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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

-96.90

#30

Def EXP

16.95

Net EXP

-79.95

Record

6-10

Pythag 5.3 (+0.7)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

−5.83

#28

SoS Rank

pts: +0.7 (#7)

Pts / Game

16.8

Home 18.9 · Road 14.8

#30

Net Pts / G

−6.6

#28

Pts Allowed / G

23.4

Home 23.4 · Road 23.4

#18

Yds / Play

4.70

#31

Yds/Play Allowed

4.90

3rd Down %

31.6%

#30

3rd Down % Allowed

36.5%

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	269	373.50	-104.50	#30
Total Yards	4778	5,635.56	-857.56	#30
Yds / Play	4.70	5.59	-0.89	#31
1st Downs	283	326.94	-43.94	#27
Turnovers	32	21.75	+10.25	#31
Fumbles Lost	9	8.66	+0.34	#20
EXP Pts	-96.90	66.06	-162.96	#30

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	374	373.50	+0.50	#18
Total Yards	4706	5,635.56	-929.56	#2
Yds / Play	4.90	5.59	-0.69	#3
1st Downs	293	326.94	-33.94	#4
Turnovers	27	21.75	+5.25	#8
Fumbles Lost	11	8.66	+2.34	#7
EXP Pts	16.95	-66.06	+83.01	#4

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 269 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	499	552.22	-53.22	#28
Pass Cmp	271	358.19	-87.19	#32
Cmp %	54.30	64.79	-10.49	#32
Pass Yds	2794	3,804.28	-1,010.28	#31
Yds / Att	5.60	6.86	-1.26	#31
Yds / Cmp	10.30	10.59	-0.29	#18
Adj Y/A	4	6.75	-2.75	#32
Adj NY/A	3.70	6.30	-2.60	#32
Pass TD	13	26.47	-13.47	#32
TD %	2.60	4.79	-2.19	#32
Pass Int	23	13.09	+9.91	#31
Int %	4.60	2.39	+2.21	#32
Sack %	7.60	6.88	+0.73	#22
Pass Rating	60.10	90.66	-30.56	#32
EXP Pts Pass	-83.95	74.79	-158.74	#31

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	492	552.22	-60.22	#31
Pass Cmp	313	358.19	-45.19	#3
Cmp %	63.60	64.88	-1.28	#11
Pass Yds	2867	3,804.28	-937.28	#1
Yds / Att	6.30	7.38	-1.08	#2
Yds / Cmp	9.90	11.38	-1.48	#1
Adj Y/A	5.70	7.28	-1.58	#2
Adj NY/A	4.90	6.33	-1.43	#2
Pass TD	22	26.47	-4.47	#11
TD %	4.50	4.82	-0.32	#13
Pass Int	16	13.09	+2.91	#7
Int %	3.30	2.38	+0.92	#4
Sack %	6.80	6.75	+0.05	#15
Pass Rating	82.60	93.10	-10.50	#3
EXP Pts Pass	-6.13	-74.79	+68.66	#4

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2018. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

81.0%

#22 of 32

PAT%

96.0%

#10 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

1 / 1

#7 of 32

Return Yards

1,014

#10 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

54 yd

FG %

81.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	3	0	100.0%
30-39	8	0	100.0%
40-49	7	2	77.8%
50-59	4	3	57.1%
60+	0	0	—

Made FG distances

20–29222329(3)

30–393031313234353536(8)

40–4940414141434647(7)

50–5950515254(4)

Missed FG distances

40–494243(2)

50–59525455(3)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

96.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

GWFG distances

40–4946(1)

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

207

Punt avg

6.7

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

807

Kickoff avg

21.2

Total return yds

1014

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

3513

Gross avg

42.8

Net yards

3076

Net avg

37.1

Long

60 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

37.8%

Touchbacks

TB %

8.5%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

297

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2018.

#21 of 32

#9 of 32

#9 of 32

#2 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2018. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

-111.4

#31 of 32

Rush EPA

-28.2

#21 of 32

Recv EPA

-43.7

#31 of 32

CPOE

-7.14

#31 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2018 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

4,943

#7 of 32

Pass YAC

1,354

#31 of 32

Recv Air Yds

4,943

#7 of 32

Recv YAC

1,354

#31 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2018. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

116

#26 of 32

Penalty Yds

992

#28 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#8 of 32

Yds / Game

62.0

#28 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Year-over-year not available — 2017 stats missing.

Last game — Week 17, 2018

W vs MIA · 42–17

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2018.

Cmp %

54.3%

#32

Pass Yds/G

174.6

#31

Pass Rating

60.1

#32

Pass TD

#32

Pass Int

#31

Sack Rate

7.6%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 16 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	16	6-10	7-9	43.8%	7-9	43.8%	-6.6	-0.2	31	+37.5
Home	8	4-4	3-5	37.5%	5-3	62.5%	-4.5	-1.0	25	+19.5
Away	8	2-6	4-4	50.0%	2-6	25.0%	-8.6	+0.6	31	+37.5
As favorite	3	2-1	1-2	—	2-1	—	+7.3	+3.2	25	+19.5
As underdog	13	4-9	6-7	46.2%	5-8	38.5%	-9.8	-1.0	31	+37.5
Division games	6	2-4	3-3	50.0%	3-3	50.0%	+2.8	+7.4	31	+37.5
Non-division	10	4-6	4-6	40.0%	4-6	40.0%	-12.2	-4.8	21	+37.5
Pick-em (≤3)	2	2-0	1-1	—	1-1	—	+2.0	+2.2	3	+6.0
Small favorite (3-7)	2	1-1	1-1	—	2-0	—	+10.5	+5.5	25	+19.5
Small underdog (3-7)	3	2-1	2-1	—	1-2	—	+9.3	+14.7	31	+37.5
Large underdog (7+)	9	1-8	3-6	33.3%	3-6	33.3%	-17.6	-6.9	21	+37.5

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2018. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


NE	New England Patriots	2	0-2	1-1	0-2	-15.5	-1.8
NYJ	New York Jets	2	1-1	1-1	2-0	+13.5	+14.5
MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	+10.5	+9.5
BAL	Baltimore Ravens	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-44.0	-36.5
LAC	Los Angeles Chargers	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-11.0	-3.5
MIN	Minnesota Vikings	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+21.0	+37.5
GB	Green Bay Packers	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-22.0	-13.5
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+1.0	+7.0
HOU	Houston Texans	1	0-1	1-0	0-1	-7.0	+3.5
IND	Indianapolis Colts	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-32.0	-25.0
CHI	Chicago Bears	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-32.0	-21.5
JAX	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+3.0	+6.0
DET	Detroit Lions	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+1.0	-1.5

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	4	1-3	1-3	2-2	25%
Oct	4	1-3	2-2	0-4	50%
Nov	3	2-1	2-1	3-0	67%
Dec	5	2-3	2-3	2-3	40%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sun	15	6-9	7-8	7-8	47%
Mon	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	9	2-7	3-6	3-6	33%
Second half (W10+)	7	4-3	4-3	4-3	57%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	3	0-3	0-3	1-2	0%
Turf	13	6-7	7-6	6-7	54%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	2-4	3-3	3-3	50%
Same conference	6	2-4	3-3	3-3	50%
Inter-conference	4	2-2	1-3	1-3	25%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	3	2-1	1-2	2-1	33%
Cool (40-59°F)	6	2-4	3-3	3-3	50%
Mild (60-74°F)	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	50%
Warm (75°F+)	2	0-2	0-2	1-1	0%
Indoor	3	1-2	2-1	0-3	67%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	11	5-6	5-6	7-4	45%
Windy (≥15 mph)	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%
Indoor	3	1-2	2-1	0-3	67%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	1
ATS	W	2
O/U	O	1

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	2
Longest SU loss streak	4
Longest ATS cover	2
Longest ATS no-cover	3
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	6

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	5	1-4	3-2	1-4	60%
After a loss	10	5-5	4-6	5-5	40%
On 2+ winning streak	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%
On 2+ losing streak	5	3-2	2-3	2-3	40%
vs winning opp.	5	2-3	3-2	1-4	60%
vs losing opp.	9	4-5	4-5	5-4	44%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	13	5-8	5-8	7-6	38%
Dome	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Retractable (closed)	2	0-2	1-1	0-2	50%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	4-4	3-5	5-3	38%
Domestic road	8	2-6	4-4	2-6	50%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	4-4	3-5	5-3	38%
Short (<500)	5	1-4	2-3	2-3	40%
Medium (500-1500)	3	1-2	2-1	0-3	67%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Standard (5-7d)	13	5-8	6-7	5-8	46%
Long week (8-10d)	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%
Bye+ (11+d)	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 1-34 G

OctATS 2-24 G

NovATS 2-13 G

DecATS 2-35 G

By day of week

SunATS 7-815 G

MonATS 0-11 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 3-69 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 4-37 G

By surface

GrassATS 0-33 G

TurfATS 7-613 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-36 G

Same conferenceATS 3-36 G

Inter-conferenceATS 1-34 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 5-813 G

DomeATS 1-01 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 1-12 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 3-58 G

Domestic roadATS 4-48 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 3-58 G

Short (<500)ATS 2-35 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 2-13 G

By rest days

Standard (5-7d)ATS 6-713 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 0-11 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 1-01 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 1-45 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 3-14 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 1-23 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 2-24 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 14.3 ptsBias -0.2 pts (Vegas priced this team accurately)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	6-10	0.523 #7	16.8	23.4	-96.90	16.95
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	7-9	0.469 #30	19.9	27.1	-44.43	-127.44
New England Patriots (NE)	11-5	0.482 #24	27.3	20.3	147.66	-17.25
New York Jets (NYJ)	4-12	0.506 #13	20.8	27.6	-97.61	-70.75

Insights

A look at how the 2018 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: offensive avg time to throw (1st of 32), offensive avg time to throw (1st of 32), and defensive avg yac allowed (2nd of 32). Weaknesses: defensive ryoe per attempt allowed (32nd of 32), offensive avg yards after catch (31st of 32), and offensive epa per pass play (31st of 32).


Drives	193	179.38	+13.63	#3
Plays / Drive	5.50	5.82	-0.32	#27
Yds / Drive	24.60	31.44	-6.84	#30
Points / Drive	1.39	2.00	-0.61	#30
Score %	26.40	36.65	-10.25	#30
Turnover %	15.50	11.71	+3.79	#29


Rush Att	468	414.75	+53.25	#6
Rush Yds	1984	1,831.28	+152.72	#9
Rush Y/A	4.20	4.42	-0.22	#21
Rush TD	15	13.72	+1.28	#11
EXP Pts Rush	-3.41	-2.64	-0.77	#16


3rd Down Att	215	201.63	+13.38	#3
3rd Down Made	68	78.88	-10.88	#30
4th Down Att	18	16.84	+1.16	#12
4th Down Made	7	9.38	-2.38	#24
Red Zone Att	37	51.22	-14.22	#29
Red Zone Scores	22	30.25	-8.25	#26


Drives	189	179.38	+9.63	#30
Plays / Drive	5.30	5.80	-0.50	#1
Yds / Drive	24.80	31.41	-6.61	#1
Points / Drive	1.83	2.00	-0.17	#11
Score %	33.30	36.52	-3.22	#7
Turnover %	14.30	11.76	+2.54	#9


Rush Att	440	414.75	+25.25	#24
Rush Yds	1839	1,831.28	+7.72	#16
Rush Y/A	4.20	4.41	-0.21	#10
Rush TD	17	13.72	+3.28	#27
EXP Pts Rush	9.55	2.64	+6.91	#11

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East