Offensive: Passing · CPOE
What CPOE is
Completion percentage over expected: the share of passes a team completed, minus the share it was expected to complete given how hard each throw was (distance, pressure, coverage). Zero means the quarterback hit exactly the throws an average passer would; a positive number means he completed passes that usually fall incomplete. It strips out the easy-checkdown offense that inflates plain completion percentage.
Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Seahawks led at 7.68; the league average was 0.61.
League snapshot — 2018
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 7.68 | 16 |
| 2 | NO | 5.54 | 16 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.21 | 16 |
| 4 | KC | 4.60 | 16 |
| 5 | HOU | 4.52 | 16 |
| 6 | LV | 4.27 | 16 |
| 7 | ATL | 4.09 | 16 |
| 8 | TB | 3.48 | 16 |
| 9 | LAC | 3.42 | 16 |
| 10 | CAR | 3.10 | 16 |
| 11 | CHI | 2.75 | 16 |
| 12 | MIN | 2.55 | 16 |
| 13 | PIT | 2.01 | 16 |
| 14 | LAR | 1.82 | 16 |
| 15 | NYG | 1.48 | 16 |
| 16 | TEN | 1.34 | 16 |
| 17 | IND | 0.89 | 16 |
| 18 | DAL | 0.86 | 16 |
| 19 | NE | 0.54 | 16 |
| 20 | CLE | 0.45 | 16 |
| 21 | MIA | 0.15 | 16 |
| 22 | DEN | -0.94 | 16 |
| 23 | GB | -1.41 | 16 |
| 24 | DET | -1.82 | 16 |
| 25 | SF | -2.37 | 16 |
| 26 | WAS | -2.94 | 16 |
| 27 | CIN | -3.37 | 16 |
| 28 | BAL | -3.76 | 16 |
| 29 | JAX | -4.94 | 16 |
| 30 | NYJ | -5.24 | 16 |
| 31 | BUF | -6.70 | 16 |
| 32 | ARI | -7.57 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 7.68 | 7.06 | 100% |
| 2 | NO | 5.54 | 4.92 | 96.8% |
| 3 | PHI | 5.21 | 4.59 | 93.5% |
| 4 | KC | 4.60 | 3.98 | 90.3% |
| 5 | HOU | 4.52 | 3.90 | 87.1% |
| 6 | LV | 4.27 | 3.65 | 83.9% |
| 7 | ATL | 4.09 | 3.47 | 80.6% |
| 8 | TB | 3.48 | 2.86 | 77.4% |
| 9 | LAC | 3.42 | 2.81 | 74.2% |
| 10 | CAR | 3.10 | 2.48 | 71% |
| 11 | CHI | 2.75 | 2.14 | 67.7% |
| 12 | MIN | 2.55 | 1.94 | 64.5% |
| 13 | PIT | 2.01 | 1.40 | 61.3% |
| 14 | LAR | 1.82 | 1.20 | 58.1% |
| 15 | NYG | 1.48 | 0.87 | 54.8% |
| 16 | TEN | 1.34 | 0.73 | 51.6% |
| 17 | IND | 0.89 | 0.27 | 48.4% |
| 18 | DAL | 0.86 | 0.25 | 45.2% |
| 19 | NE | 0.54 | -0.07 | 41.9% |
| 20 | CLE | 0.45 | -0.16 | 38.7% |
| 21 | MIA | 0.15 | -0.47 | 35.5% |
| 22 | DEN | -0.94 | -1.56 | 32.3% |
| 23 | GB | -1.41 | -2.02 | 29% |
| 24 | DET | -1.82 | -2.44 | 25.8% |
| 25 | SF | -2.37 | -2.99 | 22.6% |
| 26 | WAS | -2.94 | -3.55 | 19.4% |
| 27 | CIN | -3.37 | -3.98 | 16.1% |
| 28 | BAL | -3.76 | -4.37 | 12.9% |
| 29 | JAX | -4.94 | -5.56 | 9.7% |
| 30 | NYJ | -5.24 | -5.86 | 6.5% |
| 31 | BUF | -6.70 | -7.32 | 3.2% |
| 32 | ARI | -7.57 | -8.19 | 0% |
Does CPOE matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #90 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2024 (151–112, 57.4%); its worst 2023 (130–128, 50.4%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 135–119–2 | 53.1% |
| 2021 | 272 | 141–129–2 | 52.2% |
| 2022 | 271 | 145–119–7 | 54.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 130–128–14 | 50.4% |
| 2024 | 272 | 151–112–9 | 57.4% |
| 2025 | 272 | 154–115–3 | 57.2% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 4.66 | −0.30 | 7.22 | 4.24 | 5.64 | 0.97 | 5.28 | 5.74 | 3.52 |
| 2 | CIN | 3.15 | +0.58 | -1.24 | 5.05 | 2.76 | 2.13 | 6.85 | 1.18 | 5.35 |
| 3 | BUF | 3.01 | −0.04 | 5.98 | 1.94 | 0.06 | 4.39 | 0.97 | 3.36 | 4.38 |
| 4 | GB | 2.87 | −0.97 | 7.35 | 5.08 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 2.31 | 5.04 | -2.05 |
| 5 | BAL | 2.86 | +1.33 | 0.15 | 0.39 | -1.69 | 3.56 | 6.08 | 3.80 | 7.73 |
| 6 | NE | 2.60 | +1.58 | -2.19 | 2.97 | 1.06 | -3.45 | 1.63 | 11.57 | 6.61 |
| 7 | SF | 2.58 | +1.14 | -1.26 | 2.34 | -1.64 | 5.42 | 1.33 | 5.93 | 5.98 |
| 8 | KC | 1.86 | −0.64 | 3.16 | 3.54 | 3.17 | 1.45 | 2.23 | -1.35 | 0.80 |
| 9 | MIN | 1.68 | −0.58 | 4.27 | 0.36 | 2.29 | 2.91 | 4.70 | -3.20 | 0.44 |
| 10 | DET | 1.53 | +0.76 | -0.92 | 0.22 | -1.46 | 1.45 | 7.13 | 2.59 | 1.71 |
| 11 | PHI | 1.39 | +0.60 | -4.93 | 0.91 | 1.91 | 4.26 | 6.49 | 4.07 | -3.01 |
| 12 | TB | 1.08 | −0.39 | 3.15 | 1.59 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 3.63 | -2.36 | 1.07 |
| 13 | ARI | 1.01 | −0.18 | 1.71 | 4.60 | -1.33 | -2.55 | 2.45 | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| 14 | JAX | 0.75 | +0.98 | -0.18 | -4.08 | 1.38 | 2.16 | -0.53 | -1.13 | 7.65 |
| 15 | MIA | 0.68 | −0.89 | 2.36 | 0.47 | -0.04 | 5.09 | 3.12 | 1.49 | -7.72 |
| 16 | DAL | 0.61 | +0.29 | -1.22 | 2.56 | -1.08 | 3.47 | -4.38 | 1.85 | 3.04 |
| 17 | NO | 0.54 | +0.25 | 2.36 | -4.05 | 1.23 | 2.93 | -2.67 | 2.19 | 1.81 |
| 18 | WAS | 0.47 | +0.45 | -1.38 | 0.39 | -1.64 | -0.54 | 5.21 | 1.26 | -0.02 |
| 19 | TEN | 0.38 | −0.37 | 1.66 | 2.42 | -1.02 | 1.44 | 0.08 | -4.16 | 2.26 |
| 20 | PIT | -0.02 | +0.11 | -0.91 | -2.44 | 1.36 | 0.31 | 3.68 | 0.51 | -2.64 |
| 21 | LV | -0.15 | −0.22 | 2.35 | 2.60 | -2.18 | -3.93 | -1.37 | -0.79 | 2.28 |
| 22 | HOU | -0.15 | −0.18 | 6.42 | -1.68 | -4.33 | -1.38 | -2.76 | -1.33 | 4.00 |
| 23 | LAC | -0.20 | −0.53 | 0.75 | -0.13 | 1.76 | -1.89 | 2.25 | 0.79 | -4.96 |
| 24 | CAR | -0.48 | +1.11 | 2.56 | -7.01 | -4.73 | -1.48 | 0.01 | 1.74 | 5.52 |
| 25 | DEN | -0.53 | +0.19 | -6.08 | 2.34 | -0.62 | 3.52 | 0.77 | -1.24 | -2.39 |
| 26 | LAR | -0.60 | +0.15 | 0.66 | 0.00 | -2.73 | -3.17 | -0.98 | 1.72 | 0.29 |
| 27 | CHI | -0.83 | +0.37 | 1.14 | -2.96 | -4.18 | 0.14 | -0.08 | -3.29 | 3.41 |
| 28 | NYG | -1.31 | +0.11 | -1.90 | -5.10 | 2.30 | -0.21 | -0.41 | -1.36 | -2.51 |
| 29 | ATL | -1.34 | −0.88 | 1.16 | 0.59 | -0.44 | -2.88 | 0.12 | -3.06 | -4.85 |
| 30 | CLE | -1.76 | −1.09 | 3.75 | -0.73 | 1.24 | -5.58 | -3.90 | -5.51 | -1.57 |
| 31 | IND | -2.20 | −0.17 | 0.19 | -2.97 | -1.65 | -3.28 | -6.00 | 0.58 | -2.28 |
| 32 | NYJ | -3.34 | +0.73 | -1.45 | -7.75 | -4.73 | -5.32 | -1.54 | -5.18 | 2.62 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0.15 | 0.39 | -1.69 | 3.56 | 6.08 | 3.80 | 7.73 |
| JAX | -0.18 | -4.08 | 1.38 | 2.16 | -0.53 | -1.13 | 7.65 |
| NE | -2.19 | 2.97 | 1.06 | -3.45 | 1.63 | 11.57 | 6.61 |
| SF | -1.26 | 2.34 | -1.64 | 5.42 | 1.33 | 5.93 | 5.98 |
| CAR | 2.56 | -7.01 | -4.73 | -1.48 | 0.01 | 1.74 | 5.52 |
| CIN | -1.24 | 5.05 | 2.76 | 2.13 | 6.85 | 1.18 | 5.35 |
| BUF | 5.98 | 1.94 | 0.06 | 4.39 | 0.97 | 3.36 | 4.38 |
| HOU | 6.42 | -1.68 | -4.33 | -1.38 | -2.76 | -1.33 | 4.00 |
| SEA | 7.22 | 4.24 | 5.64 | 0.97 | 5.28 | 5.74 | 3.52 |
| CHI | 1.14 | -2.96 | -4.18 | 0.14 | -0.08 | -3.29 | 3.41 |
| DAL | -1.22 | 2.56 | -1.08 | 3.47 | -4.38 | 1.85 | 3.04 |
| NYJ | -1.45 | -7.75 | -4.73 | -5.32 | -1.54 | -5.18 | 2.62 |
| LV | 2.35 | 2.60 | -2.18 | -3.93 | -1.37 | -0.79 | 2.28 |
| TEN | 1.66 | 2.42 | -1.02 | 1.44 | 0.08 | -4.16 | 2.26 |
| NO | 2.36 | -4.05 | 1.23 | 2.93 | -2.67 | 2.19 | 1.81 |
| DET | -0.92 | 0.22 | -1.46 | 1.45 | 7.13 | 2.59 | 1.71 |
| ARI | 1.71 | 4.60 | -1.33 | -2.55 | 2.45 | 0.99 | 1.21 |
| TB | 3.15 | 1.59 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 3.63 | -2.36 | 1.07 |
| KC | 3.16 | 3.54 | 3.17 | 1.45 | 2.23 | -1.35 | 0.80 |
| MIN | 4.27 | 0.36 | 2.29 | 2.91 | 4.70 | -3.20 | 0.44 |
| LAR | 0.66 | 0.00 | -2.73 | -3.17 | -0.98 | 1.72 | 0.29 |
| WAS | -1.38 | 0.39 | -1.64 | -0.54 | 5.21 | 1.26 | -0.02 |
| CLE | 3.75 | -0.73 | 1.24 | -5.58 | -3.90 | -5.51 | -1.57 |
| GB | 7.35 | 5.08 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 2.31 | 5.04 | -2.05 |
| IND | 0.19 | -2.97 | -1.65 | -3.28 | -6.00 | 0.58 | -2.28 |
| DEN | -6.08 | 2.34 | -0.62 | 3.52 | 0.77 | -1.24 | -2.39 |
| NYG | -1.90 | -5.10 | 2.30 | -0.21 | -0.41 | -1.36 | -2.51 |
| PIT | -0.91 | -2.44 | 1.36 | 0.31 | 3.68 | 0.51 | -2.64 |
| PHI | -4.93 | 0.91 | 1.91 | 4.26 | 6.49 | 4.07 | -3.01 |
| ATL | 1.16 | 0.59 | -0.44 | -2.88 | 0.12 | -3.06 | -4.85 |
| LAC | 0.75 | -0.13 | 1.76 | -1.89 | 2.25 | 0.79 | -4.96 |
| MIA | 2.36 | 0.47 | -0.04 | 5.09 | 3.12 | 1.49 | -7.72 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- off_passing_pass_cpoe
- Side
- offensive
- Family
- Passing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- rate
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.