Algorithm picks and results

Every game the site's own algorithm has an opinion on: its rating for each team, the market number, the side it takes and how that turned out.

Its record

  • 58.6%2023–2026Replayed against each full season467-330-19 against the spread
  • 53.2%2023–2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then441-388-20 against the spread
  • 50.0%2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then16-16-1 against the spread

The two numbers cover the same games. The higher one replays the algorithm against each season in full; the lower is it picking week to week with only what was known at the time. Break-even against the spread is 52.4% after the standard vig.

The record, drawn

Against the spread, by season

Picking week to week with only what was known at the time — the seasons this algorithm has actually been live for.

Week by week

Each week on its own, as a rate rather than a count of wins — a sixteen-game week and a bye-shortened one are comparable this way.

How much it wins and loses by

Every graded game, by how far it beat or missed the number. A percentage says how often; this says by how much — a record built on half-point escapes and one built on comfortable margins read identically until you draw them.

2026 picks are the algorithm's own, made before each game and graded on the closing spread.

Week 1
NENew England Patriots1-110
SEASeattle Seahawks2-013
FinalPush vs the spread
Vegas SEA -3Total 44.5
Power rating NE 99.3 (24th) · SEA 100.7 (10th)
Algorithm took SEA — push
NE 15.0 scored (28th) · 8.0 allowed (1st)SEA 22.0 scored (17th) · 8.5 allowed (2nd)
SFSan Francisco 49ers2-027
LARLos Angeles Rams1-17
FinalSF covered
Vegas LAR -3.5Total 47.5
Power rating SF 102.2 (2nd) · LAR 100.6 (12th)
Algorithm took LAR — wrong
SF 31.0 scored (6th) · 10.0 allowed (3rd)LAR 17.5 scored (22nd) · 16.5 allowed (9th)
CHIChicago Bears1-159
CARCarolina Panthers1-137
FinalCHI covered
Vegas CHI -3Total 47.5
Power rating CHI 101.0 (7th) · CAR 100.8 (9th)
Algorithm took CHI — correct
CHI 31.0 scored (4th) · 23.0 allowed (16th)CAR 35.5 scored (2nd) · 31.0 allowed (29th)
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers0-227
CINCincinnati Bengals2-033
FinalCIN covered
Vegas CIN -3.5Total 50.5
Power rating TB 98.8 (28th) · CIN 99.7 (19th)
Algorithm took CIN — correct
TB 23.0 scored (16th) · 28.0 allowed (25th)CIN 26.5 scored (10th) · 16.5 allowed (8th)
NONew Orleans Saints1-130
DETDetroit Lions1-131
FinalNO covered
Vegas DET -7Total 49.5
Power rating NO 100.6 (11th) · DET 101.3 (5th)
Algorithm took DET — wrong
NO 27.0 scored (9th) · 24.0 allowed (20th)DET 31.0 scored (5th) · 35.5 allowed (31st)
BUFBuffalo Bills2-036
HOUHouston Texans0-231
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -1.5Total 44.5
Power rating BUF 102.9 (1st) · HOU 99.4 (23rd)
Algorithm took BUF — correct
BUF 38.5 scored (1st) · 31.0 allowed (28th)HOU 18.5 scored (21st) · 28.0 allowed (24th)
BALBaltimore Ravens1-141
INDIndianapolis Colts0-223
FinalBAL covered
Vegas BAL -3Total 48.5
Power rating BAL 101.1 (6th) · IND 100.0 (16th)
Algorithm took IND — wrong
BAL 29.0 scored (7th) · 23.5 allowed (17th)IND 26.5 scored (11th) · 37.0 allowed (32nd)
CLECleveland Browns1-110
JAXJacksonville Jaguars1-134
FinalJAX covered
Vegas JAX -8.5Total 40.5
Power rating CLE 99.0 (26th) · JAX 101.0 (8th)
Algorithm took JAX — correct
CLE 16.5 scored (26th) · 26.5 allowed (23rd)JAX 23.5 scored (15th) · 15.0 allowed (6th)
ATLAtlanta Falcons1-213
PITPittsburgh Steelers1-120
FinalPIT covered
Vegas PIT -6.5Total 40.5
Power rating ATL 96.5 (32nd) · PIT 97.3 (31st)
Algorithm took PIT — correct
ATL 17.0 scored (23rd) · 22.7 allowed (15th)PIT 11.5 scored (32nd) · 16.5 allowed (10th)
NYJNew York Jets1-123
TENTennessee Titans0-210
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas TEN -1.5Total 39.5
Power rating NYJ 99.8 (17th) · TEN 99.6 (20th)
Algorithm took TEN — wrong
NYJ 20.0 scored (19th) · 15.0 allowed (7th)TEN 15.0 scored (29th) · 23.5 allowed (18th)
ARIArizona Cardinals1-126
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-214
FinalARI covered
Vegas LAC -8.5Total 47.5
Power rating ARI 99.5 (21st) · LAC 98.7 (30th)
Algorithm took LAC — wrong
ARI 16.5 scored (25th) · 22.5 allowed (14th)LAC 14.0 scored (30th) · 26.0 allowed (22nd)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-213
LVLas Vegas Raiders2-027
FinalLV covered
Vegas LV -3Total 40.5
Power rating MIA 99.0 (25th) · LV 99.5 (22nd)
Algorithm took LV — correct
MIA 13.0 scored (31st) · 31.0 allowed (30th)LV 26.5 scored (12th) · 13.5 allowed (5th)
GBGreen Bay Packers1-222
MINMinnesota Vikings2-039
FinalMIN covered
Vegas MIN -1.5Total 46.5
Power rating GB 98.8 (29th) · MIN 99.7 (18th)
Algorithm took MIN — correct
GB 18.7 scored (20th) · 30.3 allowed (26th)MIN 24.0 scored (13th) · 12.5 allowed (4th)
WASWashington Commanders0-222
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-024
FinalWAS covered
Vegas PHI -6Total 43.5
Power rating WAS 100.3 (13th) · PHI 100.2 (15th)
Algorithm took PHI — wrong
WAS 21.0 scored (18th) · 30.5 allowed (27th)PHI 24.0 scored (14th) · 21.0 allowed (12th)
DALDallas Cowboys1-120
NYGNew York Giants1-128
FinalNYG covered
Vegas DAL -3Total 47.5
Power rating DAL 102.1 (3rd) · NYG 100.2 (14th)
Algorithm took NYG — correct
DAL 28.5 scored (8th) · 24.0 allowed (19th)NYG 17.0 scored (24th) · 24.0 allowed (21st)
DENDenver Broncos1-110
KCKansas City Chiefs2-031
FinalKC covered
Vegas KC -2.5Total 42.5
Power rating DEN 98.9 (27th) · KC 101.4 (4th)
Algorithm took KC — correct
DEN 15.0 scored (27th) · 22.0 allowed (13th)KC 32.0 scored (3rd) · 20.0 allowed (11th)
Week 2
DETDetroit Lions1-131
BUFBuffalo Bills2-041
FinalBUF covered
Vegas BUF -5.5Total 54.5
Power rating DET 101.3 (5th) · BUF 102.9 (1st)
Algorithm took BUF — correct
DET 31.0 scored (5th) · 35.5 allowed (31st)BUF 38.5 scored (1st) · 31.0 allowed (28th)
CARCarolina Panthers1-134
ATLAtlanta Falcons1-23
FinalCAR covered
Vegas CAR -2.5Total 43.5
Power rating CAR 100.8 (9th) · ATL 96.5 (32nd)
Algorithm took ATL — wrong
CAR 35.5 scored (2nd) · 31.0 allowed (29th)ATL 17.0 scored (23rd) · 22.7 allowed (15th)
NONew Orleans Saints1-124
BALBaltimore Ravens1-117
FinalNO covered
Vegas BAL -8.5Total 45.5
Power rating NO 100.6 (11th) · BAL 101.1 (6th)
Algorithm took BAL — wrong
NO 27.0 scored (9th) · 24.0 allowed (20th)BAL 29.0 scored (7th) · 23.5 allowed (17th)
MINMinnesota Vikings2-09
CHIChicago Bears1-13
FinalMIN covered
Vegas CHI -4.5Total 46.5
Power rating MIN 99.7 (18th) · CHI 101.0 (7th)
Algorithm took CHI — wrong
MIN 24.0 scored (13th) · 12.5 allowed (4th)CHI 31.0 scored (4th) · 23.0 allowed (16th)
CINCincinnati Bengals2-020
HOUHouston Texans0-26
FinalCIN covered
Vegas HOU -3Total 45.5
Power rating CIN 99.7 (19th) · HOU 99.4 (23rd)
Algorithm took HOU — wrong
CIN 26.5 scored (10th) · 16.5 allowed (8th)HOU 18.5 scored (21st) · 28.0 allowed (24th)
PITPittsburgh Steelers1-13
NENew England Patriots1-120
FinalNE covered
Vegas NE -4.5Total 41.5
Power rating PIT 97.3 (31st) · NE 99.3 (24th)
Algorithm took NE — correct
PIT 11.5 scored (32nd) · 16.5 allowed (10th)NE 15.0 scored (28th) · 8.0 allowed (1st)
GBGreen Bay Packers1-220
NYJNew York Jets1-117
FinalNYJ covered
Vegas GB -3.5Total 44.5
Power rating GB 98.8 (29th) · NYJ 99.8 (17th)
Algorithm took GB — wrong
GB 18.7 scored (20th) · 30.3 allowed (26th)NYJ 20.0 scored (19th) · 15.0 allowed (7th)
CLECleveland Browns1-123
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers0-219
FinalCLE covered
Vegas TB -8.5Total 41.5
Power rating CLE 99.0 (26th) · TB 98.8 (28th)
Algorithm took TB — wrong
CLE 16.5 scored (26th) · 26.5 allowed (23rd)TB 23.0 scored (16th) · 28.0 allowed (25th)
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles2-024
TENTennessee Titans0-220
FinalTEN covered
Vegas PHI -7Total 39.5
Power rating PHI 100.2 (15th) · TEN 99.6 (20th)
Algorithm took PHI — wrong
PHI 24.0 scored (14th) · 21.0 allowed (12th)TEN 15.0 scored (29th) · 23.5 allowed (18th)
JAXJacksonville Jaguars1-113
DENDenver Broncos1-120
FinalDEN covered
Vegas DEN -2.5Total 45.5
Power rating JAX 101.0 (8th) · DEN 98.9 (27th)
Algorithm took DEN — correct
JAX 23.5 scored (15th) · 15.0 allowed (6th)DEN 15.0 scored (27th) · 22.0 allowed (13th)
LVLas Vegas Raiders2-026
LACLos Angeles Chargers0-214
FinalLV covered
Vegas LAC -6.5Total 43.5
Power rating LV 99.5 (22nd) · LAC 98.7 (30th)
Algorithm took LAC — wrong
LV 26.5 scored (12th) · 13.5 allowed (5th)LAC 14.0 scored (30th) · 26.0 allowed (22nd)
SEASeattle Seahawks2-031
ARIArizona Cardinals1-17
FinalSEA covered
Vegas SEA -3.5Total 40.5
Power rating SEA 100.7 (10th) · ARI 99.5 (21st)
Algorithm took SEA — correct
SEA 22.0 scored (17th) · 8.5 allowed (2nd)ARI 16.5 scored (25th) · 22.5 allowed (14th)
WASWashington Commanders0-220
DALDallas Cowboys1-137
FinalDAL covered
Vegas DAL -3.5Total 51.5
Power rating WAS 100.3 (13th) · DAL 102.1 (3rd)
Algorithm took DAL — correct
WAS 21.0 scored (18th) · 30.5 allowed (27th)DAL 28.5 scored (8th) · 24.0 allowed (19th)
MIAMiami Dolphins0-213
SFSan Francisco 49ers2-035
FinalSF covered
Vegas SF -12.5Total 44.5
Power rating MIA 99.0 (25th) · SF 102.2 (2nd)
Algorithm took SF — correct
MIA 13.0 scored (31st) · 31.0 allowed (30th)SF 31.0 scored (6th) · 10.0 allowed (3rd)
INDIndianapolis Colts0-230
KCKansas City Chiefs2-033
FinalIND covered
Vegas KC -6Total 46.5
Power rating IND 100.0 (16th) · KC 101.4 (4th)
Algorithm took KC — wrong
IND 26.5 scored (11th) · 37.0 allowed (32nd)KC 32.0 scored (3rd) · 20.0 allowed (11th)
NYGNew York Giants1-16
LARLos Angeles Rams1-128
FinalLAR covered
Vegas LAR -6.5Total 47.5
Power rating NYG 100.2 (14th) · LAR 100.6 (12th)
Algorithm took LAR — correct
NYG 17.0 scored (24th) · 24.0 allowed (21st)LAR 17.5 scored (22nd) · 16.5 allowed (9th)
Week 3
ATLAtlanta Falcons1-235
GBGreen Bay Packers1-214
FinalATL covered
Vegas GB -4.5GB -6 → GB -4.5Total 43.5
Power rating ATL 96.5 (32nd) · GB 98.8 (29th)
Algorithm took ATL — correct
ATL 17.0 scored (23rd) · 22.7 allowed (15th)GB 18.7 scored (20th) · 30.3 allowed (26th)