What Pass EPA is

Passing EPA: expected points added on pass plays — each throw valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, given down, distance and field position. One of the better single measures of passing quality, because a first-down conversion counts for more than the same yards that end short of the sticks.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Chiefs led at 13.88; the league average was 2.02.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

KC · 13.88

League average

2.02

Best to worst

24.56

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	13.88	16
2	NO	9.29	16
3	PIT	8.69	16
4	LAC	8.29	16
5	LAR	7.51	16
6	ATL	7.46	16
7	IND	6.88	16
8	TB	6.34	16
9	NE	5.74	16
10	SEA	4.03	16
11	HOU	3.73	16
12	PHI	3.64	16
13	CHI	3.31	16
14	CAR	2.15	16
15	NYG	1.99	16
16	GB	1.65	16
17	DAL	1.50	16
18	BAL	0.92	16
19	CIN	0.68	16
20	SF	0.34	16
21	CLE	0.20	16
22	LV	-0.17	16
23	TEN	-0.36	16
24	DET	-0.37	16
25	MIN	-0.67	16
26	DEN	-0.92	16
27	NYJ	-2.91	16
28	WAS	-3.29	16
29	MIA	-3.39	16
30	JAX	-3.86	16
31	BUF	-6.96	16
32	ARI	-10.68	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 13.88

League laggard

ARI · -10.68

League average

2.02

Spread (max − min)

24.56

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	13.88	11.86	100%
2	NO	9.29	7.27	96.8%
3	PIT	8.69	6.67	93.5%
4	LAC	8.29	6.27	90.3%
5	LAR	7.51	5.49	87.1%
6	ATL	7.46	5.43	83.9%
7	IND	6.88	4.86	80.6%
8	TB	6.34	4.32	77.4%
9	NE	5.74	3.72	74.2%
10	SEA	4.03	2.01	71%
11	HOU	3.73	1.71	67.7%
12	PHI	3.64	1.62	64.5%
13	CHI	3.31	1.29	61.3%
14	CAR	2.15	0.13	58.1%
15	NYG	1.99	-0.03	54.8%
16	GB	1.65	-0.37	51.6%
17	DAL	1.50	-0.52	48.4%
18	BAL	0.92	-1.10	45.2%
19	CIN	0.68	-1.34	41.9%
20	SF	0.34	-1.68	38.7%
21	CLE	0.20	-1.82	35.5%
22	LV	-0.17	-2.19	32.3%
23	TEN	-0.36	-2.38	29%
24	DET	-0.37	-2.39	25.8%
25	MIN	-0.67	-2.69	22.6%
26	DEN	-0.92	-2.94	19.4%
27	NYJ	-2.91	-4.93	16.1%
28	WAS	-3.29	-5.31	12.9%
29	MIA	-3.39	-5.41	9.7%
30	JAX	-3.86	-5.89	6.5%
31	BUF	-6.96	-8.98	3.2%
32	ARI	-10.68	-12.70	0%

Does Pass EPA matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 883–695–37 ATS (56.0%) across 2020–2025, #44 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (158–105, 60.1%); its worst 2023 (139–119, 53.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	153–117–2	56.7%
2022	271	144–120–7	54.5%
2023	272	139–119–14	53.9%
2024	272	158–105–9	60.1%
2025	272	149–120–3	55.4%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 7.01

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -3.92

Biggest improver

DET · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.25/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	7.01	−0.14	11.09	4.59	6.00	5.39	7.80	5.71	8.46
2	KC	6.59	−1.44	12.62	8.64	11.04	2.23	3.71	1.46	6.45
3	SF	6.42	+0.92	2.27	6.23	6.19	8.41	4.02	6.30	11.51
4	DET	5.85	+1.86	1.93	-1.23	6.12	4.89	10.14	6.08	13.05
5	GB	5.67	−0.62	11.51	7.16	-0.10	5.30	4.56	6.99	4.30
6	DAL	4.01	+0.87	-0.85	7.14	1.87	6.86	-2.72	6.70	9.07
7	CIN	3.82	+0.32	0.97	5.37	5.47	0.78	6.77	0.79	6.56
8	LAR	3.38	+0.93	1.41	6.37	-4.01	2.57	2.02	8.85	6.42
9	BAL	3.35	+1.02	2.44	-0.04	-1.01	3.70	10.03	0.27	8.05
10	TB	3.25	−2.01	8.18	8.49	2.96	2.78	6.81	-0.70	-5.75
11	SEA	2.17	−0.16	4.94	0.90	1.29	1.91	0.50	4.02	1.65
12	LAC	1.45	−1.80	5.61	7.02	1.58	-0.15	3.73	-1.37	-6.29
13	JAX	1.34	+1.46	-2.65	-3.47	4.23	0.32	0.17	2.43	8.38
14	MIA	1.32	−0.86	2.26	-0.27	3.64	6.57	2.56	0.29	-5.78
15	MIN	1.13	−1.29	5.82	3.38	1.70	0.16	3.35	-5.95	-0.57
16	PHI	0.94	+0.25	-5.76	1.85	4.63	3.69	3.35	1.87	-3.05
17	NE	0.60	+0.89	-1.42	4.58	-1.45	-8.10	-3.12	9.57	4.14
18	HOU	0.55	+0.03	8.12	-3.55	-6.65	2.20	-0.96	1.82	2.89
19	LV	0.29	−0.47	4.27	2.16	1.15	-2.64	-3.70	-6.33	7.12
20	ATL	0.14	−0.64	4.36	-0.99	0.75	-2.53	2.02	0.25	-2.90
21	NO	0.04	−0.71	4.55	-1.89	1.51	1.16	-2.66	-1.41	-0.99
22	ARI	-0.18	−0.19	1.41	4.72	-5.14	-5.93	3.80	0.28	-0.38
23	DEN	-0.42	+0.56	-3.92	2.57	-5.07	-0.60	2.35	3.46	-1.76
24	PIT	-0.47	−0.40	3.87	-3.36	0.14	-2.69	0.26	1.73	-3.26
25	IND	-0.51	−0.85	5.97	0.59	-6.08	0.01	-2.04	2.80	-4.82
26	WAS	-1.45	+0.88	-3.98	-2.12	-3.54	-5.15	4.66	-0.38	0.36
27	TEN	-1.69	−2.25	7.78	1.68	-1.56	-1.86	-3.93	-7.83	-6.09
28	CHI	-1.77	+0.99	-0.44	-5.45	-5.02	-3.80	-3.14	2.82	2.62
29	CAR	-1.86	+1.44	0.76	-7.78	-2.46	-9.22	-2.90	-1.63	10.21
30	NYG	-2.65	+0.85	-2.10	-7.71	0.62	-6.59	-5.66	0.39	2.53
31	CLE	-3.02	−1.51	5.77	-0.95	-0.60	-6.17	-10.29	-9.66	0.73
32	NYJ	-3.92	+0.83	-5.26	-4.43	-3.88	-10.97	1.26	-5.93	1.75

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	1.93	-1.23	6.12	4.89	10.14	6.08	13.05
SF	2.27	6.23	6.19	8.41	4.02	6.30	11.51
CAR	0.76	-7.78	-2.46	-9.22	-2.90	-1.63	10.21
DAL	-0.85	7.14	1.87	6.86	-2.72	6.70	9.07
BUF	11.09	4.59	6.00	5.39	7.80	5.71	8.46
JAX	-2.65	-3.47	4.23	0.32	0.17	2.43	8.38
BAL	2.44	-0.04	-1.01	3.70	10.03	0.27	8.05
LV	4.27	2.16	1.15	-2.64	-3.70	-6.33	7.12
CIN	0.97	5.37	5.47	0.78	6.77	0.79	6.56
KC	12.62	8.64	11.04	2.23	3.71	1.46	6.45
LAR	1.41	6.37	-4.01	2.57	2.02	8.85	6.42
GB	11.51	7.16	-0.10	5.30	4.56	6.99	4.30
NE	-1.42	4.58	-1.45	-8.10	-3.12	9.57	4.14
HOU	8.12	-3.55	-6.65	2.20	-0.96	1.82	2.89
CHI	-0.44	-5.45	-5.02	-3.80	-3.14	2.82	2.62
NYG	-2.10	-7.71	0.62	-6.59	-5.66	0.39	2.53
NYJ	-5.26	-4.43	-3.88	-10.97	1.26	-5.93	1.75
SEA	4.94	0.90	1.29	1.91	0.50	4.02	1.65
CLE	5.77	-0.95	-0.60	-6.17	-10.29	-9.66	0.73
WAS	-3.98	-2.12	-3.54	-5.15	4.66	-0.38	0.36
ARI	1.41	4.72	-5.14	-5.93	3.80	0.28	-0.38
MIN	5.82	3.38	1.70	0.16	3.35	-5.95	-0.57
NO	4.55	-1.89	1.51	1.16	-2.66	-1.41	-0.99
DEN	-3.92	2.57	-5.07	-0.60	2.35	3.46	-1.76
ATL	4.36	-0.99	0.75	-2.53	2.02	0.25	-2.90
PHI	-5.76	1.85	4.63	3.69	3.35	1.87	-3.05
PIT	3.87	-3.36	0.14	-2.69	0.26	1.73	-3.26
IND	5.97	0.59	-6.08	0.01	-2.04	2.80	-4.82
TB	8.18	8.49	2.96	2.78	6.81	-0.70	-5.75
MIA	2.26	-0.27	3.64	6.57	2.56	0.29	-5.78
TEN	7.78	1.68	-1.56	-1.86	-3.93	-7.83	-6.09
LAC	5.61	7.02	1.58	-0.15	3.73	-1.37	-6.29

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

Related stats

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_pass_epa
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.