What Rush EPA is

Rushing EPA: expected points added on running plays — each run valued by how much it changed the chance of scoring, given down, distance and field position. It is usually smaller than passing EPA and often negative league-wide, because the average run loses expected points; a positive number is a genuinely good running game.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Rams led at 1.80; the league average was -1.19.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

LAR · 1.80

League average

-1.19

Best to worst

6.17

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAR	1.80	16
2	CAR	1.61	16
3	GB	1.46	16
4	KC	1.30	16
5	SEA	1.17	16
6	DEN	-0.08	16
7	NE	-0.11	16
8	BAL	-0.22	16
9	DAL	-0.26	16
10	LAC	-0.26	16
11	NO	-0.40	16
12	NYG	-0.55	16
13	WAS	-0.72	16
14	PIT	-0.82	16
15	CLE	-0.91	16
16	CHI	-1.06	16
17	TEN	-1.15	16
18	CIN	-1.21	16
19	IND	-1.52	16
20	PHI	-1.54	16
21	BUF	-1.76	16
22	ATL	-2.06	16
23	JAX	-2.39	16
24	MIA	-2.45	16
25	DET	-2.49	16
26	TB	-2.50	16
27	HOU	-2.68	16
28	SF	-3.15	16
29	LV	-3.19	16
30	ARI	-3.48	16
31	NYJ	-4.12	16
32	MIN	-4.37	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAR · 1.80

League laggard

MIN · -4.37

League average

-1.19

Spread (max − min)

6.17

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAR	1.80	2.99	100%
2	CAR	1.61	2.80	96.8%
3	GB	1.46	2.66	93.5%
4	KC	1.30	2.49	90.3%
5	SEA	1.17	2.36	87.1%
6	DEN	-0.08	1.11	83.9%
7	NE	-0.11	1.08	80.6%
8	BAL	-0.22	0.97	77.4%
9	DAL	-0.26	0.94	74.2%
10	LAC	-0.26	0.93	71%
11	NO	-0.40	0.79	67.7%
12	NYG	-0.55	0.64	64.5%
13	WAS	-0.72	0.47	61.3%
14	PIT	-0.82	0.37	58.1%
15	CLE	-0.91	0.28	54.8%
16	CHI	-1.06	0.13	51.6%
17	TEN	-1.15	0.04	48.4%
18	CIN	-1.21	-0.02	45.2%
19	IND	-1.52	-0.33	41.9%
20	PHI	-1.54	-0.35	38.7%
21	BUF	-1.76	-0.57	35.5%
22	ATL	-2.06	-0.87	32.3%
23	JAX	-2.39	-1.20	29%
24	MIA	-2.45	-1.26	25.8%
25	DET	-2.49	-1.30	22.6%
26	TB	-2.50	-1.31	19.4%
27	HOU	-2.68	-1.49	16.1%
28	SF	-3.15	-1.96	12.9%
29	LV	-3.19	-1.99	9.7%
30	ARI	-3.48	-2.29	6.5%
31	NYJ	-4.12	-2.93	3.2%
32	MIN	-4.37	-3.18	0%

Does Rush EPA matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 812–766–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #207 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (138–116, 54.3%); its worst 2021 (128–142, 47.4%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	138–116–2	54.3%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	140–124–7	53.0%
2023	272	134–124–14	51.9%
2024	272	141–122–9	53.6%
2025	272	131–138–3	48.7%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BAL · 2.07

Multi-year laggard

LV · -3.62

Biggest improver

BUF · +0.70/yr

Biggest decliner

LV · −1.08/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BAL	2.07	−0.10	4.31	0.62	1.92	0.40	2.96	2.48	1.82
2	BUF	1.80	+0.70	-1.32	1.79	0.77	2.01	2.83	2.43	4.11
3	PHI	0.68	−0.53	-0.62	2.53	3.08	0.61	3.29	-0.63	-3.52
4	KC	0.68	+0.27	-0.06	1.14	0.90	-1.07	0.15	0.50	3.16
5	CHI	0.27	+0.08	-0.81	-1.18	2.96	1.20	-1.61	1.94	-0.62
6	ARI	0.06	−0.33	1.81	-0.53	-0.61	1.10	1.28	-1.27	-1.38
7	WAS	0.04	+0.22	-0.17	-0.87	-1.71	-0.51	3.98	0.28	-0.73
8	IND	-0.25	+0.48	-1.15	2.31	-3.89	-2.42	-1.25	2.00	2.67
9	SF	-0.48	+0.16	-1.81	-0.11	-1.27	1.12	-0.07	-1.09	-0.11
10	NE	-0.69	−0.34	1.80	0.40	-1.62	-2.21	-1.85	-0.85	-0.46
11	GB	-0.85	−0.93	1.45	0.86	0.30	-1.82	0.23	-0.90	-6.06
12	TEN	-0.95	−0.61	3.00	0.05	-2.26	-1.58	-2.96	-1.48	-1.44
13	CAR	-0.95	−0.24	-0.51	-1.09	0.46	-1.96	0.22	-1.14	-2.66
14	DAL	-1.06	+0.07	-1.19	-1.31	-0.71	-0.32	-3.04	-0.55	-0.28
15	CLE	-1.08	−0.75	-0.43	1.57	1.44	-2.82	-1.52	-1.30	-4.52
16	JAX	-1.21	+0.20	-0.76	-1.39	-1.45	-3.83	-0.80	-0.49	0.29
17	LAR	-1.24	+0.20	-2.32	-2.11	-0.99	0.20	-1.72	-0.24	-1.50
18	TB	-1.27	+0.49	-1.42	-0.14	-5.01	-4.53	1.22	0.05	0.98
19	PIT	-1.28	+0.44	-3.75	-1.19	0.33	-2.17	-2.84	0.21	0.47
20	ATL	-1.32	+0.61	-2.63	-3.82	0.63	-3.78	0.01	-1.13	1.48
21	DET	-1.34	+0.37	-2.43	-2.24	-2.16	-1.24	0.56	-1.45	-0.45
22	CIN	-1.41	+0.31	-2.92	-2.12	-1.28	-1.45	-0.56	0.41	-1.95
23	NYG	-1.51	−0.24	-1.27	-2.06	1.79	-3.89	-1.70	0.86	-4.28
24	SEA	-1.51	−1.01	0.53	0.96	-0.75	-1.26	-1.21	-2.17	-6.68
25	MIA	-1.81	+0.29	-2.12	-3.42	-0.91	-0.70	-4.90	-0.73	0.14
26	DEN	-1.82	+0.12	-2.35	-2.02	-2.19	-2.05	-0.84	-0.55	-2.70
27	NO	-1.82	−0.21	1.20	-3.05	-3.06	-3.07	0.07	-2.95	-1.90
28	MIN	-1.97	−0.44	0.56	-2.43	-2.59	-1.68	-2.05	-0.76	-4.84
29	NYJ	-2.25	−0.21	-2.66	-0.64	-1.31	-4.12	-1.41	-1.82	-3.82
30	LAC	-2.35	−0.17	-3.68	-0.91	-0.59	-4.15	-1.46	-0.37	-5.30
31	HOU	-3.04	−0.01	-1.52	-3.91	-4.27	-3.49	-2.32	-2.64	-3.09
32	LV	-3.62	−1.08	-0.48	-2.89	-0.51	-3.30	-5.40	-5.70	-7.07

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	-1.32	1.79	0.77	2.01	2.83	2.43	4.11
KC	-0.06	1.14	0.90	-1.07	0.15	0.50	3.16
IND	-1.15	2.31	-3.89	-2.42	-1.25	2.00	2.67
BAL	4.31	0.62	1.92	0.40	2.96	2.48	1.82
ATL	-2.63	-3.82	0.63	-3.78	0.01	-1.13	1.48
TB	-1.42	-0.14	-5.01	-4.53	1.22	0.05	0.98
PIT	-3.75	-1.19	0.33	-2.17	-2.84	0.21	0.47
JAX	-0.76	-1.39	-1.45	-3.83	-0.80	-0.49	0.29
MIA	-2.12	-3.42	-0.91	-0.70	-4.90	-0.73	0.14
SF	-1.81	-0.11	-1.27	1.12	-0.07	-1.09	-0.11
DAL	-1.19	-1.31	-0.71	-0.32	-3.04	-0.55	-0.28
DET	-2.43	-2.24	-2.16	-1.24	0.56	-1.45	-0.45
NE	1.80	0.40	-1.62	-2.21	-1.85	-0.85	-0.46
CHI	-0.81	-1.18	2.96	1.20	-1.61	1.94	-0.62
WAS	-0.17	-0.87	-1.71	-0.51	3.98	0.28	-0.73
ARI	1.81	-0.53	-0.61	1.10	1.28	-1.27	-1.38
TEN	3.00	0.05	-2.26	-1.58	-2.96	-1.48	-1.44
LAR	-2.32	-2.11	-0.99	0.20	-1.72	-0.24	-1.50
NO	1.20	-3.05	-3.06	-3.07	0.07	-2.95	-1.90
CIN	-2.92	-2.12	-1.28	-1.45	-0.56	0.41	-1.95
CAR	-0.51	-1.09	0.46	-1.96	0.22	-1.14	-2.66
DEN	-2.35	-2.02	-2.19	-2.05	-0.84	-0.55	-2.70
HOU	-1.52	-3.91	-4.27	-3.49	-2.32	-2.64	-3.09
PHI	-0.62	2.53	3.08	0.61	3.29	-0.63	-3.52
NYJ	-2.66	-0.64	-1.31	-4.12	-1.41	-1.82	-3.82
NYG	-1.27	-2.06	1.79	-3.89	-1.70	0.86	-4.28
CLE	-0.43	1.57	1.44	-2.82	-1.52	-1.30	-4.52
MIN	0.56	-2.43	-2.59	-1.68	-2.05	-0.76	-4.84
LAC	-3.68	-0.91	-0.59	-4.15	-1.46	-0.37	-5.30
GB	1.45	0.86	0.30	-1.82	0.23	-0.90	-6.06
SEA	0.53	0.96	-0.75	-1.26	-1.21	-2.17	-6.68
LV	-0.48	-2.89	-0.51	-3.30	-5.40	-5.70	-7.07

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

Related stats

About this stat

Stat ID: off_rushing_rush_epa
Side: offensive
Family: Rushing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.