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2026 — Week 5

This week's games, the Vegas line, and what the house algorithm makes it.

The house algorithm, on the record

House Algorithm is the site's own recipe — the same builder members use. Every pick below was made by it.

  • 58.6%2023–2026Replayed against each full season467-330-19 against the spread
  • 54.0%2023–2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then463-395-22 against the spread
  • 62.3%2026Picking week to week, knowing only what was known then38-23-3 against the spread

The two numbers cover the same games. The higher one replays the algorithm against each season in full; the lower one is it picking week to week with only what was known at the time — that is what you would have made, and it runs 4.6 points behind. Break-even against the spread is 52.4% after the standard vig.

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The record, drawn

Record by season

The seasons this algorithm has actually been live for. The upper line is it replayed against each season in full; the lower is it picking week to week with only what was known at the time — that one is what you would have made. The flat line is break-even after vig (52.4%). 2026 is still in progress and is not shown here — a season only appears once it is complete. The week-by-week chart beside this one carries it.

The record as it was earned

Against the spread, week by week, picking with only what was known at the time — the running record, not each week in isolation. The flat line is break-even after vig (52.4%).

What you can do here

Build an algorithmChoose the stats and the weight given to each — it creates team power ratings.
See how it would have doneEvery game we hold, replayed against the closing line.
Pick against the spreadUse your ratings to pick the upcoming games.
Get gradedYour record against the spread, shown on the leaderboard.
Download other picksTake the picks from other algorithms and see their team power ratings.
Play TeamballThe fantasy football game.
Team statsIn-depth pages for all 32 teams.
Matchups and predictionsEvery game, called by the house algorithm.
Recaps and summariesWhat happened, once the games are done.

Where to start

PicksWeek 5, 2026 — this week and the archiveResultsWhat was graded, and how it didLeaderboards10 algorithms on the board, with their recordsRatingsAll 32 teams — SF leads on 108.7StatsThe catalogue behind all of itTeamsEvery team, season by seasonTeamballThe fantasy football gameBuild your ownChoose the stats, set the weights, see the record

Recent writing

Weekly picks, results and the rankings work behind the ratings.

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Pick your stats, set the weights, and find out what it would have done — all the way back to 2018.

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