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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

166.97

Def EXP

15.23

Net EXP

182.20

Record

11-6

Pythag 12.0 (-1.0)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+6.94

SoS Rank

#27

pts: −1.3 (#29)

#27

Pts / Game

26.5

Home 28.4 · Road 24.4

Net Pts / G

+8.2

Pts Allowed / G

18.3

Home 15.9 · Road 21.0

Yds / Play

5.70

Yds/Play Allowed

5.10

#11

3rd Down %

49.8%

3rd Down % Allowed

38.6%

#19

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	451	370.06	+80.94	#6
Total Yards	6366	5,636.94	+729.06	#4
Yds / Play	5.70	5.25	+0.45	#5
1st Downs	381	327.44	+53.56	#3
Turnovers	28	22.94	+5.06	#25
Fumbles Lost	10	9.50	+0.50	#19
EXP Pts	166.97	27.68	+139.29	#3

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	311	370.06	-59.06	#4
Total Yards	5222	5,636.94	-414.94	#9
Yds / Play	5.10	5.24	-0.14	#11
1st Downs	313	327.44	-14.44	#11
Turnovers	30	22.94	+7.06	#3
Fumbles Lost	12	9.50	+2.50	#5
EXP Pts	15.23	-27.68	+42.91	#9

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 451 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	579	572.34	+6.66	#16
Pass Cmp	385	369	+16	#11
Cmp %	66.50	64.46	+2.04	#8
Pass Yds	4154	3,721.72	+432.28	#8
Yds / Att	7.20	6.52	+0.68	#5
Yds / Cmp	10.80	10.08	+0.72	#7
Adj Y/A	6.80	6.29	+0.51	#10
Adj NY/A	6.50	5.84	+0.66	#8
Pass TD	29	23.56	+5.44	#7
TD %	5	4.12	+0.88	#7
Pass Int	18	13.44	+4.56	#28
Int %	3.10	2.35	+0.75	#27
Sack %	4	7.17	-3.17	#1
Pass Rating	91.10	86.88	+4.22	#11
EXP Pts Pass	119.09	41.96	+77.13	#6

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	552	572.34	-20.34	#25
Pass Cmp	363	369	-6	#11
Cmp %	65.80	64.44	+1.36	#20
Pass Yds	3342	3,721.72	-379.72	#7
Yds / Att	6.70	7.03	-0.33	#8
Yds / Cmp	10.10	10.89	-0.79	#6
Adj Y/A	5.80	6.79	-0.99	#5
Adj NY/A	4.80	5.82	-1.02	#5
Pass TD	18	23.56	-5.56	#2
TD %	3.30	4.12	-0.82	#5
Pass Int	18	13.44	+4.56	#4
Int %	3.30	2.35	+0.95	#4
Sack %	8.90	7.14	+1.76	#3
Pass Rating	81.90	88.94	-7.04	#7
EXP Pts Pass	-0.32	-41.96	+41.64	#7

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2023. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

83.0%

#21 of 32

PAT%

98.0%

#9 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

1 / 1

#8 of 32

Return Yards

709

#18 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

54 yd

FG %

83.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	4	0	100.0%
30-39	12	0	100.0%
40-49	4	2	66.7%
50-59	4	2	66.7%
60+	0	0	—

Made FG distances

20–2923242929(4)

30–39303132333334343536363739(12)

40–4940404848(4)

50–5950505354(4)

Missed FG distances

40–494248(2)

50–595253(2)

Blocked FG distances

30–3934(1)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

98.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

GWFG distances

20–2929(1)

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

360

Punt avg

11.6

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

349

Kickoff avg

20.5

Total return yds

709

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2334

Gross avg

45.8

Net yards

2030

Net avg

39.8

Long

70 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

47.1%

Touchbacks

TB %

5.9%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

237

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2023.

QB Hits

117

#4 of 32

Pass Def.

#12 of 32

TFL

#4 of 32

Forced Fum.

#15 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2023. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+91.7

#4 of 32

Rush EPA

+34.2

#1 of 32

Recv EPA

+138.1

#7 of 32

CPOE

+5.02

#1 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2023 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

5,022

#3 of 32

Pass YAC

1,973

#13 of 32

Recv Air Yds

5,022

#3 of 32

Recv YAC

1,973

#13 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2023. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

106

#26 of 32

Penalty Yds

883

#25 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#25 of 32

Yds / Game

51.9

#25 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2023 vs 2022.


Punt Yds	2146	2334	188
Punt Net Yds	1895	2030	135
Kickoff Yds	5822	5952	130

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2019 through 2023. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 18, 2023

W at MIA · 21–14

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2023.

Cmp %

66.5%

Pass Yds/G

244.4

Pass Rating

91.1

#11

Pass TD

Pass Int

#28

Sack Rate

4.0%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 17 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	17	11-6	7-10	41.2%	6-11	35.3%	+8.2	+2.4	34	+28.5
Home	9	7-2	4-5	44.4%	3-6	33.3%	+12.6	+4.4	28	+25.5
Away	8	4-4	3-5	37.5%	3-5	37.5%	+3.4	+0.2	34	+28.5
As favorite	14	10-4	6-8	42.9%	5-9	35.7%	+10.4	+3.0	34	+28.5
As underdog	3	1-2	1-2	—	1-2	—	-2.0	+0.0	3	+5.0
Division games	6	4-2	3-3	50.0%	3-3	50.0%	+9.5	+3.2	28	+25.5
Non-division	11	7-4	4-7	36.4%	3-8	27.3%	+7.5	+2.0	34	+28.5
Pick-em (≤3)	7	4-3	4-3	57.1%	2-5	28.6%	+6.3	+5.8	28	+25.5
Small favorite (3-7)	2	1-1	1-1	—	0-2	—	+14.5	+9.0	34	+28.5
Large favorite (7+)	8	6-2	2-6	25.0%	4-4	50.0%	+8.4	-2.1	28	+20.5

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2023. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


NYJ	New York Jets	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	+10.0	+4.8
MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	+17.5	+15.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	1-1	0-2	2-0	+1.0	-10.2
LV	Las Vegas Raiders	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+28.0	+20.5
WAS	Washington Commanders	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+34.0	+28.5
JAX	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-5.0	-10.5
NYG	New York Giants	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+5.0	-10.5
TB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+6.0	-4.0
CIN	Cincinnati Bengals	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-6.0	-4.5
DEN	Denver Broncos	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-2.0	-9.5
PHI	Philadelphia Eagles	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-3.0	-0.5
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+3.0	+5.0
DAL	Dallas Cowboys	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+21.0	+19.0
LAC	Los Angeles Chargers	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	+2.0	-11.0

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	3	2-1	2-1	1-2	67%
Oct	5	3-2	1-4	2-3	20%
Nov	4	1-3	1-3	1-3	25%
Dec	4	4-0	2-2	2-2	50%
Jan	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	0%
Sat	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	0%
Sun	13	9-4	7-6	5-8	54%
Mon	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	9	5-4	3-6	3-6	33%
Second half (W10+)	8	6-2	4-4	3-5	50%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	4	3-1	3-1	1-3	75%
Turf	10	7-3	3-7	4-6	30%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	4-2	3-3	3-3	50%
Same conference	6	3-3	2-4	2-4	33%
Inter-conference	5	4-1	2-3	1-4	40%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	0%
Cool (40-59°F)	8	4-4	3-5	2-6	38%
Mild (60-74°F)	4	4-0	3-1	1-3	75%
Indoor	4	2-2	1-3	2-2	25%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	3	3-0	2-1	2-1	67%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	10	6-4	4-6	2-8	40%
Indoor	4	2-2	1-3	2-2	25%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	5
ATS	W	1
O/U	U	1

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	5
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	3
Longest ATS no-cover	6
Longest O streak	2
Longest U streak	4

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	10	6-4	4-6	5-5	40%
After a loss	6	5-1	3-3	1-5	50%
On 2+ winning streak	5	4-1	2-3	3-2	40%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
vs winning opp.	8	6-2	6-2	3-5	75%
vs losing opp.	6	4-2	1-5	3-3	17%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	15	10-5	7-8	5-10	47%
Dome	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	0%
Retractable (closed)	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	7-1	4-4	3-5	50%
Domestic road	8	4-4	3-5	3-5	38%
International	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	7-1	4-4	3-5	50%
Short (<500)	5	1-4	1-4	2-3	20%
Medium (500-1500)	2	2-0	2-0	0-2	100%
Long (1500+)	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	0%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	0%
Standard (5-7d)	11	8-3	6-5	5-6	55%
Long week (8-10d)	3	1-2	0-3	1-2	0%
Bye+ (11+d)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-13 G

OctATS 1-45 G

NovATS 1-34 G

DecATS 2-24 G

JanATS 1-01 G

By day of week

ThuATS 0-11 G

SatATS 0-11 G

SunATS 7-613 G

MonATS 0-22 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 3-69 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 4-48 G

By surface

GrassATS 3-14 G

TurfATS 3-710 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-36 G

Same conferenceATS 2-46 G

Inter-conferenceATS 2-35 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 7-815 G

DomeATS 0-11 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 0-11 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 4-48 G

Domestic roadATS 3-58 G

InternationalATS 0-11 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 4-48 G

Short (<500)ATS 1-45 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 2-02 G

Long (1500+)ATS 0-22 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 0-11 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 6-511 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 0-33 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 1-01 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 4-04 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 0-33 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 1-34 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 2-46 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 11.8 ptsBias +2.4 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	11-6	0.471 #27	26.5	18.3	166.97	15.23
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	11-6	0.450 #29	29.2	23.0	139.45	-1.01
New England Patriots (NE)	4-13	0.522 #10	13.9	21.5	-157.57	25.44
New York Jets (NYJ)	7-10	0.502 #17	15.8	20.9	-199.77	75.84

Insights

A look at how the 2023 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: offensive epa per rush (1st of 32), offensive epa per rush (1st of 32), and offensive rush success rate (1st of 32). Weaknesses: defensive avg wr separation allowed (29th of 32), defensive ryoe per attempt allowed (29th of 32), and defensive epa per rush allowed (28th of 32). Notably, offensive rush success rate (1st) yet defensive epa per rush allowed (28th).


Drives	181	188.09	-7.09	#21
Plays / Drive	6.30	5.90	+0.40	#3
Yds / Drive	35.10	30.04	+5.06	#5
Points / Drive	2.37	1.89	+0.48	#6
Score %	41.40	35.66	+5.74	#6
Turnover %	14.90	11.54	+3.36	#28


Rush Att	512	456.44	+55.56	#5
Rush Yds	2212	1,915.22	+296.78	#7
Rush Y/A	4.30	4.18	+0.13	#8
Rush TD	22	14.69	+7.31	#5
EXP Pts Rush	52.27	-5.27	+57.54	#1


3rd Down Att	219	224.81	-5.81	#24
3rd Down Made	109	87.13	+21.88	#2
4th Down Att	16	24.97	-8.97	#29
4th Down Made	9	12.88	-3.88	#23
Red Zone Att	65	52.94	+12.06	#4
Red Zone Scores	41	29.09	+11.91	#3


Drives	181	188.09	-7.09	#8
Plays / Drive	5.80	5.90	-0.10	#15
Yds / Drive	28.80	30.03	-1.22	#10
Points / Drive	1.67	1.88	-0.21	#7
Score %	32	35.59	-3.59	#8
Turnover %	16	11.57	+4.43	#1


Rush Att	409	456.44	-47.44	#4
Rush Yds	1880	1,915.22	-35.22	#15
Rush Y/A	4.60	4.20	+0.40	#28
Rush TD	14	14.69	-0.69	#16
EXP Pts Rush	-2.60	5.27	-7.87	#18


2019	7.7	51.5	+59.2
2020	213.3	-88.7	+124.7
2021	151.1	78.3	+229.4
2022	156.4	10.9	+167.3
2023	167.0	15.2	+182.2

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East