Offensive: Rushing · Rush EPA
What Rush EPA is
Rushing EPA: expected points added on running plays — each run valued by how much it changed the chance of scoring, given down, distance and field position. It is usually smaller than passing EPA and often negative league-wide, because the average run loses expected points; a positive number is a genuinely good running game.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2023 the Bills led at 2.01; the league average was -1.65.
League snapshot — 2023
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2.01 | 17 |
| 2 | CHI | 1.20 | 17 |
| 3 | SF | 1.12 | 17 |
| 4 | ARI | 1.10 | 17 |
| 5 | PHI | 0.61 | 17 |
| 6 | BAL | 0.40 | 17 |
| 7 | LAR | 0.20 | 17 |
| 8 | DAL | -0.32 | 17 |
| 9 | WAS | -0.51 | 17 |
| 10 | MIA | -0.70 | 17 |
| 11 | KC | -1.07 | 17 |
| 12 | DET | -1.24 | 17 |
| 13 | SEA | -1.26 | 17 |
| 14 | CIN | -1.45 | 17 |
| 15 | TEN | -1.58 | 17 |
| 16 | MIN | -1.68 | 17 |
| 17 | GB | -1.82 | 17 |
| 18 | CAR | -1.96 | 17 |
| 19 | DEN | -2.05 | 17 |
| 20 | PIT | -2.17 | 17 |
| 21 | NE | -2.21 | 17 |
| 22 | IND | -2.42 | 17 |
| 23 | CLE | -2.82 | 17 |
| 24 | NO | -3.07 | 17 |
| 25 | LV | -3.30 | 17 |
| 26 | HOU | -3.49 | 17 |
| 27 | ATL | -3.78 | 17 |
| 28 | JAX | -3.83 | 17 |
| 29 | NYG | -3.89 | 17 |
| 30 | NYJ | -4.12 | 17 |
| 31 | LAC | -4.15 | 17 |
| 32 | TB | -4.53 | 17 |
At a glance — 2023
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2023
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 2.01 | 3.66 | 100% |
| 2 | CHI | 1.20 | 2.85 | 96.8% |
| 3 | SF | 1.12 | 2.77 | 93.5% |
| 4 | ARI | 1.10 | 2.75 | 90.3% |
| 5 | PHI | 0.61 | 2.26 | 87.1% |
| 6 | BAL | 0.40 | 2.05 | 83.9% |
| 7 | LAR | 0.20 | 1.85 | 80.6% |
| 8 | DAL | -0.32 | 1.33 | 77.4% |
| 9 | WAS | -0.51 | 1.14 | 74.2% |
| 10 | MIA | -0.70 | 0.95 | 71% |
| 11 | KC | -1.07 | 0.58 | 67.7% |
| 12 | DET | -1.24 | 0.41 | 64.5% |
| 13 | SEA | -1.26 | 0.39 | 61.3% |
| 14 | CIN | -1.45 | 0.20 | 58.1% |
| 15 | TEN | -1.58 | 0.07 | 54.8% |
| 16 | MIN | -1.68 | -0.03 | 51.6% |
| 17 | GB | -1.82 | -0.17 | 48.4% |
| 18 | CAR | -1.96 | -0.31 | 45.2% |
| 19 | DEN | -2.05 | -0.40 | 41.9% |
| 20 | PIT | -2.17 | -0.52 | 38.7% |
| 21 | NE | -2.21 | -0.56 | 35.5% |
| 22 | IND | -2.42 | -0.77 | 32.3% |
| 23 | CLE | -2.82 | -1.17 | 29% |
| 24 | NO | -3.07 | -1.42 | 25.8% |
| 25 | LV | -3.30 | -1.65 | 22.6% |
| 26 | HOU | -3.49 | -1.84 | 19.4% |
| 27 | ATL | -3.78 | -2.13 | 16.1% |
| 28 | JAX | -3.83 | -2.18 | 12.9% |
| 29 | NYG | -3.89 | -2.24 | 9.7% |
| 30 | NYJ | -4.12 | -2.47 | 6.5% |
| 31 | LAC | -4.15 | -2.50 | 3.2% |
| 32 | TB | -4.53 | -2.88 | 0% |
Does Rush EPA matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 812–766–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #207 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (138–116, 54.3%); its worst 2021 (128–142, 47.4%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 138–116–2 | 54.3% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 140–124–7 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 272 | 134–124–14 | 51.9% |
| 2024 | 272 | 141–122–9 | 53.6% |
| 2025 | 272 | 131–138–3 | 48.7% |
Rush EPA in 2023 vs 2022
Bills lead at 2.01 — they ranked #7 last year. Buccaneers are last at -4.53 — #32 last year.
The league average is -1.65, down 0.88 from -0.77 last year.
Biggest riser: 49ers, #19 → #3. Biggest faller: Giants, #4 → #29.
Spread between first and last: 6.55; 18 teams are within 1.77 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2023 vs 2022
| Rank | Team | 2023 | 2022 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 1.12 | -1.27 | +2.39 |
| 2 | ARI | 1.10 | -0.61 | +1.71 |
| 3 | IND | -2.42 | -3.89 | +1.48 |
| 4 | BUF | 2.01 | 0.77 | +1.24 |
| 5 | WAS | -0.51 | -1.71 | +1.20 |
| 6 | LAR | 0.20 | -0.99 | +1.18 |
| 7 | DET | -1.24 | -2.16 | +0.93 |
| 8 | MIN | -1.68 | -2.59 | +0.91 |
| 9 | HOU | -3.49 | -4.27 | +0.78 |
| 10 | TEN | -1.58 | -2.26 | +0.68 |
| 11 | TB | -4.53 | -5.01 | +0.48 |
| 12 | DAL | -0.32 | -0.71 | +0.39 |
| 13 | MIA | -0.70 | -0.91 | +0.22 |
| 14 | DEN | -2.05 | -2.19 | +0.14 |
| 15 | NO | -3.07 | -3.06 | −0.02 |
| 16 | CIN | -1.45 | -1.28 | −0.17 |
| 17 | SEA | -1.26 | -0.75 | −0.51 |
| 18 | NE | -2.21 | -1.62 | −0.59 |
| 19 | BAL | 0.40 | 1.92 | −1.52 |
| 20 | CHI | 1.20 | 2.96 | −1.76 |
| 21 | KC | -1.07 | 0.90 | −1.96 |
| 22 | GB | -1.82 | 0.30 | −2.12 |
| 23 | JAX | -3.83 | -1.45 | −2.38 |
| 24 | CAR | -1.96 | 0.46 | −2.42 |
| 25 | PHI | 0.61 | 3.08 | −2.48 |
| 26 | PIT | -2.17 | 0.33 | −2.50 |
| 27 | LV | -3.30 | -0.51 | −2.79 |
| 28 | NYJ | -4.12 | -1.31 | −2.81 |
| 29 | LAC | -4.15 | -0.59 | −3.56 |
| 30 | CLE | -2.82 | 1.44 | −4.26 |
| 31 | ATL | -3.78 | 0.63 | −4.41 |
| 32 | NYG | -3.89 | 1.79 | −5.68 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 2.07 | −0.10 | 4.31 | 0.62 | 1.92 | 0.40 | 2.96 | 2.48 | 1.82 |
| 2 | BUF | 1.80 | +0.70 | -1.32 | 1.79 | 0.77 | 2.01 | 2.83 | 2.43 | 4.11 |
| 3 | PHI | 0.68 | −0.53 | -0.62 | 2.53 | 3.08 | 0.61 | 3.29 | -0.63 | -3.52 |
| 4 | KC | 0.68 | +0.27 | -0.06 | 1.14 | 0.90 | -1.07 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 3.16 |
| 5 | CHI | 0.27 | +0.08 | -0.81 | -1.18 | 2.96 | 1.20 | -1.61 | 1.94 | -0.62 |
| 6 | ARI | 0.06 | −0.33 | 1.81 | -0.53 | -0.61 | 1.10 | 1.28 | -1.27 | -1.38 |
| 7 | WAS | 0.04 | +0.22 | -0.17 | -0.87 | -1.71 | -0.51 | 3.98 | 0.28 | -0.73 |
| 8 | IND | -0.25 | +0.48 | -1.15 | 2.31 | -3.89 | -2.42 | -1.25 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| 9 | SF | -0.48 | +0.16 | -1.81 | -0.11 | -1.27 | 1.12 | -0.07 | -1.09 | -0.11 |
| 10 | NE | -0.69 | −0.34 | 1.80 | 0.40 | -1.62 | -2.21 | -1.85 | -0.85 | -0.46 |
| 11 | GB | -0.85 | −0.93 | 1.45 | 0.86 | 0.30 | -1.82 | 0.23 | -0.90 | -6.06 |
| 12 | TEN | -0.95 | −0.61 | 3.00 | 0.05 | -2.26 | -1.58 | -2.96 | -1.48 | -1.44 |
| 13 | CAR | -0.95 | −0.24 | -0.51 | -1.09 | 0.46 | -1.96 | 0.22 | -1.14 | -2.66 |
| 14 | DAL | -1.06 | +0.07 | -1.19 | -1.31 | -0.71 | -0.32 | -3.04 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| 15 | CLE | -1.08 | −0.75 | -0.43 | 1.57 | 1.44 | -2.82 | -1.52 | -1.30 | -4.52 |
| 16 | JAX | -1.21 | +0.20 | -0.76 | -1.39 | -1.45 | -3.83 | -0.80 | -0.49 | 0.29 |
| 17 | LAR | -1.24 | +0.20 | -2.32 | -2.11 | -0.99 | 0.20 | -1.72 | -0.24 | -1.50 |
| 18 | TB | -1.27 | +0.49 | -1.42 | -0.14 | -5.01 | -4.53 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 0.98 |
| 19 | PIT | -1.28 | +0.44 | -3.75 | -1.19 | 0.33 | -2.17 | -2.84 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| 20 | ATL | -1.32 | +0.61 | -2.63 | -3.82 | 0.63 | -3.78 | 0.01 | -1.13 | 1.48 |
| 21 | DET | -1.34 | +0.37 | -2.43 | -2.24 | -2.16 | -1.24 | 0.56 | -1.45 | -0.45 |
| 22 | CIN | -1.41 | +0.31 | -2.92 | -2.12 | -1.28 | -1.45 | -0.56 | 0.41 | -1.95 |
| 23 | NYG | -1.51 | −0.24 | -1.27 | -2.06 | 1.79 | -3.89 | -1.70 | 0.86 | -4.28 |
| 24 | SEA | -1.51 | −1.01 | 0.53 | 0.96 | -0.75 | -1.26 | -1.21 | -2.17 | -6.68 |
| 25 | MIA | -1.81 | +0.29 | -2.12 | -3.42 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -4.90 | -0.73 | 0.14 |
| 26 | DEN | -1.82 | +0.12 | -2.35 | -2.02 | -2.19 | -2.05 | -0.84 | -0.55 | -2.70 |
| 27 | NO | -1.82 | −0.21 | 1.20 | -3.05 | -3.06 | -3.07 | 0.07 | -2.95 | -1.90 |
| 28 | MIN | -1.97 | −0.44 | 0.56 | -2.43 | -2.59 | -1.68 | -2.05 | -0.76 | -4.84 |
| 29 | NYJ | -2.25 | −0.21 | -2.66 | -0.64 | -1.31 | -4.12 | -1.41 | -1.82 | -3.82 |
| 30 | LAC | -2.35 | −0.17 | -3.68 | -0.91 | -0.59 | -4.15 | -1.46 | -0.37 | -5.30 |
| 31 | HOU | -3.04 | −0.01 | -1.52 | -3.91 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -2.32 | -2.64 | -3.09 |
| 32 | LV | -3.62 | −1.08 | -0.48 | -2.89 | -0.51 | -3.30 | -5.40 | -5.70 | -7.07 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | -1.32 | 1.79 | 0.77 | 2.01 | 2.83 | 2.43 | 4.11 |
| CHI | -0.81 | -1.18 | 2.96 | 1.20 | -1.61 | 1.94 | -0.62 |
| SF | -1.81 | -0.11 | -1.27 | 1.12 | -0.07 | -1.09 | -0.11 |
| ARI | 1.81 | -0.53 | -0.61 | 1.10 | 1.28 | -1.27 | -1.38 |
| PHI | -0.62 | 2.53 | 3.08 | 0.61 | 3.29 | -0.63 | -3.52 |
| BAL | 4.31 | 0.62 | 1.92 | 0.40 | 2.96 | 2.48 | 1.82 |
| LAR | -2.32 | -2.11 | -0.99 | 0.20 | -1.72 | -0.24 | -1.50 |
| DAL | -1.19 | -1.31 | -0.71 | -0.32 | -3.04 | -0.55 | -0.28 |
| WAS | -0.17 | -0.87 | -1.71 | -0.51 | 3.98 | 0.28 | -0.73 |
| MIA | -2.12 | -3.42 | -0.91 | -0.70 | -4.90 | -0.73 | 0.14 |
| KC | -0.06 | 1.14 | 0.90 | -1.07 | 0.15 | 0.50 | 3.16 |
| DET | -2.43 | -2.24 | -2.16 | -1.24 | 0.56 | -1.45 | -0.45 |
| SEA | 0.53 | 0.96 | -0.75 | -1.26 | -1.21 | -2.17 | -6.68 |
| CIN | -2.92 | -2.12 | -1.28 | -1.45 | -0.56 | 0.41 | -1.95 |
| TEN | 3.00 | 0.05 | -2.26 | -1.58 | -2.96 | -1.48 | -1.44 |
| MIN | 0.56 | -2.43 | -2.59 | -1.68 | -2.05 | -0.76 | -4.84 |
| GB | 1.45 | 0.86 | 0.30 | -1.82 | 0.23 | -0.90 | -6.06 |
| CAR | -0.51 | -1.09 | 0.46 | -1.96 | 0.22 | -1.14 | -2.66 |
| DEN | -2.35 | -2.02 | -2.19 | -2.05 | -0.84 | -0.55 | -2.70 |
| PIT | -3.75 | -1.19 | 0.33 | -2.17 | -2.84 | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| NE | 1.80 | 0.40 | -1.62 | -2.21 | -1.85 | -0.85 | -0.46 |
| IND | -1.15 | 2.31 | -3.89 | -2.42 | -1.25 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| CLE | -0.43 | 1.57 | 1.44 | -2.82 | -1.52 | -1.30 | -4.52 |
| NO | 1.20 | -3.05 | -3.06 | -3.07 | 0.07 | -2.95 | -1.90 |
| LV | -0.48 | -2.89 | -0.51 | -3.30 | -5.40 | -5.70 | -7.07 |
| HOU | -1.52 | -3.91 | -4.27 | -3.49 | -2.32 | -2.64 | -3.09 |
| ATL | -2.63 | -3.82 | 0.63 | -3.78 | 0.01 | -1.13 | 1.48 |
| JAX | -0.76 | -1.39 | -1.45 | -3.83 | -0.80 | -0.49 | 0.29 |
| NYG | -1.27 | -2.06 | 1.79 | -3.89 | -1.70 | 0.86 | -4.28 |
| NYJ | -2.66 | -0.64 | -1.31 | -4.12 | -1.41 | -1.82 | -3.82 |
| LAC | -3.68 | -0.91 | -0.59 | -4.15 | -1.46 | -0.37 | -5.30 |
| TB | -1.42 | -0.14 | -5.01 | -4.53 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 0.98 |
Rush EPA since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Rams (1.80), 2019 Ravens (4.09), 2020 Ravens (4.31), 2021 Eagles (2.53), 2022 Eagles (3.08), 2023 Bills (2.01).
Ravens have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2020 at 4.31; the worst Steelers 2019 at -6.22.
The league average has fallen from -1.19 in 2018 to -1.65 in 2023.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- off_rushing_rush_epa
- Side
- offensive
- Family
- Rushing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.