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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

221.37

Def EXP

-51.35

#12

Net EXP

170.02

Record

13-4

Pythag 11.9 (+1.1)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+8.06

SoS Rank

#28

pts: −1.2 (#29)

#28

Pts / Game

30.9

Home 34.3 · Road 27.9

Net Pts / G

+9.2

Pts Allowed / G

21.6

Home 17.6 · Road 25.2

#12

Yds / Play

6.00

Yds/Play Allowed

5.50

#21

3rd Down %

44.1%

3rd Down % Allowed

43.8%

#28

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	525	389.50	+135.50	#2
Total Yards	6105	5,736.19	+368.81	#10
Yds / Play	6	5.42	+0.58	#6
1st Downs	360	335.31	+24.69	#6
Turnovers	8	20.56	-12.56	#1
Fumbles Lost	2	8.47	-6.47	#1
EXP Pts	221.37	62.00	+159.37	#3

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	368	389.50	-21.50	#12
Total Yards	5806	5,736.19	+69.81	#17
Yds / Play	5.50	5.43	+0.07	#21
1st Downs	356	335.31	+20.69	#29
Turnovers	32	20.56	+11.44	#3
Fumbles Lost	16	8.47	+7.53	#1
EXP Pts	-51.35	-62.00	+10.65	#12

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 525 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	520	556.59	-36.59	#26
Pass Cmp	329	363.41	-34.41	#27
Cmp %	63.30	65.29	-1.99	#23
Pass Yds	3875	3,699.50	+175.50	#9
Yds / Att	7.50	6.69	+0.81	#5
Yds / Cmp	11.80	10.23	+1.58	#4
Adj Y/A	8.10	6.63	+1.47	#3
Adj NY/A	7.90	6.17	+1.73	#3
Pass TD	30	25.28	+4.72	#7
TD %	5.80	4.58	+1.22	#6
Pass Int	6	12.09	-6.09	#5
Int %	1.20	2.15	-0.95	#5
Sack %	2.60	6.82	-4.22	#1
Pass Rating	100.30	90.63	+9.67	#7
EXP Pts Pass	175.67	68.74	+106.93	#3

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	578	556.59	+21.41	#10
Pass Cmp	396	363.41	+32.59	#28
Cmp %	68.50	65.30	+3.20	#28
Pass Yds	3843	3,699.50	+143.50	#24
Yds / Att	7.10	7.13	-0.03	#20
Yds / Cmp	10.40	10.94	-0.54	#7
Adj Y/A	6.80	7.09	-0.29	#14
Adj NY/A	6	6.14	-0.14	#15
Pass TD	28	25.28	+2.72	#25
TD %	4.80	4.57	+0.23	#19
Pass Int	16	12.09	+3.91	#5
Int %	2.80	2.15	+0.65	#6
Sack %	6.30	6.86	-0.56	#21
Pass Rating	93.30	92.48	+0.82	#18
EXP Pts Pass	-95.20	-68.74	-26.46	#25

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2024. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

83.0%

#21 of 32

PAT%

92.0%

#27 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

1 / 1

#5 of 32

Return Yards

934

#25 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

61 yd

FG %

83.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	6	1	85.7%
30-39	7	0	100.0%
40-49	7	4	63.6%
50-59	3	0	100.0%
60+	1	0	100.0%

Made FG distances

20–29222727282829(6)

30–3930333337383939(7)

40–4940414343474949(7)

50–59505050(3)

60+61(1)

Missed FG distances

20–2924(1)

40–4945474849(4)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

92.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

GWFG distances

60+61(1)

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

313

Punt avg

11.6

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

621

Kickoff avg

25.9

Total return yds

934

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2523

Gross avg

45.9

Net yards

2189

Net avg

39.1

Long

65 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

45.5%

Touchbacks

TB %

9.1%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

213

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2024.

#15 of 32

#25 of 32

#7 of 32

#3 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2024. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+132.7

#3 of 32

Rush EPA

+48.1

#4 of 32

Recv EPA

+172.6

#5 of 32

CPOE

+0.25

#18 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2024 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

4,262

#16 of 32

Pass YAC

2,186

#8 of 32

Recv Air Yds

4,262

#16 of 32

Recv YAC

2,186

#8 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2024. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

112

#21 of 32

Penalty Yds

833

#12 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#19 of 32

Yds / Game

49.0

#12 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2024 vs 2023.


Kickoff Yds	5952	6514	562
Kick Ret Yds	349	621	272
Punt Yds	2334	2523	189

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2020 through 2024. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 18, 2024

L at NE · 16–23

BUF failed to cover.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2024.

Cmp %

63.3%

#23

Pass Yds/G

227.9

Pass Rating

100.3

Pass TD

Pass Int

Sack Rate

2.6%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 17 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	17	13-4	10-7	58.8%	11-5-1	68.8%	+9.2	+5.4	37	+33.0
Home	8	8-0	5-3	62.5%	6-1-1	85.7%	+16.6	+9.2	37	+33.0
Away	9	5-4	5-4	55.6%	5-4	55.6%	+2.7	+1.9	21	+23.5
As favorite	13	11-2	8-5	61.5%	10-2-1	83.3%	+12.2	+6.4	37	+33.0
As underdog	4	2-2	2-2	—	1-3	—	-0.2	+1.9	21	+23.5
Division games	6	5-1	3-3	50.0%	4-2	66.7%	+8.2	+2.8	26	+23.5
Non-division	11	8-3	7-4	63.6%	7-3-1	70.0%	+9.8	+6.7	37	+33.0
Pick-em (≤3)	8	5-3	5-3	62.5%	4-4	50.0%	+3.1	+3.0	21	+23.5
Small favorite (3-7)	6	5-1	3-3	50.0%	5-0-1	100.0%	+13.2	+7.9	37	+33.0
Large favorite (7+)	3	3-0	2-1	—	2-1	—	+17.7	+6.5	26	+16.0

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2024. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	2-0	1-1	1-1	+12.0	+10.0
NYJ	New York Jets	2	2-0	2-0	2-0	+14.5	+9.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	-2.0	-10.5
ARI	Arizona Cardinals	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	+6.0	-0.5
JAX	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+37.0	+33.0
BAL	Baltimore Ravens	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-25.0	-22.5
HOU	Houston Texans	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-3.0	-2.0
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+24.0	+14.5
SEA	Seattle Seahawks	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+21.0	+18.0
IND	Indianapolis Colts	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+10.0	+5.5
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+9.0	+6.5
SF	San Francisco 49ers	1	1-0	1-0	0-0-1	+25.0	+18.5
LAR	Los Angeles Rams	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-2.0	-5.5
DET	Detroit Lions	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+6.0	+8.5

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	4	3-1	2-2	2-2	50%
Oct	4	3-1	3-1	2-2	75%
Nov	3	3-0	2-1	3-0	67%
Dec	5	4-1	3-2	3-1-1	60%
Jan	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	0%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Sun	14	10-4	7-7	9-4-1	50%
Mon	2	2-0	2-0	2-0	100%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	9	7-2	5-4	5-4	56%
Second half (W10+)	8	6-2	5-3	6-1-1	62%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	50%
Turf	15	12-3	9-6	11-3-1	60%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	5-1	3-3	4-2	50%
Same conference	6	4-2	4-2	4-2	67%
Inter-conference	5	4-1	3-2	3-1-1	60%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	3	2-1	1-2	1-1-1	33%
Cool (40-59°F)	5	5-0	4-1	4-1	80%
Mild (60-74°F)	4	3-1	2-2	3-1	50%
Warm (75°F+)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Indoor	4	2-2	2-2	3-1	50%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	3	3-0	2-1	1-2	67%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	8	6-2	5-3	5-2-1	62%
Windy (≥15 mph)	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	50%
Indoor	4	2-2	2-2	3-1	50%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	L	1
ATS	L	1
O/U	O	2

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	7
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	3
Longest ATS no-cover	2
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	2

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	13	10-3	8-5	8-4-1	62%
After a loss	3	2-1	2-1	2-1	67%
On 2+ winning streak	10	7-3	6-4	7-2-1	60%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
vs winning opp.	5	4-1	4-1	2-3	80%
vs losing opp.	10	8-2	6-4	7-2-1	60%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	13	11-2	8-5	8-4-1	62%
Dome	2	1-1	1-1	2-0	50%
Retractable (closed)	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	50%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	8-0	5-3	6-1-1	62%
Domestic road	9	5-4	5-4	5-4	56%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	8-0	5-3	6-1-1	62%
Short (<500)	5	3-2	3-2	4-1	60%
Medium (500-1500)	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	50%
Long (1500+)	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	50%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Standard (5-7d)	12	8-4	6-6	8-4	50%
Long week (8-10d)	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
Bye+ (11+d)	2	2-0	2-0	1-0-1	100%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-24 G

OctATS 3-14 G

NovATS 2-13 G

DecATS 3-25 G

JanATS 0-11 G

By day of week

ThuATS 1-01 G

SunATS 7-714 G

MonATS 2-02 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 5-49 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 5-38 G

By surface

GrassATS 1-12 G

TurfATS 9-615 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-36 G

Same conferenceATS 4-26 G

Inter-conferenceATS 3-25 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 8-513 G

DomeATS 1-12 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 1-12 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 5-38 G

Domestic roadATS 5-49 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 5-38 G

Short (<500)ATS 3-25 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 1-12 G

Long (1500+)ATS 1-12 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 1-01 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 6-612 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 1-01 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 2-02 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 1-12 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 2-24 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 5-27 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 2-24 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 11.8 ptsBias +5.4 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	13-4	0.467 #28	30.9	21.6	221.37	-51.35
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	8-9	0.419 #32	20.3	21.4	0.06	-5.70
New England Patriots (NE)	4-13	0.471 #26	17.0	24.5	-38.96	-133.48
New York Jets (NYJ)	5-12	0.495 #20	19.9	23.8	28.95	-93.24

Insights

A look at how the 2024 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: offensive sack rate allowed (1st of 32), offensive epa per rush (2nd of 32), and offensive epa per rush (2nd of 32). Weaknesses: defensive avg wr separation allowed (30th of 32), defensive stuffed rate forced (29th of 32), and defensive avg yac allowed (26th of 32).


Drives	173	181.84	-8.84	#27
Plays / Drive	6.10	6.01	+0.09	#10
Yds / Drive	35.40	31.52	+3.88	#8
Points / Drive	2.92	2.08	+0.84	#2
Score %	49.70	38.90	+10.80	#3
Turnover %	4.60	10.64	-6.04	#2


Rush Att	491	458.97	+32.03	#9
Rush Yds	2230	2,036.69	+193.31	#9
Rush Y/A	4.50	4.41	+0.09	#12
Rush TD	32	15.97	+16.03	#1
EXP Pts Rush	63.83	8.62	+55.21	#4


3rd Down Att	202	214.81	-12.81	#26
3rd Down Made	89	85.25	+3.75	#10
4th Down Att	22	23.94	-1.94	#19
4th Down Made	16	13.59	+2.41	#9
Red Zone Att	67	55.44	+11.56	#6
Red Zone Scores	48	31.94	+16.06	#3


Drives	171	181.84	-10.84	#5
Plays / Drive	6.30	6.01	+0.29	#26
Yds / Drive	33.60	31.48	+2.13	#26
Points / Drive	2.07	2.07	0.00	#18
Score %	36.30	38.85	-2.55	#11
Turnover %	17.50	10.70	+6.80	#1


Rush Att	435	458.97	-23.97	#12
Rush Yds	1963	2,036.69	-73.69	#12
Rush Y/A	4.50	4.42	+0.08	#21
Rush TD	13	15.97	-2.97	#14
EXP Pts Rush	26.72	-8.62	+35.34	#4


2020	213.3	-88.7	+124.7
2021	151.1	78.3	+229.4
2022	156.4	10.9	+167.3
2023	167.0	15.2	+182.2
2024	221.4	-51.4	+170.0

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East