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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

151.07

Def EXP

78.28

Net EXP

229.35

Record

11-6

Pythag 13.1 (-2.1)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+9.83

SoS Rank

#28

pts: −1.6 (#31)

#28

Pts / Game

28.4

Home 26.3 · Road 30.8

Net Pts / G

+11.4

Pts Allowed / G

17.0

Home 16.6 · Road 17.5

Yds / Play

5.70

#10

Yds/Play Allowed

4.60

3rd Down %

46.4%

3rd Down % Allowed

30.8%

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	483	390.69	+92.31	#3
Total Yards	6493	5,840.53	+652.47	#5
Yds / Play	5.70	5.42	+0.28	#10
1st Downs	398	345.50	+52.50	#4
Turnovers	22	22.06	-0.06	#16
Fumbles Lost	6	8.31	-2.31	#8
EXP Pts	151.07	64.59	+86.48	#6

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	289	390.69	-101.69	#1
Total Yards	4637	5,840.53	-1,203.53	#1
Yds / Play	4.60	5.42	-0.82	#1
1st Downs	285	345.50	-60.50	#1
Turnovers	30	22.06	+7.94	#3
Fumbles Lost	11	8.31	+2.69	#6
EXP Pts	78.28	-64.59	+142.87	#1

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 483 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	655	584.75	+70.25	#5
Pass Cmp	415	378.78	+36.22	#8
Cmp %	63.40	64.70	-1.30	#23
Pass Yds	4284	3,881.34	+402.66	#9
Yds / Att	6.50	6.64	-0.14	#18
Yds / Cmp	10.30	10.23	+0.07	#18
Adj Y/A	6.50	6.46	+0.04	#17
Adj NY/A	6.30	6.08	+0.23	#16
Pass TD	36	26.25	+9.75	#7
TD %	5.50	4.48	+1.02	#10
Pass Int	16	13.75	+2.25	#25
Int %	2.40	2.36	+0.04	#17
Sack %	4	6.31	-2.31	#3
Pass Rating	90.30	88.73	+1.57	#15
EXP Pts Pass	123.52	71.31	+52.21	#11

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	530	584.75	-54.75	#30
Pass Cmp	297	378.78	-81.78	#1
Cmp %	56	64.75	-8.75	#1
Pass Yds	2771	3,881.34	-1,110.34	#1
Yds / Att	5.70	7.10	-1.40	#1
Yds / Cmp	10.30	10.98	-0.68	#6
Adj Y/A	4.60	6.94	-2.34	#1
Adj NY/A	3.80	6.08	-2.28	#1
Pass TD	12	26.25	-14.25	#1
TD %	2.30	4.51	-2.21	#1
Pass Int	19	13.75	+5.25	#3
Int %	3.60	2.35	+1.25	#3
Sack %	7.30	6.24	+1.06	#6
Pass Rating	65.30	90.88	-25.58	#1
EXP Pts Pass	55.95	-71.31	+127.26	#1

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2021. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

88.0%

#10 of 32

PAT%

100.0%

#1 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

0 / 0

#17 of 32

Return Yards

1,106

#9 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

57 yd

FG %

88.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	15	0	100.0%
30-39	7	1	87.5%
40-49	4	1	80.0%
50-59	2	2	50.0%
60+	0	0	—

Made FG distances

20–29212121212424252525262628282929(15)

30–3930333434353739(7)

40–4941414248(4)

50–595257(2)

Missed FG distances

30–3933(1)

40–4949(1)

50–595357(2)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

100.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

No game-winning field goal attempts this season.

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

316

Punt avg

8.5

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

790

Kickoff avg

23.9

Total return yds

1106

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2230

Gross avg

42.1

Net yards

1994

Net avg

36.9

Long

63 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

34.0%

Touchbacks

TB %

13.2%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2021.

#19 of 32

#8 of 32

#7 of 32

#22 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2021. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+78.1

#10 of 32

Rush EPA

+30.4

#3 of 32

Recv EPA

+130.6

#10 of 32

CPOE

+2.03

#11 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2021 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

5,355

#2 of 32

Pass YAC

1,751

#20 of 32

Recv Air Yds

5,355

#2 of 32

Recv YAC

1,752

#20 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2021. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

113

#27 of 32

Penalty Yds

980

#25 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#30 of 32

Yds / Game

57.6

#25 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2021 vs 2020.


Rush Yds	1723	2209	486
Rush Yds	1723	2209	486
Punt Net Yds	1804	1994	190

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2018 through 2021. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 18, 2021

W vs NYJ · 27–10

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2021.

Cmp %

63.4%

#23

Pass Yds/G

252.0

Pass Rating

90.3

#15

Pass TD

Pass Int

#25

Sack Rate

4.0%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 17 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	17	11-6	9-6-2	60.0%	8-9	47.1%	+11.4	+3.2	40	+31.5
Home	9	6-3	4-3-2	57.1%	3-6	33.3%	+9.8	-1.6	40	+21.0
Away	8	5-3	5-3	62.5%	5-3	62.5%	+13.2	+8.6	35	+31.5
As favorite	14	9-5	7-5-2	58.3%	5-9	35.7%	+12.1	+1.7	40	+31.5
As underdog	3	2-1	2-1	—	3-0	—	+8.0	+10.3	18	+20.5
Division games	6	5-1	4-1-1	80.0%	2-4	33.3%	+17.2	+8.9	35	+31.5
Non-division	11	6-5	5-5-1	50.0%	6-5	54.5%	+8.3	+0.1	40	+21.0
Pick-em (≤3)	3	2-1	2-1	—	2-1	—	+8.7	+8.8	18	+20.5
Small favorite (3-7)	3	1-2	1-2	—	1-2	—	+8.3	+3.0	35	+31.5
Large favorite (7+)	10	8-2	6-2-2	75.0%	4-6	40.0%	+14.9	+2.1	40	+21.0
Small underdog (3-7)	1	0-1	0-1	—	1-0	—	-6.0	-2.5	—	-2.5

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2021. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	2-0	1-0-1	0-2	+25.0	+15.8
NYJ	New York Jets	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	+22.5	+8.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	+4.0	+3.0
PIT	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-7.0	-13.5
WAS	Washington Commanders	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+22.0	+14.5
HOU	Houston Texans	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+40.0	+21.0
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+18.0	+20.5
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-3.0	-9.0
JAX	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-3.0	-17.5
IND	Indianapolis Colts	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-26.0	-33.5
NO	New Orleans Saints	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+25.0	+18.0
TB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-6.0	-2.5
CAR	Carolina Panthers	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+17.0	+3.0
ATL	Atlanta Falcons	1	1-0	0-0-1	0-1	+14.0	+0.0

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	3	2-1	2-1	1-2	67%
Oct	4	3-1	2-1-1	2-2	67%
Nov	4	2-2	2-2	2-2	50%
Dec	4	2-2	2-2	3-1	50%
Jan	2	2-0	1-0-1	0-2	100%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Sun	14	10-4	8-4-2	7-7	67%
Mon	2	0-2	0-2	1-1	0%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	8	5-3	4-3-1	3-5	57%
Second half (W10+)	9	6-3	5-3-1	5-4	62%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	5	2-3	2-3	3-2	40%
Turf	12	9-3	7-3-2	5-7	70%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	5-1	4-1-1	2-4	80%
Same conference	6	2-4	2-4	3-3	33%
Inter-conference	5	4-1	3-1-1	3-2	75%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	5	4-1	3-1-1	2-3	75%
Cool (40-59°F)	4	2-2	1-2-1	2-2	33%
Mild (60-74°F)	4	2-2	2-2	2-2	50%
Warm (75°F+)	3	2-1	2-1	2-1	67%
Indoor	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	3	2-1	2-1	3-0	67%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	8	6-2	4-2-2	4-4	67%
Windy (≥15 mph)	5	2-3	2-3	1-4	40%
Indoor	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	4
ATS	W	1
O/U	U	2

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	4
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	4
Longest ATS no-cover	2
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	2

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	10	6-4	5-4-1	5-5	56%
After a loss	6	5-1	4-1-1	3-3	80%
On 2+ winning streak	5	4-1	3-1-1	2-3	75%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
vs winning opp.	5	2-3	2-3	3-2	40%
vs losing opp.	7	6-1	4-1-2	2-5	80%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	16	10-6	8-6-2	8-8	57%
Dome	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	9	6-3	4-3-2	3-6	57%
Domestic road	8	5-3	5-3	5-3	62%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	9	6-3	4-3-2	3-6	57%
Short (<500)	2	2-0	2-0	2-0	100%
Medium (500-1500)	6	3-3	3-3	3-3	50%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Standard (5-7d)	12	9-3	8-3-1	7-5	73%
Long week (8-10d)	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	0%
Bye+ (11+d)	2	1-1	0-1-1	0-2	0%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-13 G

OctATS 2-1-14 G

NovATS 2-24 G

DecATS 2-24 G

JanATS 1-0-12 G

By day of week

ThuATS 1-01 G

SunATS 8-4-214 G

MonATS 0-22 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 4-3-18 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 5-3-19 G

By surface

GrassATS 2-35 G

TurfATS 7-3-212 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 4-1-16 G

Same conferenceATS 2-46 G

Inter-conferenceATS 3-1-15 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 8-6-216 G

DomeATS 1-01 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 4-3-29 G

Domestic roadATS 5-38 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 4-3-29 G

Short (<500)ATS 2-02 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 3-36 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 1-01 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 8-3-112 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 0-11 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 0-1-12 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 2-35 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 1-12 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 2-1-14 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 4-1-16 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 13.0 ptsBias +3.2 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	11-6	0.472 #28	28.4	17.0	151.07	78.28
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	9-8	0.464 #32	20.1	21.9	-11.96	-16.12
New England Patriots (NE)	10-7	0.481 #24	27.2	17.8	117.44	35.53
New York Jets (NYJ)	4-13	0.512 #12	18.2	29.6	-32.71	-193.85

Insights

A look at how the 2021 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: defensive epa per pass play allowed (1st of 32), defensive epa per pass play allowed (1st of 32), and defensive epa per play allowed (1st of 32). Weaknesses: defensive stuffed rate forced (31st of 32) and offensive yac over expected (29th of 32).


Drives	186	183.56	+2.44	#14
Plays / Drive	6.30	6.04	+0.26	#8
Yds / Drive	34.80	31.81	+2.99	#9
Points / Drive	2.56	2.06	+0.50	#4
Score %	45.20	37.91	+7.29	#5
Turnover %	11.30	11.53	-0.22	#14


Rush Att	461	452.91	+8.09	#13
Rush Yds	2209	1,959.19	+249.81	#6
Rush Y/A	4.80	4.31	+0.49	#6
Rush TD	20	15.78	+4.22	#7
EXP Pts Rush	35.99	4.81	+31.18	#6


3rd Down Att	222	217.81	+4.19	#12
3rd Down Made	103	87.94	+15.06	#3
4th Down Att	22	24.78	-2.78	#18
4th Down Made	11	13.16	-2.16	#21
Red Zone Att	77	56.19	+20.81	#1
Red Zone Scores	48	32.84	+15.16	#1


Drives	186	183.56	+2.44	#20
Plays / Drive	5.60	6.06	-0.46	#3
Yds / Drive	24.70	31.78	-7.08	#1
Points / Drive	1.51	2.06	-0.55	#1
Score %	28	37.88	-9.88	#1
Turnover %	14.50	11.51	+2.99	#7


Rush Att	442	452.91	-10.91	#16
Rush Yds	1866	1,959.19	-93.19	#13
Rush Y/A	4.20	4.32	-0.12	#12
Rush TD	19	15.78	+3.22	#27
EXP Pts Rush	10.83	-4.81	+15.64	#8


2018	-96.9	17.0	-80.0
2019	7.7	51.5	+59.2
2020	213.3	-88.7	+124.7
2021	151.1	78.3	+229.4

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East