What Rec EPA is

Receiving EPA: expected points added on the team's receptions — each catch valued by how much it changed the chance of scoring, given the situation. The receivers' share of situation-aware passing production.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Chiefs led at 11.75; the league average was 5.84.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

KC · 11.75

League average

5.84

Best to worst

13.51

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	11.75	17
2	DAL	11.18	17
3	TB	10.96	17
4	GB	10.89	17
5	CIN	10.87	17
6	LAR	10.74	17
7	LAC	9.79	17
8	ARI	9.51	17
9	SF	9.11	17
10	BUF	7.68	17
11	MIN	7.66	17
12	NE	7.10	17
13	LV	6.86	17
14	DEN	6.72	17
15	TEN	6.53	17
16	PHI	6.09	17
17	IND	5.95	17
18	SEA	5.95	17
19	BAL	5.37	17
20	CLE	5.26	17
21	MIA	4.69	17
22	DET	3.93	17
23	NO	3.70	17
24	ATL	3.27	17
25	CHI	2.34	17
26	WAS	2.22	17
27	NYJ	1.77	17
28	HOU	0.96	17
29	PIT	0.70	17
30	JAX	0.67	17
31	NYG	-1.50	17
32	CAR	-1.76	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 11.75

League laggard

CAR · -1.76

League average

5.84

Spread (max − min)

13.51

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	11.75	5.91	100%
2	DAL	11.18	5.33	96.8%
3	TB	10.96	5.11	93.5%
4	GB	10.89	5.04	90.3%
5	CIN	10.87	5.03	87.1%
6	LAR	10.74	4.90	83.9%
7	LAC	9.79	3.94	80.6%
8	ARI	9.51	3.67	77.4%
9	SF	9.11	3.27	74.2%
10	BUF	7.68	1.84	71%
11	MIN	7.66	1.81	67.7%
12	NE	7.10	1.26	64.5%
13	LV	6.86	1.02	61.3%
14	DEN	6.72	0.88	58.1%
15	TEN	6.53	0.69	54.8%
16	PHI	6.09	0.24	51.6%
17	IND	5.95	0.11	48.4%
18	SEA	5.95	0.10	45.2%
19	BAL	5.37	-0.47	41.9%
20	CLE	5.26	-0.58	38.7%
21	MIA	4.69	-1.16	35.5%
22	DET	3.93	-1.91	32.3%
23	NO	3.70	-2.14	29%
24	ATL	3.27	-2.58	25.8%
25	CHI	2.34	-3.50	22.6%
26	WAS	2.22	-3.62	19.4%
27	NYJ	1.77	-4.07	16.1%
28	HOU	0.96	-4.89	12.9%
29	PIT	0.70	-5.15	9.7%
30	JAX	0.67	-5.17	6.5%
31	NYG	-1.50	-7.34	3.2%
32	CAR	-1.76	-7.60	0%

Does Rec EPA matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 876–702–37 ATS (55.5%) across 2020–2025, #58 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (158–105, 60.1%); its worst 2020 (135–119, 53.1%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	135–119–2	53.1%
2021	272	147–123–2	54.4%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	158–105–9	60.1%
2025	272	146–123–3	54.3%

Rec EPA in 2021 vs 2020

Chiefs lead at 11.75 — they ranked #1 last year. Panthers are last at -1.76 — #23 last year.

The league average is 5.84, down 1.43 from 7.27 last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #22 → #2. Biggest faller: Texans, #4 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 13.51; 19 teams are within 3.80 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +6.26

Biggest faller

HOU · −12.48

Most consistent

BAL · −0.40

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.43

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DEN	6.72	0.46	+6.26
2	DAL	11.18	5.33	+5.85
3	CIN	10.87	5.59	+5.28
4	LAR	10.74	5.54	+5.20
5	NE	7.10	2.37	+4.73
6	ARI	9.51	5.49	+4.03
7	PHI	6.09	2.48	+3.61
8	NYJ	1.77	0.73	+1.04
9	LAC	9.79	8.89	+0.90
10	SF	9.11	8.38	+0.73
11	TB	10.96	10.46	+0.49
12	BAL	5.37	5.76	−0.40
13	WAS	2.22	2.89	−0.67
14	MIA	4.69	5.68	−0.99
15	CHI	2.34	3.55	−1.20
16	LV	6.86	8.81	−1.95
17	IND	5.95	8.16	−2.21
18	DET	3.93	6.71	−2.78
19	JAX	0.67	3.84	−3.17
20	KC	11.75	14.99	−3.23
21	GB	10.89	14.15	−3.26
22	MIN	7.66	11.10	−3.44
23	PIT	0.70	4.91	−4.21
24	TEN	6.53	10.95	−4.42
25	CLE	5.26	9.90	−4.64
26	SEA	5.95	10.81	−4.87
27	NYG	-1.50	3.50	−5.00
28	NO	3.70	8.81	−5.11
29	ATL	3.27	9.59	−6.32
30	BUF	7.68	14.23	−6.55
31	CAR	-1.76	5.31	−7.07
32	HOU	0.96	13.43	−12.48

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 10.20

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 2.43

Biggest improver

DET · +1.71/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −1.90/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	10.20	+1.71	6.71	3.93	9.71	9.29	13.87	11.83	16.05
2	BUF	10.12	−0.12	14.23	7.68	9.51	8.12	10.15	9.51	11.64
3	KC	10.06	−1.10	14.99	11.75	13.94	5.04	8.02	6.43	10.23
4	SF	10.02	+0.57	8.38	9.11	8.98	12.40	8.04	9.48	13.76
5	GB	8.95	−0.60	14.15	10.89	3.80	8.44	7.01	10.85	7.52
6	CIN	8.60	−0.04	5.59	10.87	10.83	6.79	12.98	3.96	9.16
7	DAL	7.60	+0.38	5.33	11.18	4.29	10.98	0.80	9.48	11.14
8	LAR	7.43	+0.48	5.54	10.74	2.73	6.97	6.05	11.69	8.25
9	BAL	7.15	+0.87	5.76	5.37	2.08	8.56	12.91	4.47	10.91
10	TB	6.98	−1.34	10.46	10.96	5.28	6.79	10.61	3.73	1.03
11	SEA	6.93	−0.44	10.81	5.95	5.55	7.17	5.84	7.86	5.33
12	MIN	6.89	−1.18	11.10	7.66	8.33	6.18	9.71	1.55	3.68
13	LAC	6.14	−1.22	8.89	9.79	5.72	5.79	7.80	4.99	-0.03
14	HOU	6.03	+0.32	13.43	0.96	-1.88	7.80	5.21	5.87	10.82
15	PHI	5.82	−0.09	2.48	6.09	8.06	7.27	9.88	5.72	1.24
16	JAX	5.71	+1.13	3.84	0.67	8.49	4.50	4.02	6.49	11.96
17	MIA	5.71	−0.71	5.68	4.69	8.20	9.64	8.30	3.91	-0.47
18	LV	5.38	−0.45	8.81	6.86	5.02	2.98	4.24	1.10	8.68
19	NE	5.23	+1.26	2.37	7.10	3.38	-3.69	3.86	14.51	9.08
20	NO	4.98	−0.43	8.81	3.70	5.00	6.23	1.70	3.25	6.20
21	ARI	4.92	+0.02	5.49	9.51	0.70	-0.57	6.45	8.06	4.77
22	ATL	4.35	−0.66	9.59	3.27	3.50	2.00	6.13	3.84	2.15
23	IND	4.18	−0.64	8.16	5.95	0.19	5.35	2.05	6.22	1.37
24	DEN	4.11	+0.27	0.46	6.72	2.79	5.30	4.48	6.56	2.48
25	WAS	4.09	+0.56	2.89	2.22	3.48	1.46	9.25	5.01	4.34
26	CAR	3.90	+1.51	5.31	-1.76	1.69	0.69	1.68	4.27	15.40
27	PIT	3.81	+0.28	4.91	0.70	3.96	1.83	6.31	5.38	3.62
28	TEN	3.77	−1.90	10.95	6.53	4.13	4.31	1.84	0.72	-2.12
29	CHI	3.70	+0.65	3.55	2.34	0.31	2.77	4.78	7.31	4.82
30	NYG	3.20	+0.69	3.50	-1.50	5.01	1.95	1.71	4.85	6.85
31	CLE	2.65	−1.27	9.90	5.26	4.20	-1.32	-2.21	-3.06	5.77
32	NYJ	2.43	+0.88	0.73	1.77	2.13	-2.16	5.37	0.41	8.77

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	14.99	11.75	13.94	5.04	8.02	6.43	10.23
DAL	5.33	11.18	4.29	10.98	0.80	9.48	11.14
TB	10.46	10.96	5.28	6.79	10.61	3.73	1.03
GB	14.15	10.89	3.80	8.44	7.01	10.85	7.52
CIN	5.59	10.87	10.83	6.79	12.98	3.96	9.16
LAR	5.54	10.74	2.73	6.97	6.05	11.69	8.25
LAC	8.89	9.79	5.72	5.79	7.80	4.99	-0.03
ARI	5.49	9.51	0.70	-0.57	6.45	8.06	4.77
SF	8.38	9.11	8.98	12.40	8.04	9.48	13.76
BUF	14.23	7.68	9.51	8.12	10.15	9.51	11.64
MIN	11.10	7.66	8.33	6.18	9.71	1.55	3.68
NE	2.37	7.10	3.38	-3.69	3.86	14.51	9.08
LV	8.81	6.86	5.02	2.98	4.24	1.10	8.68
DEN	0.46	6.72	2.79	5.30	4.48	6.56	2.48
TEN	10.95	6.53	4.13	4.31	1.84	0.72	-2.12
PHI	2.48	6.09	8.06	7.27	9.88	5.72	1.24
IND	8.16	5.95	0.19	5.35	2.05	6.22	1.37
SEA	10.81	5.95	5.55	7.17	5.84	7.86	5.33
BAL	5.76	5.37	2.08	8.56	12.91	4.47	10.91
CLE	9.90	5.26	4.20	-1.32	-2.21	-3.06	5.77
MIA	5.68	4.69	8.20	9.64	8.30	3.91	-0.47
DET	6.71	3.93	9.71	9.29	13.87	11.83	16.05
NO	8.81	3.70	5.00	6.23	1.70	3.25	6.20
ATL	9.59	3.27	3.50	2.00	6.13	3.84	2.15
CHI	3.55	2.34	0.31	2.77	4.78	7.31	4.82
WAS	2.89	2.22	3.48	1.46	9.25	5.01	4.34
NYJ	0.73	1.77	2.13	-2.16	5.37	0.41	8.77
HOU	13.43	0.96	-1.88	7.80	5.21	5.87	10.82
PIT	4.91	0.70	3.96	1.83	6.31	5.38	3.62
JAX	3.84	0.67	8.49	4.50	4.02	6.49	11.96
NYG	3.50	-1.50	5.01	1.95	1.71	4.85	6.85
CAR	5.31	-1.76	1.69	0.69	1.68	4.27	15.40

Rec EPA since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (16.98), 2019 Chiefs (11.72), 2020 Chiefs (14.99), 2021 Chiefs (11.75).

Chiefs have led this stat 4 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 16.98; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -3.63.

The league average has fallen from 6.57 in 2018 to 5.84 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

Related stats

About this stat

Stat ID: off_receiving_rec_epa
Side: offensive
Family: Receiving
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.