What CPOE is

Completion percentage over expected: the share of passes a team completed, minus the share it was expected to complete given how hard each throw was (distance, pressure, coverage). Zero means the quarterback hit exactly the throws an average passer would; a positive number means he completed passes that usually fall incomplete. It strips out the easy-checkdown offense that inflates plain completion percentage.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Packers led at 5.08; the league average was 0.18.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

GB · 5.08

League average

0.18

Best to worst

12.83

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	GB	5.08	17
2	CIN	5.05	17
3	ARI	4.60	17
4	SEA	4.24	17
5	KC	3.54	17
6	NE	2.97	17
7	LV	2.60	17
8	DAL	2.56	17
9	TEN	2.42	17
10	DEN	2.34	17
11	SF	2.34	17
12	BUF	1.94	17
13	TB	1.59	17
14	PHI	0.91	17
15	ATL	0.59	17
16	MIA	0.47	17
17	WAS	0.39	17
18	BAL	0.39	17
19	MIN	0.36	17
20	DET	0.22	17
21	LAR	0.00	17
22	LAC	-0.13	17
23	CLE	-0.73	17
24	HOU	-1.68	17
25	PIT	-2.44	17
26	CHI	-2.96	17
27	IND	-2.97	17
28	NO	-4.05	17
29	JAX	-4.08	17
30	NYG	-5.10	17
31	CAR	-7.01	17
32	NYJ	-7.75	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

GB · 5.08

League laggard

NYJ · -7.75

League average

0.18

Spread (max − min)

12.83

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	GB	5.08	4.90	100%
2	CIN	5.05	4.87	96.8%
3	ARI	4.60	4.42	93.5%
4	SEA	4.24	4.06	90.3%
5	KC	3.54	3.36	87.1%
6	NE	2.97	2.80	83.9%
7	LV	2.60	2.42	80.6%
8	DAL	2.56	2.38	77.4%
9	TEN	2.42	2.25	74.2%
10	DEN	2.34	2.16	71%
11	SF	2.34	2.16	67.7%
12	BUF	1.94	1.76	64.5%
13	TB	1.59	1.41	61.3%
14	PHI	0.91	0.73	58.1%
15	ATL	0.59	0.41	54.8%
16	MIA	0.47	0.29	51.6%
17	WAS	0.39	0.21	48.4%
18	BAL	0.39	0.21	45.2%
19	MIN	0.36	0.18	41.9%
20	DET	0.22	0.04	38.7%
21	LAR	0.00	-0.18	35.5%
22	LAC	-0.13	-0.31	32.3%
23	CLE	-0.73	-0.91	29%
24	HOU	-1.68	-1.85	25.8%
25	PIT	-2.44	-2.62	22.6%
26	CHI	-2.96	-3.14	19.4%
27	IND	-2.97	-3.15	16.1%
28	NO	-4.05	-4.22	12.9%
29	JAX	-4.08	-4.26	9.7%
30	NYG	-5.10	-5.28	6.5%
31	CAR	-7.01	-7.18	3.2%
32	NYJ	-7.75	-7.93	0%

Does CPOE matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #90 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (151–112, 57.4%); its worst 2023 (130–128, 50.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	135–119–2	53.1%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	145–119–7	54.9%
2023	272	130–128–14	50.4%
2024	272	151–112–9	57.4%
2025	272	154–115–3	57.2%

CPOE in 2021 vs 2020

Packers lead at 5.08 — they ranked #1 last year. Jets are last at -7.75 — #28 last year.

The league average is 0.18, down 0.91 from 1.08 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #30 → #6. Biggest faller: Panthers, #9 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 12.83; 22 teams are within 3.28 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +8.42

Biggest faller

CAR · −9.56

Most consistent

BAL · +0.23

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.91

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DEN	2.34	-6.08	+8.42
2	CIN	5.05	-1.24	+6.29
3	PHI	0.91	-4.93	+5.84
4	NE	2.97	-2.19	+5.16
5	DAL	2.56	-1.22	+3.78
6	SF	2.34	-1.26	+3.60
7	ARI	4.60	1.71	+2.89
8	WAS	0.39	-1.38	+1.77
9	DET	0.22	-0.92	+1.14
10	TEN	2.42	1.66	+0.77
11	KC	3.54	3.16	+0.38
12	LV	2.60	2.35	+0.25
13	BAL	0.39	0.15	+0.23
14	ATL	0.59	1.16	−0.57
15	LAR	0.00	0.66	−0.67
16	LAC	-0.13	0.75	−0.88
17	PIT	-2.44	-0.91	−1.54
18	TB	1.59	3.15	−1.56
19	MIA	0.47	2.36	−1.89
20	GB	5.08	7.35	−2.27
21	SEA	4.24	7.22	−2.98
22	IND	-2.97	0.19	−3.16
23	NYG	-5.10	-1.90	−3.19
24	JAX	-4.08	-0.18	−3.90
25	MIN	0.36	4.27	−3.91
26	BUF	1.94	5.98	−4.04
27	CHI	-2.96	1.14	−4.10
28	CLE	-0.73	3.75	−4.48
29	NYJ	-7.75	-1.45	−6.30
30	NO	-4.05	2.36	−6.41
31	HOU	-1.68	6.42	−8.09
32	CAR	-7.01	2.56	−9.56

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

SEA · 4.66

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -3.34

Biggest improver

NE · +1.58/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −1.09/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	SEA	4.66	−0.30	7.22	4.24	5.64	0.97	5.28	5.74	3.52
2	CIN	3.15	+0.58	-1.24	5.05	2.76	2.13	6.85	1.18	5.35
3	BUF	3.01	−0.04	5.98	1.94	0.06	4.39	0.97	3.36	4.38
4	GB	2.87	−0.97	7.35	5.08	1.12	1.25	2.31	5.04	-2.05
5	BAL	2.86	+1.33	0.15	0.39	-1.69	3.56	6.08	3.80	7.73
6	NE	2.60	+1.58	-2.19	2.97	1.06	-3.45	1.63	11.57	6.61
7	SF	2.58	+1.14	-1.26	2.34	-1.64	5.42	1.33	5.93	5.98
8	KC	1.86	−0.64	3.16	3.54	3.17	1.45	2.23	-1.35	0.80
9	MIN	1.68	−0.58	4.27	0.36	2.29	2.91	4.70	-3.20	0.44
10	DET	1.53	+0.76	-0.92	0.22	-1.46	1.45	7.13	2.59	1.71
11	PHI	1.39	+0.60	-4.93	0.91	1.91	4.26	6.49	4.07	-3.01
12	TB	1.08	−0.39	3.15	1.59	0.42	0.08	3.63	-2.36	1.07
13	ARI	1.01	−0.18	1.71	4.60	-1.33	-2.55	2.45	0.99	1.21
14	JAX	0.75	+0.98	-0.18	-4.08	1.38	2.16	-0.53	-1.13	7.65
15	MIA	0.68	−0.89	2.36	0.47	-0.04	5.09	3.12	1.49	-7.72
16	DAL	0.61	+0.29	-1.22	2.56	-1.08	3.47	-4.38	1.85	3.04
17	NO	0.54	+0.25	2.36	-4.05	1.23	2.93	-2.67	2.19	1.81
18	WAS	0.47	+0.45	-1.38	0.39	-1.64	-0.54	5.21	1.26	-0.02
19	TEN	0.38	−0.37	1.66	2.42	-1.02	1.44	0.08	-4.16	2.26
20	PIT	-0.02	+0.11	-0.91	-2.44	1.36	0.31	3.68	0.51	-2.64
21	LV	-0.15	−0.22	2.35	2.60	-2.18	-3.93	-1.37	-0.79	2.28
22	HOU	-0.15	−0.18	6.42	-1.68	-4.33	-1.38	-2.76	-1.33	4.00
23	LAC	-0.20	−0.53	0.75	-0.13	1.76	-1.89	2.25	0.79	-4.96
24	CAR	-0.48	+1.11	2.56	-7.01	-4.73	-1.48	0.01	1.74	5.52
25	DEN	-0.53	+0.19	-6.08	2.34	-0.62	3.52	0.77	-1.24	-2.39
26	LAR	-0.60	+0.15	0.66	0.00	-2.73	-3.17	-0.98	1.72	0.29
27	CHI	-0.83	+0.37	1.14	-2.96	-4.18	0.14	-0.08	-3.29	3.41
28	NYG	-1.31	+0.11	-1.90	-5.10	2.30	-0.21	-0.41	-1.36	-2.51
29	ATL	-1.34	−0.88	1.16	0.59	-0.44	-2.88	0.12	-3.06	-4.85
30	CLE	-1.76	−1.09	3.75	-0.73	1.24	-5.58	-3.90	-5.51	-1.57
31	IND	-2.20	−0.17	0.19	-2.97	-1.65	-3.28	-6.00	0.58	-2.28
32	NYJ	-3.34	+0.73	-1.45	-7.75	-4.73	-5.32	-1.54	-5.18	2.62

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
GB	7.35	5.08	1.12	1.25	2.31	5.04	-2.05
CIN	-1.24	5.05	2.76	2.13	6.85	1.18	5.35
ARI	1.71	4.60	-1.33	-2.55	2.45	0.99	1.21
SEA	7.22	4.24	5.64	0.97	5.28	5.74	3.52
KC	3.16	3.54	3.17	1.45	2.23	-1.35	0.80
NE	-2.19	2.97	1.06	-3.45	1.63	11.57	6.61
LV	2.35	2.60	-2.18	-3.93	-1.37	-0.79	2.28
DAL	-1.22	2.56	-1.08	3.47	-4.38	1.85	3.04
TEN	1.66	2.42	-1.02	1.44	0.08	-4.16	2.26
DEN	-6.08	2.34	-0.62	3.52	0.77	-1.24	-2.39
SF	-1.26	2.34	-1.64	5.42	1.33	5.93	5.98
BUF	5.98	1.94	0.06	4.39	0.97	3.36	4.38
TB	3.15	1.59	0.42	0.08	3.63	-2.36	1.07
PHI	-4.93	0.91	1.91	4.26	6.49	4.07	-3.01
ATL	1.16	0.59	-0.44	-2.88	0.12	-3.06	-4.85
MIA	2.36	0.47	-0.04	5.09	3.12	1.49	-7.72
WAS	-1.38	0.39	-1.64	-0.54	5.21	1.26	-0.02
BAL	0.15	0.39	-1.69	3.56	6.08	3.80	7.73
MIN	4.27	0.36	2.29	2.91	4.70	-3.20	0.44
DET	-0.92	0.22	-1.46	1.45	7.13	2.59	1.71
LAR	0.66	0.00	-2.73	-3.17	-0.98	1.72	0.29
LAC	0.75	-0.13	1.76	-1.89	2.25	0.79	-4.96
CLE	3.75	-0.73	1.24	-5.58	-3.90	-5.51	-1.57
HOU	6.42	-1.68	-4.33	-1.38	-2.76	-1.33	4.00
PIT	-0.91	-2.44	1.36	0.31	3.68	0.51	-2.64
CHI	1.14	-2.96	-4.18	0.14	-0.08	-3.29	3.41
IND	0.19	-2.97	-1.65	-3.28	-6.00	0.58	-2.28
NO	2.36	-4.05	1.23	2.93	-2.67	2.19	1.81
JAX	-0.18	-4.08	1.38	2.16	-0.53	-1.13	7.65
NYG	-1.90	-5.10	2.30	-0.21	-0.41	-1.36	-2.51
CAR	2.56	-7.01	-4.73	-1.48	0.01	1.74	5.52
NYJ	-1.45	-7.75	-4.73	-5.32	-1.54	-5.18	2.62

CPOE since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Seahawks (7.68), 2019 Seahawks (7.54), 2020 Packers (7.35), 2021 Packers (5.08).

Seahawks have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Seahawks 2018 at 7.68; the worst Jets 2021 at -7.75.

The league average has fallen from 0.61 in 2018 to 0.18 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

Related stats

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_pass_cpoe
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.