What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Rams led at 78.95; the league average was 50.66.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

LAR · 78.95

League average

50.66

Best to worst

53.95

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAR	78.95	17
2	KC	75.00	17
3	PIT	73.33	17
4	PHI	68.75	17
5	CAR	57.14	17
6	SEA	57.14	17
7	CLE	54.76	17
8	LV	54.17	17
9	MIA	54.17	17
10	DET	54.05	17
11	BUF	53.85	16
12	LAC	53.57	17
13	TB	53.57	17
14	TEN	52.94	17
15	DAL	52.63	17
16	JAX	51.85	17
17	ATL	50.00	17
18	DEN	50.00	17
19	HOU	50.00	17
20	WAS	48.00	17
21	NYG	47.62	17
22	MIN	47.37	17
23	IND	46.15	17
24	ARI	43.90	17
25	SF	41.18	17
26	BAL	40.00	17
27	NYJ	39.29	17
28	GB	38.71	17
29	NE	38.46	17
30	NO	36.36	17
31	CHI	33.33	17
32	CIN	25.00	16

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAR · 78.95

League laggard

CIN · 25.00

League average

50.66

Spread (max − min)

53.95

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAR	78.95	28.28	100%
2	KC	75.00	24.34	96.8%
3	PIT	73.33	22.67	93.5%
4	PHI	68.75	18.09	90.3%
5	CAR	57.14	6.48	87.1%
6	SEA	57.14	6.48	83.9%
7	CLE	54.76	4.10	80.6%
8	LV	54.17	3.50	77.4%
9	MIA	54.17	3.50	74.2%
10	DET	54.05	3.39	71%
11	BUF	53.85	3.18	67.7%
12	LAC	53.57	2.91	64.5%
13	TB	53.57	2.91	61.3%
14	TEN	52.94	2.28	58.1%
15	DAL	52.63	1.97	54.8%
16	JAX	51.85	1.19	51.6%
17	ATL	50.00	-0.66	48.4%
18	DEN	50.00	-0.66	45.2%
19	HOU	50.00	-0.66	41.9%
20	WAS	48.00	-2.66	38.7%
21	NYG	47.62	-3.05	35.5%
22	MIN	47.37	-3.30	32.3%
23	IND	46.15	-4.51	29%
24	ARI	43.90	-6.76	25.8%
25	SF	41.18	-9.49	22.6%
26	BAL	40.00	-10.66	19.4%
27	NYJ	39.29	-11.38	16.1%
28	GB	38.71	-11.95	12.9%
29	NE	38.46	-12.20	9.7%
30	NO	36.36	-14.30	6.5%
31	CHI	33.33	-17.33	3.2%
32	CIN	25.00	-25.66	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2022 vs 2021

Rams lead at 78.95 — they ranked #17 last year. Bengals are last at 25.00 — #4 last year.

The league average is 50.66, down 3.04 from 53.70 last year.

Biggest riser: Panthers, #31 → #5. Biggest faller: Patriots, #1 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 53.95; 23 teams are within 11.58 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LAR · +26.32

Biggest faller

CIN · −40.00

Most consistent

NYG · +0.95

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -3.04

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	LAR	78.95	52.63	+26.32
2	PIT	73.33	47.62	+25.71
3	PHI	68.75	44.00	+24.75
4	SEA	57.14	36.36	+20.78
5	CAR	57.14	41.18	+15.97
6	CLE	54.76	41.38	+13.38
7	KC	75.00	66.67	+8.33
8	ATL	50.00	41.67	+8.33
9	HOU	50.00	42.86	+7.14
10	BUF	53.85	50.00	+3.85
11	DET	54.05	51.22	+2.83
12	NYG	47.62	46.67	+0.95
13	WAS	48.00	50.00	−2.00
14	TB	53.57	56.25	−2.68
15	MIA	54.17	59.09	−4.92
16	DAL	52.63	58.33	−5.70
17	JAX	51.85	58.06	−6.21
18	DEN	50.00	57.14	−7.14
19	MIN	47.37	54.55	−7.18
20	CHI	33.33	41.67	−8.33
21	SF	41.18	50.00	−8.82
22	NYJ	39.29	48.28	−8.99
23	LV	54.17	63.16	−8.99
24	TEN	52.94	62.50	−9.56
25	LAC	53.57	64.71	−11.13
26	ARI	43.90	58.62	−14.72
27	IND	46.15	62.07	−15.92
28	NO	36.36	52.38	−16.02
29	GB	38.71	59.09	−20.38
30	BAL	40.00	66.67	−26.67
31	NE	38.46	68.75	−30.29
32	CIN	25.00	65.00	−40.00

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00), 2021 Patriots (68.75), 2022 Rams (78.95).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

The league average has fallen from 57.10 in 2018 to 50.66 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.