What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Eagles led at 73.08; the league average was 52.29.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

PHI · 73.08

League average

52.29

Best to worst

37.08

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	PHI	73.08	17
2	TB	66.67	17
3	DEN	65.00	17
4	LAR	61.90	17
5	BAL	61.54	17
6	LV	60.87	17
7	MIN	60.71	17
8	DAL	59.09	17
9	NYJ	58.62	17
10	BUF	56.25	17
11	CLE	56.25	17
12	WAS	55.17	17
13	TEN	55.00	17
14	SF	53.85	17
15	KC	52.63	17
16	DET	52.50	17
17	CHI	50.00	17
18	GB	50.00	17
19	IND	50.00	17
20	NYG	48.65	17
21	CAR	47.92	17
22	CIN	47.37	17
23	NO	47.37	17
24	PIT	47.37	17
25	LAC	46.88	17
26	MIA	45.83	17
27	JAX	44.83	17
28	ARI	44.12	17
29	ATL	42.11	17
30	HOU	38.10	17
31	SEA	37.50	17
32	NE	36.00	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

PHI · 73.08

League laggard

NE · 36.00

League average

52.29

Spread (max − min)

37.08

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	PHI	73.08	20.79	100%
2	TB	66.67	14.38	96.8%
3	DEN	65.00	12.71	93.5%
4	LAR	61.90	9.62	90.3%
5	BAL	61.54	9.25	87.1%
6	LV	60.87	8.58	83.9%
7	MIN	60.71	8.43	80.6%
8	DAL	59.09	6.80	77.4%
9	NYJ	58.62	6.33	74.2%
10	BUF	56.25	3.96	71%
11	CLE	56.25	3.96	67.7%
12	WAS	55.17	2.89	64.5%
13	TEN	55.00	2.71	61.3%
14	SF	53.85	1.56	58.1%
15	KC	52.63	0.35	54.8%
16	DET	52.50	0.21	51.6%
17	CHI	50.00	-2.29	48.4%
18	GB	50.00	-2.29	45.2%
19	IND	50.00	-2.29	41.9%
20	NYG	48.65	-3.64	38.7%
21	CAR	47.92	-4.37	35.5%
22	CIN	47.37	-4.92	32.3%
23	NO	47.37	-4.92	29%
24	PIT	47.37	-4.92	25.8%
25	LAC	46.88	-5.41	22.6%
26	MIA	45.83	-6.45	19.4%
27	JAX	44.83	-7.46	16.1%
28	ARI	44.12	-8.17	12.9%
29	ATL	42.11	-10.18	9.7%
30	HOU	38.10	-14.19	6.5%
31	SEA	37.50	-14.79	3.2%
32	NE	36.00	-16.29	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2023 vs 2022

Eagles lead at 73.08 — they ranked #4 last year. Patriots are last at 36.00 — #29 last year.

The league average is 52.29, up 1.62 from 50.66 last year.

Biggest riser: Ravens, #26 → #5. Biggest faller: Seahawks, #6 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 37.08; 23 teams are within 8.59 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CIN · +22.37

Biggest faller

PIT · −25.96

Most consistent

ARI · +0.22

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 1.62

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	CIN	47.37	25.00	+22.37
2	BAL	61.54	40.00	+21.54
3	NYJ	58.62	39.29	+19.33
4	CHI	50.00	33.33	+16.67
5	DEN	65.00	50.00	+15.00
6	MIN	60.71	47.37	+13.35
7	TB	66.67	53.57	+13.10
8	SF	53.85	41.18	+12.67
9	GB	50.00	38.71	+11.29
10	NO	47.37	36.36	+11.00
11	WAS	55.17	48.00	+7.17
12	LV	60.87	54.17	+6.70
13	DAL	59.09	52.63	+6.46
14	PHI	73.08	68.75	+4.33
15	IND	50.00	46.15	+3.85
16	BUF	56.25	53.85	+2.40
17	TEN	55.00	52.94	+2.06
18	CLE	56.25	54.76	+1.49
19	NYG	48.65	47.62	+1.03
20	ARI	44.12	43.90	+0.22
21	DET	52.50	54.05	−1.55
22	NE	36.00	38.46	−2.46
23	LAC	46.88	53.57	−6.70
24	JAX	44.83	51.85	−7.02
25	ATL	42.11	50.00	−7.89
26	MIA	45.83	54.17	−8.33
27	CAR	47.92	57.14	−9.23
28	HOU	38.10	50.00	−11.90
29	LAR	61.90	78.95	−17.04
30	SEA	37.50	57.14	−19.64
31	KC	52.63	75.00	−22.37
32	PIT	47.37	73.33	−25.96

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00), 2021 Patriots (68.75), 2022 Rams (78.95), 2023 Eagles (73.08).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

The league average has fallen from 57.10 in 2018 to 52.29 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.