What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Chiefs led at 75.00; the league average was 55.91.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

KC · 75.00

League average

55.91

Best to worst

34.38

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	75.00	17
2	NE	72.00	17
3	CIN	70.00	17
4	CAR	69.23	17
5	IND	66.67	17
6	LAR	66.67	17
7	DAL	64.71	17
8	MIN	62.50	17
9	WAS	61.54	17
10	BAL	60.00	17
11	LAC	60.00	17
12	BUF	59.38	17
13	SF	59.09	17
14	JAX	58.62	17
15	SEA	58.33	17
16	DET	58.06	17
17	HOU	57.89	17
18	GB	56.00	17
19	PHI	55.00	17
20	PIT	52.17	17
21	CHI	51.72	17
22	ATL	50.00	17
23	DEN	50.00	17
24	MIA	47.83	17
25	NYG	46.15	17
26	TEN	45.71	17
27	TB	44.83	17
28	NYJ	43.90	17
29	ARI	42.86	17
30	CLE	41.38	17
31	NO	41.18	17
32	LV	40.63	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 75.00

League laggard

LV · 40.63

League average

55.91

Spread (max − min)

34.38

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	75.00	19.09	100%
2	NE	72.00	16.09	96.8%
3	CIN	70.00	14.09	93.5%
4	CAR	69.23	13.32	90.3%
5	IND	66.67	10.76	87.1%
6	LAR	66.67	10.76	83.9%
7	DAL	64.71	8.80	80.6%
8	MIN	62.50	6.59	77.4%
9	WAS	61.54	5.63	74.2%
10	BAL	60.00	4.09	71%
11	LAC	60.00	4.09	67.7%
12	BUF	59.38	3.47	64.5%
13	SF	59.09	3.18	61.3%
14	JAX	58.62	2.71	58.1%
15	SEA	58.33	2.43	54.8%
16	DET	58.06	2.16	51.6%
17	HOU	57.89	1.99	48.4%
18	GB	56.00	0.09	45.2%
19	PHI	55.00	-0.91	41.9%
20	PIT	52.17	-3.73	38.7%
21	CHI	51.72	-4.18	35.5%
22	ATL	50.00	-5.91	32.3%
23	DEN	50.00	-5.91	29%
24	MIA	47.83	-8.08	25.8%
25	NYG	46.15	-9.75	22.6%
26	TEN	45.71	-10.19	19.4%
27	TB	44.83	-11.08	16.1%
28	NYJ	43.90	-12.01	12.9%
29	ARI	42.86	-13.05	9.7%
30	CLE	41.38	-14.53	6.5%
31	NO	41.18	-14.73	3.2%
32	LV	40.63	-15.28	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2025 vs 2024

Chiefs lead at 75.00 — they ranked #4 last year. Raiders are last at 40.63 — #15 last year.

The league average is 55.91, down 0.79 from 56.70 last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #32 → #7. Biggest faller: Broncos, #3 → #23.

Spread between first and last: 34.38; 18 teams are within 9.56 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DAL · +28.99

Biggest faller

WAS · −25.42

Most consistent

LAR · 0.00

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▼ -0.79

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	DAL	64.71	35.71	+28.99
2	CAR	69.23	46.67	+22.56
3	CIN	70.00	52.63	+17.37
4	MIN	62.50	46.15	+16.35
5	NE	72.00	58.33	+13.67
6	PIT	52.17	38.89	+13.29
7	SF	59.09	50.00	+9.09
8	BAL	60.00	53.33	+6.67
9	TEN	45.71	39.13	+6.58
10	GB	56.00	50.00	+6.00
11	IND	66.67	60.71	+5.95
12	SEA	58.33	52.63	+5.70
13	JAX	58.62	53.85	+4.77
14	KC	75.00	70.59	+4.41
15	NYJ	43.90	41.67	+2.24
16	LAR	66.67	66.67	0.00
17	MIA	47.83	48.39	−0.56
18	ARI	42.86	44.44	−1.59
19	LAC	60.00	62.50	−2.50
20	HOU	57.89	61.11	−3.22
21	NYG	46.15	54.05	−7.90
22	DET	58.06	66.67	−8.60
23	CHI	51.72	60.53	−8.80
24	CLE	41.38	54.55	−13.17
25	BUF	59.38	72.73	−13.35
26	NO	41.18	55.56	−14.38
27	PHI	55.00	70.37	−15.37
28	LV	40.63	56.00	−15.38
29	ATL	50.00	67.74	−17.74
30	TB	44.83	64.29	−19.46
31	DEN	50.00	71.43	−21.43
32	WAS	61.54	86.96	−25.42

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00), 2021 Patriots (68.75), 2022 Rams (78.95), 2023 Eagles (73.08), 2024 Commanders (86.96), 2025 Chiefs (75.00).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.