What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Commanders led at 86.96; the league average was 56.70.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

WAS · 86.96

League average

56.70

Best to worst

51.24

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	WAS	86.96	17
2	BUF	72.73	17
3	DEN	71.43	17
4	KC	70.59	17
5	PHI	70.37	17
6	ATL	67.74	17
7	DET	66.67	17
8	LAR	66.67	17
9	TB	64.29	17
10	LAC	62.50	17
11	HOU	61.11	17
12	IND	60.71	17
13	CHI	60.53	17
14	NE	58.33	17
15	LV	56.00	17
16	NO	55.56	17
17	CLE	54.55	17
18	NYG	54.05	17
19	JAX	53.85	17
20	BAL	53.33	17
21	CIN	52.63	17
22	SEA	52.63	17
23	GB	50.00	17
24	SF	50.00	17
25	MIA	48.39	17
26	CAR	46.67	17
27	MIN	46.15	17
28	ARI	44.44	17
29	NYJ	41.67	17
30	TEN	39.13	17
31	PIT	38.89	17
32	DAL	35.71	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

WAS · 86.96

League laggard

DAL · 35.71

League average

56.70

Spread (max − min)

51.24

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	WAS	86.96	30.26	100%
2	BUF	72.73	16.03	96.8%
3	DEN	71.43	14.73	93.5%
4	KC	70.59	13.89	90.3%
5	PHI	70.37	13.67	87.1%
6	ATL	67.74	11.05	83.9%
7	DET	66.67	9.97	80.6%
8	LAR	66.67	9.97	77.4%
9	TB	64.29	7.59	74.2%
10	LAC	62.50	5.80	71%
11	HOU	61.11	4.42	67.7%
12	IND	60.71	4.02	64.5%
13	CHI	60.53	3.83	61.3%
14	NE	58.33	1.64	58.1%
15	LV	56.00	-0.70	54.8%
16	NO	55.56	-1.14	51.6%
17	CLE	54.55	-2.15	48.4%
18	NYG	54.05	-2.64	45.2%
19	JAX	53.85	-2.85	41.9%
20	BAL	53.33	-3.36	38.7%
21	CIN	52.63	-4.06	35.5%
22	SEA	52.63	-4.06	32.3%
23	GB	50.00	-6.70	29%
24	SF	50.00	-6.70	25.8%
25	MIA	48.39	-8.31	22.6%
26	CAR	46.67	-10.03	19.4%
27	MIN	46.15	-10.54	16.1%
28	ARI	44.44	-12.25	12.9%
29	NYJ	41.67	-15.03	9.7%
30	TEN	39.13	-17.57	6.5%
31	PIT	38.89	-17.81	3.2%
32	DAL	35.71	-20.98	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2024 vs 2023

Commanders lead at 86.96 — they ranked #12 last year. Cowboys are last at 35.71 — #8 last year.

The league average is 56.70, up 4.41 from 52.29 last year.

Biggest riser: Falcons, #29 → #6. Biggest faller: Cowboys, #8 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 51.24; 22 teams are within 11.34 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +31.78

Biggest faller

DAL · −23.38

Most consistent

GB · 0.00

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▲ 4.41

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	WAS	86.96	55.17	+31.78
2	ATL	67.74	42.11	+25.64
3	HOU	61.11	38.10	+23.02
4	NE	58.33	36.00	+22.33
5	KC	70.59	52.63	+17.96
6	BUF	72.73	56.25	+16.48
7	LAC	62.50	46.88	+15.63
8	SEA	52.63	37.50	+15.13
9	DET	66.67	52.50	+14.17
10	IND	60.71	50.00	+10.71
11	CHI	60.53	50.00	+10.53
12	JAX	53.85	44.83	+9.02
13	NO	55.56	47.37	+8.19
14	DEN	71.43	65.00	+6.43
15	NYG	54.05	48.65	+5.41
16	CIN	52.63	47.37	+5.26
17	LAR	66.67	61.90	+4.76
18	MIA	48.39	45.83	+2.55
19	ARI	44.44	44.12	+0.33
20	GB	50.00	50.00	0.00
21	CAR	46.67	47.92	−1.25
22	CLE	54.55	56.25	−1.70
23	TB	64.29	66.67	−2.38
24	PHI	70.37	73.08	−2.71
25	SF	50.00	53.85	−3.85
26	LV	56.00	60.87	−4.87
27	BAL	53.33	61.54	−8.21
28	PIT	38.89	47.37	−8.48
29	MIN	46.15	60.71	−14.56
30	TEN	39.13	55.00	−15.87
31	NYJ	41.67	58.62	−16.95
32	DAL	35.71	59.09	−23.38

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00), 2021 Patriots (68.75), 2022 Rams (78.95), 2023 Eagles (73.08), 2024 Commanders (86.96).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.