What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Chargers led at 87.50; the league average was 57.10.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

LAC · 87.50

League average

57.10

Best to worst

50.00

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAC	87.50	16
2	NO	81.25	16
3	KC	80.00	16
4	SEA	78.57	16
5	TB	69.23	16
6	HOU	66.67	16
7	PIT	64.29	16
8	MIA	61.54	16
9	DET	61.11	16
10	PHI	60.87	16
11	CHI	60.00	16
12	DEN	60.00	16
13	NYG	60.00	16
14	BAL	59.09	16
15	TEN	58.33	16
16	DAL	57.14	16
17	SF	55.56	16
18	WAS	55.56	16
19	CIN	52.94	16
20	ATL	52.63	16
21	NYJ	52.38	16
22	GB	50.00	16
23	IND	50.00	16
24	NE	50.00	16
25	CAR	47.37	16
26	JAX	47.06	16
27	LV	43.75	16
28	CLE	42.86	16
29	MIN	42.86	16
30	BUF	41.18	16
31	LAR	40.00	16
32	ARI	37.50	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 87.50

League laggard

ARI · 37.50

League average

57.10

Spread (max − min)

50.00

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAC	87.50	30.40	100%
2	NO	81.25	24.15	96.8%
3	KC	80.00	22.90	93.5%
4	SEA	78.57	21.47	90.3%
5	TB	69.23	12.13	87.1%
6	HOU	66.67	9.57	83.9%
7	PIT	64.29	7.18	80.6%
8	MIA	61.54	4.44	77.4%
9	DET	61.11	4.01	74.2%
10	PHI	60.87	3.77	71%
11	CHI	60.00	2.90	67.7%
12	DEN	60.00	2.90	64.5%
13	NYG	60.00	2.90	61.3%
14	BAL	59.09	1.99	58.1%
15	TEN	58.33	1.23	54.8%
16	DAL	57.14	0.04	51.6%
17	SF	55.56	-1.55	48.4%
18	WAS	55.56	-1.55	45.2%
19	CIN	52.94	-4.16	41.9%
20	ATL	52.63	-4.47	38.7%
21	NYJ	52.38	-4.72	35.5%
22	GB	50.00	-7.10	32.3%
23	IND	50.00	-7.10	29%
24	NE	50.00	-7.10	25.8%
25	CAR	47.37	-9.73	22.6%
26	JAX	47.06	-10.04	19.4%
27	LV	43.75	-13.35	16.1%
28	CLE	42.86	-14.24	12.9%
29	MIN	42.86	-14.24	9.7%
30	BUF	41.18	-15.92	6.5%
31	LAR	40.00	-17.10	3.2%
32	ARI	37.50	-19.60	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.