What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Patriots led at 68.75; the league average was 53.70.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

NE · 68.75

League average

53.70

Best to worst

32.39

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NE	68.75	17
2	BAL	66.67	17
3	KC	66.67	17
4	CIN	65.00	17
5	LAC	64.71	17
6	LV	63.16	17
7	TEN	62.50	17
8	IND	62.07	17
9	GB	59.09	17
10	MIA	59.09	17
11	ARI	58.62	17
12	DAL	58.33	17
13	JAX	58.06	17
14	DEN	57.14	17
15	TB	56.25	17
16	MIN	54.55	17
17	LAR	52.63	17
18	NO	52.38	17
19	DET	51.22	17
20	BUF	50.00	17
21	SF	50.00	17
22	WAS	50.00	17
23	NYJ	48.28	17
24	PIT	47.62	17
25	NYG	46.67	17
26	PHI	44.00	17
27	HOU	42.86	17
28	ATL	41.67	17
29	CHI	41.67	17
30	CLE	41.38	17
31	CAR	41.18	17
32	SEA	36.36	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NE · 68.75

League laggard

SEA · 36.36

League average

53.70

Spread (max − min)

32.39

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NE	68.75	15.05	100%
2	BAL	66.67	12.96	96.8%
3	KC	66.67	12.96	93.5%
4	CIN	65.00	11.30	90.3%
5	LAC	64.71	11.00	87.1%
6	LV	63.16	9.45	83.9%
7	TEN	62.50	8.80	80.6%
8	IND	62.07	8.36	77.4%
9	GB	59.09	5.39	74.2%
10	MIA	59.09	5.39	71%
11	ARI	58.62	4.92	67.7%
12	DAL	58.33	4.63	64.5%
13	JAX	58.06	4.36	61.3%
14	DEN	57.14	3.44	58.1%
15	TB	56.25	2.55	54.8%
16	MIN	54.55	0.84	51.6%
17	LAR	52.63	-1.07	48.4%
18	NO	52.38	-1.32	45.2%
19	DET	51.22	-2.49	41.9%
20	BUF	50.00	-3.70	38.7%
21	SF	50.00	-3.70	35.5%
22	WAS	50.00	-3.70	32.3%
23	NYJ	48.28	-5.43	29%
24	PIT	47.62	-6.09	25.8%
25	NYG	46.67	-7.04	22.6%
26	PHI	44.00	-9.70	19.4%
27	HOU	42.86	-10.85	16.1%
28	ATL	41.67	-12.04	12.9%
29	CHI	41.67	-12.04	9.7%
30	CLE	41.38	-12.33	6.5%
31	CAR	41.18	-12.53	3.2%
32	SEA	36.36	-17.34	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2021 vs 2020

Patriots lead at 68.75 — they ranked #22 last year. Seahawks are last at 36.36 — #15 last year.

The league average is 53.70, down 2.41 from 56.11 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #22 → #1. Biggest faller: Bills, #1 → #20.

Spread between first and last: 32.39; 18 teams are within 8.78 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

JAX · +31.14

Biggest faller

BUF · −30.00

Most consistent

TEN · 0.00

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -2.41

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	JAX	58.06	26.92	+31.14
2	DEN	57.14	26.67	+30.48
3	LAC	64.71	48.00	+16.71
4	NE	68.75	52.94	+15.81
5	KC	66.67	56.25	+10.42
6	SF	50.00	40.00	+10.00
7	NYJ	48.28	38.89	+9.39
8	CLE	41.38	33.33	+8.05
9	LAR	52.63	47.06	+5.57
10	BAL	66.67	63.16	+3.51
11	DAL	58.33	54.84	+3.49
12	DET	51.22	50.00	+1.22
13	PHI	44.00	42.86	+1.14
14	TEN	62.50	62.50	0.00
15	TB	56.25	57.14	−0.89
16	IND	62.07	64.00	−1.93
17	MIN	54.55	56.52	−1.98
18	GB	59.09	61.90	−2.81
19	PIT	47.62	52.63	−5.01
20	CIN	65.00	70.37	−5.37
21	ARI	58.62	68.00	−9.38
22	WAS	50.00	61.11	−11.11
23	LV	63.16	76.19	−13.03
24	HOU	42.86	56.25	−13.39
25	CAR	41.18	55.56	−14.38
26	ATL	41.67	57.69	−16.03
27	NYG	46.67	63.64	−16.97
28	CHI	41.67	60.71	−19.05
29	SEA	36.36	57.14	−20.78
30	MIA	59.09	80.00	−20.91
31	NO	52.38	73.33	−20.95
32	BUF	50.00	80.00	−30.00

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00), 2021 Patriots (68.75).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

The league average has fallen from 57.10 in 2018 to 53.70 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.