What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Ravens led at 70.83; the league average was 47.36.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

BAL · 70.83

League average

47.36

Best to worst

57.50

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	70.83	16
2	DEN	68.75	16
3	ARI	65.00	16
4	ATL	61.90	16
5	KC	60.00	16
6	IND	58.33	16
7	SF	58.33	16
8	LV	57.89	16
9	LAC	55.56	16
10	MIN	53.33	16
11	TB	52.94	16
12	HOU	52.00	16
13	CAR	50.00	16
14	CIN	50.00	16
15	GB	50.00	16
16	JAX	50.00	16
17	SEA	50.00	16
18	MIA	46.43	16
19	NYG	45.16	16
20	BUF	44.44	16
21	DAL	43.75	16
22	WAS	42.86	16
23	CLE	41.18	16
24	NE	40.00	16
25	DET	38.46	16
26	NO	38.46	16
27	NYJ	36.84	16
28	PHI	34.78	16
29	CHI	33.33	16
30	TEN	28.57	16
31	LAR	23.08	16
32	PIT	13.33	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 70.83

League laggard

PIT · 13.33

League average

47.36

Spread (max − min)

57.50

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	70.83	23.47	100%
2	DEN	68.75	21.39	96.8%
3	ARI	65.00	17.64	93.5%
4	ATL	61.90	14.54	90.3%
5	KC	60.00	12.64	87.1%
6	IND	58.33	10.97	83.9%
7	SF	58.33	10.97	80.6%
8	LV	57.89	10.53	77.4%
9	LAC	55.56	8.19	74.2%
10	MIN	53.33	5.97	71%
11	TB	52.94	5.58	67.7%
12	HOU	52.00	4.64	64.5%
13	CAR	50.00	2.64	61.3%
14	CIN	50.00	2.64	58.1%
15	GB	50.00	2.64	54.8%
16	JAX	50.00	2.64	51.6%
17	SEA	50.00	2.64	48.4%
18	MIA	46.43	-0.93	45.2%
19	NYG	45.16	-2.20	41.9%
20	BUF	44.44	-2.92	38.7%
21	DAL	43.75	-3.61	35.5%
22	WAS	42.86	-4.50	32.3%
23	CLE	41.18	-6.18	29%
24	NE	40.00	-7.36	25.8%
25	DET	38.46	-8.90	22.6%
26	NO	38.46	-8.90	19.4%
27	NYJ	36.84	-10.52	16.1%
28	PHI	34.78	-12.58	12.9%
29	CHI	33.33	-14.03	9.7%
30	TEN	28.57	-18.79	6.5%
31	LAR	23.08	-24.28	3.2%
32	PIT	13.33	-34.03	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2019 vs 2018

Ravens lead at 70.83 — they ranked #14 last year. Steelers are last at 13.33 — #7 last year.

The league average is 47.36, down 9.74 from 57.10 last year.

Biggest riser: Cardinals, #32 → #3. Biggest faller: Steelers, #7 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 57.50; 23 teams are within 12.62 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

ARI · +27.50

Biggest faller

PIT · −50.95

Most consistent

GB · 0.00

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -9.74

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	ARI	65.00	37.50	+27.50
2	LV	57.89	43.75	+14.14
3	BAL	70.83	59.09	+11.74
4	MIN	53.33	42.86	+10.48
5	ATL	61.90	52.63	+9.27
6	DEN	68.75	60.00	+8.75
7	IND	58.33	50.00	+8.33
8	BUF	44.44	41.18	+3.27
9	JAX	50.00	47.06	+2.94
10	SF	58.33	55.56	+2.78
11	CAR	50.00	47.37	+2.63
12	GB	50.00	50.00	0.00
13	CLE	41.18	42.86	−1.68
14	CIN	50.00	52.94	−2.94
15	NE	40.00	50.00	−10.00
16	WAS	42.86	55.56	−12.70
17	DAL	43.75	57.14	−13.39
18	HOU	52.00	66.67	−14.67
19	NYG	45.16	60.00	−14.84
20	MIA	46.43	61.54	−15.11
21	NYJ	36.84	52.38	−15.54
22	TB	52.94	69.23	−16.29
23	LAR	23.08	40.00	−16.92
24	KC	60.00	80.00	−20.00
25	DET	38.46	61.11	−22.65
26	PHI	34.78	60.87	−26.09
27	CHI	33.33	60.00	−26.67
28	SEA	50.00	78.57	−28.57
29	TEN	28.57	58.33	−29.76
30	LAC	55.56	87.50	−31.94
31	NO	38.46	81.25	−42.79
32	PIT	13.33	64.29	−50.95

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

The league average has fallen from 57.10 in 2018 to 47.36 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.