What Fourth down pct is

Fourth-down conversion rate: fourth downs converted divided by fourth downs attempted, as a percentage. The samples are small — a dozen attempts in a season is normal — so a high rate can be a few plays.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Bills led at 80.00; the league average was 56.11.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

BUF · 80.00

League average

56.11

Best to worst

53.33

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	80.00	16
2	MIA	80.00	16
3	LV	76.19	16
4	NO	73.33	16
5	CIN	70.37	16
6	ARI	68.00	16
7	IND	64.00	16
8	NYG	63.64	16
9	BAL	63.16	16
10	TEN	62.50	16
11	GB	61.90	16
12	WAS	61.11	16
13	CHI	60.71	16
14	ATL	57.69	16
15	SEA	57.14	16
16	TB	57.14	16
17	MIN	56.52	16
18	HOU	56.25	16
19	KC	56.25	16
20	CAR	55.56	16
21	DAL	54.84	16
22	NE	52.94	16
23	PIT	52.63	16
24	DET	50.00	16
25	LAC	48.00	16
26	LAR	47.06	16
27	PHI	42.86	16
28	SF	40.00	16
29	NYJ	38.89	16
30	CLE	33.33	16
31	JAX	26.92	16
32	DEN	26.67	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 80.00

League laggard

DEN · 26.67

League average

56.11

Spread (max − min)

53.33

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	80.00	23.89	100%
2	MIA	80.00	23.89	96.8%
3	LV	76.19	20.08	93.5%
4	NO	73.33	17.22	90.3%
5	CIN	70.37	14.26	87.1%
6	ARI	68.00	11.89	83.9%
7	IND	64.00	7.89	80.6%
8	NYG	63.64	7.52	77.4%
9	BAL	63.16	7.04	74.2%
10	TEN	62.50	6.39	71%
11	GB	61.90	5.79	67.7%
12	WAS	61.11	5.00	64.5%
13	CHI	60.71	4.60	61.3%
14	ATL	57.69	1.58	58.1%
15	SEA	57.14	1.03	54.8%
16	TB	57.14	1.03	51.6%
17	MIN	56.52	0.41	48.4%
18	HOU	56.25	0.14	45.2%
19	KC	56.25	0.14	41.9%
20	CAR	55.56	-0.56	38.7%
21	DAL	54.84	-1.27	35.5%
22	NE	52.94	-3.17	32.3%
23	PIT	52.63	-3.48	29%
24	DET	50.00	-6.11	25.8%
25	LAC	48.00	-8.11	22.6%
26	LAR	47.06	-9.05	19.4%
27	PHI	42.86	-13.26	16.1%
28	SF	40.00	-16.11	12.9%
29	NYJ	38.89	-17.22	9.7%
30	CLE	33.33	-22.78	6.5%
31	JAX	26.92	-29.19	3.2%
32	DEN	26.67	-29.45	0%

Does Fourth down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 856–722–37 ATS (54.2%) across 2020–2025, #91 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (142–112, 55.9%); its worst 2021 (140–130, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	142–112–2	55.9%
2021	272	140–130–2	51.9%
2022	271	147–117–7	55.7%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	147–116–9	55.9%
2025	272	145–124–3	53.9%

Fourth down pct in 2020 vs 2019

Bills lead at 80.00 — they ranked #20 last year. Broncos are last at 26.67 — #2 last year.

The league average is 56.11, up 8.75 from 47.36 last year.

Biggest riser: Saints, #26 → #4. Biggest faller: Broncos, #2 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 53.33; 22 teams are within 13.30 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PIT · +39.30

Biggest faller

DEN · −42.08

Most consistent

NYJ · +2.05

League trend 2020 vs 2019

▲ 8.75

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	PIT	52.63	13.33	+39.30
2	BUF	80.00	44.44	+35.56
3	NO	73.33	38.46	+34.87
4	TEN	62.50	28.57	+33.93
5	MIA	80.00	46.43	+33.57
6	CHI	60.71	33.33	+27.38
7	LAR	47.06	23.08	+23.98
8	CIN	70.37	50.00	+20.37
9	NYG	63.64	45.16	+18.48
10	LV	76.19	57.89	+18.30
11	WAS	61.11	42.86	+18.25
12	NE	52.94	40.00	+12.94
13	GB	61.90	50.00	+11.90
14	DET	50.00	38.46	+11.54
15	DAL	54.84	43.75	+11.09
16	PHI	42.86	34.78	+8.07
17	SEA	57.14	50.00	+7.14
18	IND	64.00	58.33	+5.67
19	CAR	55.56	50.00	+5.56
20	HOU	56.25	52.00	+4.25
21	TB	57.14	52.94	+4.20
22	MIN	56.52	53.33	+3.19
23	ARI	68.00	65.00	+3.00
24	NYJ	38.89	36.84	+2.05
25	KC	56.25	60.00	−3.75
26	ATL	57.69	61.90	−4.21
27	LAC	48.00	55.56	−7.56
28	BAL	63.16	70.83	−7.68
29	CLE	33.33	41.18	−7.84
30	SF	40.00	58.33	−18.33
31	JAX	26.92	50.00	−23.08
32	DEN	26.67	68.75	−42.08

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 66.80

Multi-year laggard

CLE · 45.59

Biggest improver

MIN · +5.18/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −6.52/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	66.80	+2.06	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
2	BUF	63.89	+0.81	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
3	LAR	62.34	+2.22	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
4	MIN	61.11	+5.18	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
5	IND	60.33	+1.78	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
6	WAS	59.99	+1.79	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
7	NE	59.14	+4.64	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
8	CIN	57.91	+1.84	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
9	DET	57.89	+3.37	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
10	LV	57.29	−4.35	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
11	DEN	55.27	+4.54	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67
12	NYG	54.54	+1.41	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
13	NO	54.45	+0.06	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
14	PHI	53.75	−1.37	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
15	GB	53.67	−0.02	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
16	DAL	53.62	−0.67	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
17	ARI	53.34	−0.74	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
18	PIT	53.15	−0.12	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
19	TB	53.05	−3.49	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
20	BAL	52.81	−4.09	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
21	MIA	51.98	−6.52	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
22	LAC	51.52	−2.48	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
23	CAR	50.74	−0.30	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
24	CHI	50.19	+0.90	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
25	TEN	50.16	−4.82	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
26	NYJ	49.38	+3.64	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
27	JAX	49.16	+2.58	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
28	SF	49.16	+2.04	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
29	ATL	48.93	−1.38	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
30	HOU	47.83	−1.49	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
31	SEA	47.49	−1.14	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
32	CLE	45.59	+0.44	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	80.00	50.00	53.85	56.25	72.73	59.38	75.00
MIA	80.00	59.09	54.17	45.83	48.39	47.83	28.57
LV	76.19	63.16	54.17	60.87	56.00	40.63	50.00
NO	73.33	52.38	36.36	47.37	55.56	41.18	75.00
CIN	70.37	65.00	25.00	47.37	52.63	70.00	75.00
ARI	68.00	58.62	43.90	44.12	44.44	42.86	71.43
IND	64.00	62.07	46.15	50.00	60.71	66.67	72.73
NYG	63.64	46.67	47.62	48.65	54.05	46.15	75.00
BAL	63.16	66.67	40.00	61.54	53.33	60.00	25.00
TEN	62.50	62.50	52.94	55.00	39.13	45.71	33.33
GB	61.90	59.09	38.71	50.00	50.00	56.00	60.00
WAS	61.11	50.00	48.00	55.17	86.96	61.54	57.14
CHI	60.71	41.67	33.33	50.00	60.53	51.72	53.33
ATL	57.69	41.67	50.00	42.11	67.74	50.00	33.33
SEA	57.14	36.36	57.14	37.50	52.63	58.33	33.33
TB	57.14	56.25	53.57	66.67	64.29	44.83	28.57
MIN	56.52	54.55	47.37	60.71	46.15	62.50	100.00
HOU	56.25	42.86	50.00	38.10	61.11	57.89	28.57
KC	56.25	66.67	75.00	52.63	70.59	75.00	71.43
CAR	55.56	41.18	57.14	47.92	46.67	69.23	37.50
DAL	54.84	58.33	52.63	59.09	35.71	64.71	50.00
NE	52.94	68.75	38.46	36.00	58.33	72.00	87.50
PIT	52.63	47.62	73.33	47.37	38.89	52.17	60.00
DET	50.00	51.22	54.05	52.50	66.67	58.06	72.73
LAC	48.00	64.71	53.57	46.88	62.50	60.00	25.00
LAR	47.06	52.63	78.95	61.90	66.67	66.67	62.50
PHI	42.86	44.00	68.75	73.08	70.37	55.00	22.22
SF	40.00	50.00	41.18	53.85	50.00	59.09	50.00
NYJ	38.89	48.28	39.29	58.62	41.67	43.90	75.00
CLE	33.33	41.38	54.76	56.25	54.55	41.38	37.50
JAX	26.92	58.06	51.85	44.83	53.85	58.62	50.00
DEN	26.67	57.14	50.00	65.00	71.43	50.00	66.67

Fourth down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chargers (87.50), 2019 Ravens (70.83), 2020 Bills (80.00).

The best season on record is Chargers 2018 at 87.50; the worst Steelers 2019 at 13.33.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.