What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Jaguars led at 32.26; the league average was 51.10.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

JAX · 32.26

League average

51.10

Best to worst

40.82

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	JAX	32.26	17
2	MIN	37.93	17
3	NE	38.46	17
4	ATL	38.89	17
5	CIN	39.13	16
6	SEA	39.29	17
7	CHI	40.00	17
8	LAC	40.00	17
9	SF	40.00	17
10	NO	42.11	17
11	NYJ	42.31	17
12	CAR	44.44	17
13	CLE	44.44	17
14	WAS	48.00	17
15	MIA	48.39	17
16	ARI	50.00	17
17	IND	52.00	17
18	DAL	54.55	17
19	LV	55.00	17
20	DET	55.56	17
21	KC	57.14	17
22	BUF	57.58	16
23	GB	57.89	17
24	TB	58.33	17
25	PHI	60.00	17
26	PIT	61.90	17
27	BAL	62.50	17
28	DEN	64.29	17
29	NYG	64.71	17
30	HOU	65.00	17
31	LAR	70.00	17
32	TEN	73.08	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

JAX · 32.26

League laggard

TEN · 73.08

League average

51.10

Spread (max − min)

40.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	JAX	32.26	-18.84	100%
2	MIN	37.93	-13.17	96.8%
3	NE	38.46	-12.64	93.5%
4	ATL	38.89	-12.21	90.3%
5	CIN	39.13	-11.97	87.1%
6	SEA	39.29	-11.81	83.9%
7	CHI	40.00	-11.10	80.6%
8	LAC	40.00	-11.10	77.4%
9	SF	40.00	-11.10	74.2%
10	NO	42.11	-8.99	71%
11	NYJ	42.31	-8.79	67.7%
12	CAR	44.44	-6.65	64.5%
13	CLE	44.44	-6.65	61.3%
14	WAS	48.00	-3.10	58.1%
15	MIA	48.39	-2.71	54.8%
16	ARI	50.00	-1.10	51.6%
17	IND	52.00	0.90	48.4%
18	DAL	54.55	3.45	45.2%
19	LV	55.00	3.90	41.9%
20	DET	55.56	4.46	38.7%
21	KC	57.14	6.04	35.5%
22	BUF	57.58	6.48	32.3%
23	GB	57.89	6.80	29%
24	TB	58.33	7.23	25.8%
25	PHI	60.00	8.90	22.6%
26	PIT	61.90	10.81	19.4%
27	BAL	62.50	11.40	16.1%
28	DEN	64.29	13.19	12.9%
29	NYG	64.71	13.61	9.7%
30	HOU	65.00	13.90	6.5%
31	LAR	70.00	18.90	3.2%
32	TEN	73.08	21.98	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2022 vs 2021

Jaguars lead at 32.26 — they ranked #31 last year. Titans are last at 73.08 — #22 last year.

The league average is 51.10, down 2.65 from 53.75 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #31 → #1. Biggest faller: Broncos, #4 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 40.82; 16 teams are within 10.75 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DEN · +21.98

Biggest faller

JAX · −34.41

Most consistent

CIN · +0.24

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -2.65

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	DEN	64.29	42.31	+21.98
2	LAR	70.00	53.13	+16.88
3	TEN	73.08	58.33	+14.74
4	GB	57.89	45.45	+12.44
5	TB	58.33	46.43	+11.90
6	BUF	57.58	47.06	+10.52
7	PHI	60.00	51.72	+8.28
8	LAC	40.00	31.82	+8.18
9	PIT	61.90	54.17	+7.74
10	HOU	65.00	57.89	+7.11
11	ARI	50.00	46.67	+3.33
12	BAL	62.50	61.11	+1.39
13	CIN	39.13	38.89	+0.24
14	NYG	64.71	65.22	−0.51
15	NO	42.11	42.86	−0.75
16	SEA	39.29	41.94	−2.65
17	SF	40.00	44.00	−4.00
18	KC	57.14	61.29	−4.15
19	IND	52.00	57.14	−5.14
20	DAL	54.55	61.54	−6.99
21	DET	55.56	64.29	−8.73
22	WAS	48.00	57.14	−9.14
23	CHI	40.00	50.00	−10.00
24	ATL	38.89	50.00	−11.11
25	MIN	37.93	50.00	−12.07
26	CAR	44.44	57.14	−12.70
27	MIA	48.39	61.11	−12.72
28	LV	55.00	72.41	−17.41
29	NE	38.46	56.25	−17.79
30	CLE	44.44	64.00	−19.56
31	NYJ	42.31	61.90	−19.60
32	JAX	32.26	66.67	−34.41

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00), 2021 Chargers (31.82), 2022 Jaguars (32.26).

Jaguars have led this stat 2 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

The league average has fallen from 55.71 in 2018 to 51.10 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.