What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Browns led at 40.00; the league average was 52.07.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

CLE · 40.00

League average

52.07

Best to worst

32.00

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CLE	40.00	17
2	BAL	40.63	17
3	NO	42.31	17
4	NYJ	43.75	17
5	PIT	44.44	17
6	CHI	45.45	17
7	KC	46.43	17
8	CIN	46.67	17
9	GB	46.67	17
10	MIA	46.67	17
11	ATL	47.83	17
12	TB	48.00	17
13	DEN	48.48	17
14	ARI	50.00	17
15	JAX	51.22	17
16	DAL	51.35	17
17	SF	51.85	17
18	SEA	52.00	17
19	BUF	52.63	17
20	NYG	52.63	17
21	LAR	53.33	17
22	LV	53.85	17
23	HOU	55.17	17
24	NE	55.56	17
25	PHI	55.88	17
26	TEN	57.14	17
27	DET	57.69	17
28	LAC	59.38	17
29	WAS	61.90	17
30	IND	65.38	17
31	CAR	70.00	17
32	MIN	72.00	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CLE · 40.00

League laggard

MIN · 72.00

League average

52.07

Spread (max − min)

32.00

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CLE	40.00	-12.07	100%
2	BAL	40.63	-11.45	96.8%
3	NO	42.31	-9.76	93.5%
4	NYJ	43.75	-8.32	90.3%
5	PIT	44.44	-7.63	87.1%
6	CHI	45.45	-6.62	83.9%
7	KC	46.43	-5.64	80.6%
8	CIN	46.67	-5.41	77.4%
9	GB	46.67	-5.41	74.2%
10	MIA	46.67	-5.41	71%
11	ATL	47.83	-4.25	67.7%
12	TB	48.00	-4.07	64.5%
13	DEN	48.48	-3.59	61.3%
14	ARI	50.00	-2.07	58.1%
15	JAX	51.22	-0.85	54.8%
16	DAL	51.35	-0.72	51.6%
17	SF	51.85	-0.22	48.4%
18	SEA	52.00	-0.07	45.2%
19	BUF	52.63	0.56	41.9%
20	NYG	52.63	0.56	38.7%
21	LAR	53.33	1.26	35.5%
22	LV	53.85	1.77	32.3%
23	HOU	55.17	3.10	29%
24	NE	55.56	3.48	25.8%
25	PHI	55.88	3.81	22.6%
26	TEN	57.14	5.07	19.4%
27	DET	57.69	5.62	16.1%
28	LAC	59.38	7.30	12.9%
29	WAS	61.90	9.83	9.7%
30	IND	65.38	13.31	6.5%
31	CAR	70.00	17.93	3.2%
32	MIN	72.00	19.93	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2023 vs 2022

Browns lead at 40.00 — they ranked #13 last year. Vikings are last at 72.00 — #2 last year.

The league average is 52.07, up 0.97 from 51.10 last year.

Biggest riser: Ravens, #27 → #2. Biggest faller: Vikings, #2 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 32.00; 23 teams are within 7.63 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +34.07

Biggest faller

BAL · −21.88

Most consistent

ARI · 0.00

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.97

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	MIN	72.00	37.93	+34.07
2	CAR	70.00	44.44	+25.56
3	LAC	59.38	40.00	+19.38
4	JAX	51.22	32.26	+18.96
5	NE	55.56	38.46	+17.09
6	WAS	61.90	48.00	+13.90
7	IND	65.38	52.00	+13.38
8	SEA	52.00	39.29	+12.71
9	SF	51.85	40.00	+11.85
10	ATL	47.83	38.89	+8.94
11	CIN	46.67	39.13	+7.54
12	CHI	45.45	40.00	+5.45
13	DET	57.69	55.56	+2.14
14	NYJ	43.75	42.31	+1.44
15	NO	42.31	42.11	+0.20
16	ARI	50.00	50.00	0.00
17	LV	53.85	55.00	−1.15
18	MIA	46.67	48.39	−1.72
19	DAL	51.35	54.55	−3.19
20	PHI	55.88	60.00	−4.12
21	CLE	40.00	44.44	−4.44
22	BUF	52.63	57.58	−4.94
23	HOU	55.17	65.00	−9.83
24	TB	48.00	58.33	−10.33
25	KC	46.43	57.14	−10.71
26	GB	46.67	57.89	−11.23
27	NYG	52.63	64.71	−12.07
28	DEN	48.48	64.29	−15.80
29	TEN	57.14	73.08	−15.93
30	LAR	53.33	70.00	−16.67
31	PIT	44.44	61.90	−17.46
32	BAL	40.63	62.50	−21.88

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00), 2021 Chargers (31.82), 2022 Jaguars (32.26), 2023 Browns (40.00).

Jaguars have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

The league average has fallen from 55.71 in 2018 to 52.07 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.