What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Steelers led at 25.00; the league average was 55.41.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

PIT · 25.00

League average

55.41

Best to worst

57.35

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	PIT	25.00	16
2	WAS	37.50	16
3	PHI	41.18	16
4	NYJ	41.67	16
5	IND	42.86	16
6	LAR	42.86	16
7	ATL	43.48	16
8	SEA	43.48	16
9	BAL	45.71	16
10	MIA	46.15	16
11	DAL	47.62	16
12	DEN	50.00	16
13	HOU	52.38	16
14	NO	53.33	16
15	NE	56.25	16
16	TEN	57.69	16
17	BUF	57.89	16
18	GB	58.33	16
19	TB	58.33	16
20	CAR	60.00	16
21	DET	61.11	16
22	NYG	61.11	16
23	CHI	61.90	16
24	CIN	62.50	16
25	KC	65.00	16
26	SF	65.00	16
27	ARI	66.67	16
28	JAX	66.67	16
29	LAC	66.67	16
30	MIN	70.83	16
31	CLE	81.48	16
32	LV	82.35	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

PIT · 25.00

League laggard

LV · 82.35

League average

55.41

Spread (max − min)

57.35

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	PIT	25.00	-30.41	100%
2	WAS	37.50	-17.91	96.8%
3	PHI	41.18	-14.23	93.5%
4	NYJ	41.67	-13.74	90.3%
5	IND	42.86	-12.55	87.1%
6	LAR	42.86	-12.55	83.9%
7	ATL	43.48	-11.93	80.6%
8	SEA	43.48	-11.93	77.4%
9	BAL	45.71	-9.69	74.2%
10	MIA	46.15	-9.25	71%
11	DAL	47.62	-7.79	67.7%
12	DEN	50.00	-5.41	64.5%
13	HOU	52.38	-3.03	61.3%
14	NO	53.33	-2.07	58.1%
15	NE	56.25	0.84	54.8%
16	TEN	57.69	2.29	51.6%
17	BUF	57.89	2.49	48.4%
18	GB	58.33	2.93	45.2%
19	TB	58.33	2.93	41.9%
20	CAR	60.00	4.59	38.7%
21	DET	61.11	5.70	35.5%
22	NYG	61.11	5.70	32.3%
23	CHI	61.90	6.50	29%
24	CIN	62.50	7.09	25.8%
25	KC	65.00	9.59	22.6%
26	SF	65.00	9.59	19.4%
27	ARI	66.67	11.26	16.1%
28	JAX	66.67	11.26	12.9%
29	LAC	66.67	11.26	9.7%
30	MIN	70.83	15.43	6.5%
31	CLE	81.48	26.07	3.2%
32	LV	82.35	26.95	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2020 vs 2019

Steelers lead at 25.00 — they ranked #16 last year. Raiders are last at 82.35 — #32 last year.

The league average is 55.41, up 6.91 from 48.49 last year.

Biggest riser: Commanders, #30 → #2. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #1 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 57.35; 23 teams are within 12.42 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CLE · +46.19

Biggest faller

WAS · −25.66

Most consistent

IND · +0.75

League trend 2020 vs 2019

▲ 6.91

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	CLE	81.48	35.29	+46.19
2	ARI	66.67	21.43	+45.24
3	SF	65.00	32.00	+33.00
4	JAX	66.67	45.45	+21.21
5	NE	56.25	36.36	+19.89
6	BUF	57.89	40.00	+17.89
7	TEN	57.69	40.00	+17.69
8	MIN	70.83	55.17	+15.66
9	NYJ	41.67	27.27	+14.39
10	GB	58.33	44.44	+13.89
11	KC	65.00	51.61	+13.39
12	LV	82.35	69.23	+13.12
13	CIN	62.50	50.00	+12.50
14	BAL	45.71	33.33	+12.38
15	HOU	52.38	41.18	+11.20
16	DET	61.11	50.00	+11.11
17	TB	58.33	48.15	+10.19
18	NO	53.33	44.00	+9.33
19	CHI	61.90	56.52	+5.38
20	LAC	66.67	61.54	+5.13
21	NYG	61.11	57.14	+3.97
22	DEN	50.00	47.37	+2.63
23	DAL	47.62	45.45	+2.16
24	IND	42.86	42.11	+0.75
25	CAR	60.00	66.67	−6.67
26	SEA	43.48	58.33	−14.86
27	MIA	46.15	61.54	−15.38
28	LAR	42.86	58.33	−15.48
29	ATL	43.48	60.00	−16.52
30	PHI	41.18	61.11	−19.93
31	PIT	25.00	47.62	−22.62
32	WAS	37.50	63.16	−25.66

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.