What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Chiefs led at 26.09; the league average was 55.66.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

KC · 26.09

League average

55.66

Best to worst

48.91

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	26.09	17
2	NE	33.33	17
3	JAX	35.48	17
4	PHI	37.93	17
5	CLE	38.89	17
6	TB	46.67	17
7	HOU	47.62	17
8	CHI	47.83	17
9	ARI	48.00	17
10	DEN	51.85	17
11	LAC	52.00	17
12	SEA	52.27	17
13	BUF	52.63	17
14	NO	52.94	17
15	IND	53.57	17
16	SF	54.55	17
17	LAR	54.76	17
18	GB	55.56	17
19	BAL	56.10	17
20	ATL	59.38	17
21	WAS	62.50	17
22	CAR	63.64	17
23	DAL	65.00	17
24	LV	65.00	17
25	DET	65.63	17
26	CIN	66.67	17
27	MIN	69.57	17
28	MIA	71.43	17
29	NYG	72.73	17
30	NYJ	72.73	17
31	PIT	73.68	17
32	TEN	75.00	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 26.09

League laggard

TEN · 75.00

League average

55.66

Spread (max − min)

48.91

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	26.09	-29.57	100%
2	NE	33.33	-22.32	96.8%
3	JAX	35.48	-20.17	93.5%
4	PHI	37.93	-17.73	90.3%
5	CLE	38.89	-16.77	87.1%
6	TB	46.67	-8.99	83.9%
7	HOU	47.62	-8.04	80.6%
8	CHI	47.83	-7.83	77.4%
9	ARI	48.00	-7.66	74.2%
10	DEN	51.85	-3.80	71%
11	LAC	52.00	-3.66	67.7%
12	SEA	52.27	-3.38	64.5%
13	BUF	52.63	-3.02	61.3%
14	NO	52.94	-2.72	58.1%
15	IND	53.57	-2.08	54.8%
16	SF	54.55	-1.11	51.6%
17	LAR	54.76	-0.89	48.4%
18	GB	55.56	-0.10	45.2%
19	BAL	56.10	0.44	41.9%
20	ATL	59.38	3.72	38.7%
21	WAS	62.50	6.84	35.5%
22	CAR	63.64	7.98	32.3%
23	DAL	65.00	9.34	29%
24	LV	65.00	9.34	25.8%
25	DET	65.63	9.97	22.6%
26	CIN	66.67	11.01	19.4%
27	MIN	69.57	13.91	16.1%
28	MIA	71.43	15.77	12.9%
29	NYG	72.73	17.07	9.7%
30	NYJ	72.73	17.07	6.5%
31	PIT	73.68	18.03	3.2%
32	TEN	75.00	19.34	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2025 vs 2024

Chiefs lead at 26.09 — they ranked #9 last year. Titans are last at 75.00 — #32 last year.

The league average is 55.66, down 1.93 from 57.59 last year.

Biggest riser: Buccaneers, #26 → #6. Biggest faller: Vikings, #1 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 48.91; 21 teams are within 12.43 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +32.42

Biggest faller

KC · −26.09

Most consistent

CHI · +0.46

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▼ -1.93

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	MIN	69.57	37.14	+32.42
2	DET	65.63	41.38	+24.25
3	MIA	71.43	50.00	+21.43
4	NYG	72.73	57.14	+15.58
5	BAL	56.10	42.86	+13.24
6	CIN	66.67	59.26	+7.41
7	ATL	59.38	53.85	+5.53
8	PIT	73.68	68.18	+5.50
9	CAR	63.64	60.00	+3.64
10	SEA	52.27	50.00	+2.27
11	LAR	54.76	52.94	+1.82
12	IND	53.57	52.38	+1.19
13	NO	52.94	51.85	+1.09
14	CHI	47.83	47.37	+0.46
15	BUF	52.63	53.13	−0.49
16	DEN	51.85	53.33	−1.48
17	TEN	75.00	76.92	−1.92
18	DAL	65.00	68.00	−3.00
19	NYJ	72.73	76.19	−3.46
20	WAS	62.50	66.67	−4.17
21	GB	55.56	60.00	−4.44
22	CLE	38.89	44.44	−5.56
23	LAC	52.00	62.07	−10.07
24	ARI	48.00	58.33	−10.33
25	SF	54.55	65.38	−10.84
26	LV	65.00	76.92	−11.92
27	HOU	47.62	65.38	−17.77
28	TB	46.67	65.52	−18.85
29	NE	33.33	52.38	−19.05
30	JAX	35.48	58.33	−22.85
31	PHI	37.93	63.33	−25.40
32	KC	26.09	52.17	−26.09

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00), 2021 Chargers (31.82), 2022 Jaguars (32.26), 2023 Browns (40.00), 2024 Vikings (37.14), 2025 Chiefs (26.09).

Jaguars have led this stat 2 of 8 seasons.

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.