What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Jaguars led at 25.00; the league average was 55.71.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

JAX · 25.00

League average

55.71

Best to worst

57.35

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	JAX	25.00	16
2	NE	37.50	16
3	WAS	38.46	16
4	DAL	42.86	16
5	MIA	42.86	16
6	SEA	46.15	16
7	IND	46.67	16
8	MIN	47.37	16
9	NO	48.28	16
10	BAL	50.00	16
11	TB	50.00	16
12	PIT	53.85	16
13	LAC	55.00	16
14	TEN	55.00	16
15	DET	56.25	16
16	CHI	57.14	16
17	PHI	57.89	16
18	CAR	58.82	16
19	SF	58.82	16
20	BUF	60.00	16
21	DEN	60.00	16
22	HOU	60.00	16
23	LAR	60.00	16
24	ARI	61.54	16
25	NYJ	64.29	16
26	CIN	64.71	16
27	CLE	65.00	16
28	GB	66.67	16
29	KC	66.67	16
30	LV	66.67	16
31	ATL	76.92	16
32	NYG	82.35	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

JAX · 25.00

League laggard

NYG · 82.35

League average

55.71

Spread (max − min)

57.35

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	JAX	25.00	-30.71	100%
2	NE	37.50	-18.21	96.8%
3	WAS	38.46	-17.25	93.5%
4	DAL	42.86	-12.85	90.3%
5	MIA	42.86	-12.85	87.1%
6	SEA	46.15	-9.56	83.9%
7	IND	46.67	-9.04	80.6%
8	MIN	47.37	-8.34	77.4%
9	NO	48.28	-7.43	74.2%
10	BAL	50.00	-5.71	71%
11	TB	50.00	-5.71	67.7%
12	PIT	53.85	-1.86	64.5%
13	LAC	55.00	-0.71	61.3%
14	TEN	55.00	-0.71	58.1%
15	DET	56.25	0.54	54.8%
16	CHI	57.14	1.43	51.6%
17	PHI	57.89	2.18	48.4%
18	CAR	58.82	3.11	45.2%
19	SF	58.82	3.11	41.9%
20	BUF	60.00	4.29	38.7%
21	DEN	60.00	4.29	35.5%
22	HOU	60.00	4.29	32.3%
23	LAR	60.00	4.29	29%
24	ARI	61.54	5.83	25.8%
25	NYJ	64.29	8.58	22.6%
26	CIN	64.71	9.00	19.4%
27	CLE	65.00	9.29	16.1%
28	GB	66.67	10.96	12.9%
29	KC	66.67	10.96	9.7%
30	LV	66.67	10.96	6.5%
31	ATL	76.92	21.21	3.2%
32	NYG	82.35	26.64	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.