What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Vikings led at 37.14; the league average was 57.59.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

MIN · 37.14

League average

57.59

Best to worst

39.78

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	MIN	37.14	17
2	DET	41.38	17
3	BAL	42.86	17
4	CLE	44.44	17
5	CHI	47.37	17
6	MIA	50.00	17
7	SEA	50.00	17
8	NO	51.85	17
9	KC	52.17	17
10	IND	52.38	17
11	NE	52.38	17
12	LAR	52.94	17
13	BUF	53.13	17
14	DEN	53.33	17
15	ATL	53.85	17
16	NYG	57.14	17
17	ARI	58.33	17
18	JAX	58.33	17
19	CIN	59.26	17
20	CAR	60.00	17
21	GB	60.00	17
22	LAC	62.07	17
23	PHI	63.33	17
24	HOU	65.38	17
25	SF	65.38	17
26	TB	65.52	17
27	WAS	66.67	17
28	DAL	68.00	17
29	PIT	68.18	17
30	NYJ	76.19	17
31	LV	76.92	17
32	TEN	76.92	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 37.14

League laggard

LV · 76.92

League average

57.59

Spread (max − min)

39.78

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	37.14	-20.45	100%
2	DET	41.38	-16.21	96.8%
3	BAL	42.86	-14.73	93.5%
4	CLE	44.44	-13.15	90.3%
5	CHI	47.37	-10.22	87.1%
6	MIA	50.00	-7.59	83.9%
7	SEA	50.00	-7.59	80.6%
8	NO	51.85	-5.74	77.4%
9	KC	52.17	-5.42	74.2%
10	IND	52.38	-5.21	71%
11	NE	52.38	-5.21	67.7%
12	LAR	52.94	-4.65	64.5%
13	BUF	53.13	-4.46	61.3%
14	DEN	53.33	-4.26	58.1%
15	ATL	53.85	-3.74	54.8%
16	NYG	57.14	-0.45	51.6%
17	ARI	58.33	0.74	48.4%
18	JAX	58.33	0.74	45.2%
19	CIN	59.26	1.67	41.9%
20	CAR	60.00	2.41	38.7%
21	GB	60.00	2.41	35.5%
22	LAC	62.07	4.48	32.3%
23	PHI	63.33	5.74	29%
24	HOU	65.38	7.79	25.8%
25	SF	65.38	7.79	22.6%
26	TB	65.52	7.93	19.4%
27	WAS	66.67	9.08	16.1%
28	DAL	68.00	10.41	12.9%
29	PIT	68.18	10.59	9.7%
30	NYJ	76.19	18.60	6.5%
31	LV	76.92	19.33	3.2%
32	TEN	76.92	19.33	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2024 vs 2023

Vikings lead at 37.14 — they ranked #32 last year. Titans are last at 76.92 — #26 last year.

The league average is 57.59, up 5.52 from 52.07 last year.

Biggest riser: Vikings, #32 → #1. Biggest faller: Jets, #4 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 39.78; 22 teams are within 9.89 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYJ · +32.44

Biggest faller

MIN · −34.86

Most consistent

LAR · −0.39

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▲ 5.52

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	NYJ	76.19	43.75	+32.44
2	PIT	68.18	44.44	+23.74
3	LV	76.92	53.85	+23.08
4	TEN	76.92	57.14	+19.78
5	TB	65.52	48.00	+17.52
6	DAL	68.00	51.35	+16.65
7	SF	65.38	51.85	+13.53
8	GB	60.00	46.67	+13.33
9	CIN	59.26	46.67	+12.59
10	HOU	65.38	55.17	+10.21
11	NO	51.85	42.31	+9.54
12	ARI	58.33	50.00	+8.33
13	PHI	63.33	55.88	+7.45
14	JAX	58.33	51.22	+7.11
15	ATL	53.85	47.83	+6.02
16	KC	52.17	46.43	+5.75
17	DEN	53.33	48.48	+4.85
18	WAS	66.67	61.90	+4.76
19	NYG	57.14	52.63	+4.51
20	CLE	44.44	40.00	+4.44
21	MIA	50.00	46.67	+3.33
22	LAC	62.07	59.38	+2.69
23	BAL	42.86	40.63	+2.23
24	CHI	47.37	45.45	+1.91
25	BUF	53.13	52.63	+0.49
26	LAR	52.94	53.33	−0.39
27	SEA	50.00	52.00	−2.00
28	NE	52.38	55.56	−3.17
29	CAR	60.00	70.00	−10.00
30	IND	52.38	65.38	−13.00
31	DET	41.38	57.69	−16.31
32	MIN	37.14	72.00	−34.86

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00), 2021 Chargers (31.82), 2022 Jaguars (32.26), 2023 Browns (40.00), 2024 Vikings (37.14).

Jaguars have led this stat 2 of 7 seasons.

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.