What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Cardinals led at 21.43; the league average was 48.49.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

ARI · 21.43

League average

48.49

Best to worst

47.80

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	ARI	21.43	16
2	NYJ	27.27	16
3	SF	32.00	16
4	BAL	33.33	16
5	CLE	35.29	16
6	NE	36.36	16
7	BUF	40.00	16
8	TEN	40.00	16
9	HOU	41.18	16
10	IND	42.11	16
11	NO	44.00	16
12	GB	44.44	16
13	DAL	45.45	16
14	JAX	45.45	16
15	DEN	47.37	16
16	PIT	47.62	16
17	TB	48.15	16
18	CIN	50.00	16
19	DET	50.00	16
20	KC	51.61	16
21	MIN	55.17	16
22	CHI	56.52	16
23	NYG	57.14	16
24	LAR	58.33	16
25	SEA	58.33	16
26	ATL	60.00	16
27	PHI	61.11	16
28	LAC	61.54	16
29	MIA	61.54	16
30	WAS	63.16	16
31	CAR	66.67	16
32	LV	69.23	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

ARI · 21.43

League laggard

LV · 69.23

League average

48.49

Spread (max − min)

47.80

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	ARI	21.43	-27.07	100%
2	NYJ	27.27	-21.22	96.8%
3	SF	32.00	-16.49	93.5%
4	BAL	33.33	-15.16	90.3%
5	CLE	35.29	-13.20	87.1%
6	NE	36.36	-12.13	83.9%
7	BUF	40.00	-8.49	80.6%
8	TEN	40.00	-8.49	77.4%
9	HOU	41.18	-7.32	74.2%
10	IND	42.11	-6.39	71%
11	NO	44.00	-4.49	67.7%
12	GB	44.44	-4.05	64.5%
13	DAL	45.45	-3.04	61.3%
14	JAX	45.45	-3.04	58.1%
15	DEN	47.37	-1.13	54.8%
16	PIT	47.62	-0.88	51.6%
17	TB	48.15	-0.35	48.4%
18	CIN	50.00	1.51	45.2%
19	DET	50.00	1.51	41.9%
20	KC	51.61	3.12	38.7%
21	MIN	55.17	6.68	35.5%
22	CHI	56.52	8.03	32.3%
23	NYG	57.14	8.65	29%
24	LAR	58.33	9.84	25.8%
25	SEA	58.33	9.84	22.6%
26	ATL	60.00	11.51	19.4%
27	PHI	61.11	12.62	16.1%
28	LAC	61.54	13.04	12.9%
29	MIA	61.54	13.04	9.7%
30	WAS	63.16	14.66	6.5%
31	CAR	66.67	18.17	3.2%
32	LV	69.23	20.74	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2019 vs 2018

Cardinals lead at 21.43 — they ranked #24 last year. Raiders are last at 69.23 — #30 last year.

The league average is 48.49, down 7.22 from 55.71 last year.

Biggest riser: Cardinals, #24 → #1. Biggest faller: Commanders, #3 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 47.80; 20 teams are within 11.59 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +24.70

Biggest faller

ARI · −40.11

Most consistent

CHI · −0.62

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -7.22

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	WAS	63.16	38.46	+24.70
2	JAX	45.45	25.00	+20.45
3	MIA	61.54	42.86	+18.68
4	SEA	58.33	46.15	+12.18
5	CAR	66.67	58.82	+7.84
6	MIN	55.17	47.37	+7.80
7	LAC	61.54	55.00	+6.54
8	PHI	61.11	57.89	+3.22
9	DAL	45.45	42.86	+2.60
10	LV	69.23	66.67	+2.56
11	CHI	56.52	57.14	−0.62
12	NE	36.36	37.50	−1.14
13	LAR	58.33	60.00	−1.67
14	TB	48.15	50.00	−1.85
15	NO	44.00	48.28	−4.28
16	IND	42.11	46.67	−4.56
17	PIT	47.62	53.85	−6.23
18	DET	50.00	56.25	−6.25
19	DEN	47.37	60.00	−12.63
20	CIN	50.00	64.71	−14.71
21	TEN	40.00	55.00	−15.00
22	KC	51.61	66.67	−15.05
23	BAL	33.33	50.00	−16.67
24	ATL	60.00	76.92	−16.92
25	HOU	41.18	60.00	−18.82
26	BUF	40.00	60.00	−20.00
27	GB	44.44	66.67	−22.22
28	NYG	57.14	82.35	−25.21
29	SF	32.00	58.82	−26.82
30	CLE	35.29	65.00	−29.71
31	NYJ	27.27	64.29	−37.01
32	ARI	21.43	61.54	−40.11

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 44.75

Multi-year laggard

TEN · 71.17

Biggest improver

CLE · −10.52/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +7.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	44.75	−10.52	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
2	CHI	47.51	−2.24	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
3	NO	47.57	+0.72	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—
4	CIN	47.59	−1.85	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
5	ATL	49.71	+2.39	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
6	DAL	49.72	−4.37	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
7	JAX	49.73	−4.42	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
8	NE	50.32	−0.74	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
9	KC	50.37	−4.89	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
10	BAL	51.27	−0.60	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
11	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
12	DEN	52.49	+1.06	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
13	GB	52.62	−0.69	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
14	ARI	52.81	−1.39	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
15	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
16	NYG	53.36	−6.28	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
17	NYJ	53.72	+1.54	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
18	SF	53.76	+0.65	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
19	PHI	53.82	+1.86	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
20	MIN	53.92	−1.93	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
21	SEA	54.14	+7.18	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
22	TB	55.71	+1.17	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
23	MIA	55.77	+2.99	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
24	LAC	55.99	+3.66	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
25	HOU	56.21	−0.98	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
26	PIT	56.97	+6.59	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
27	CAR	57.10	−0.65	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
28	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
29	BUF	58.54	+3.56	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
30	DET	61.88	+2.42	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
31	LV	65.08	−3.21	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
32	TEN	71.17	+5.86	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	0.00
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	0.00
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	0.00
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	20.00
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	37.50
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	37.50
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	40.00
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	40.00
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	44.44
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	44.44
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	44.44
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	50.00
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	50.00
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	50.00
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	50.00
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	54.55
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	55.56
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	57.14
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	60.00
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	66.67
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	66.67
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	66.67
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	71.43
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	80.00
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	87.50
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	88.89
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	100.00
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	100.00
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	—

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

The league average has fallen from 55.71 in 2018 to 48.49 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.