What Fourth down pct (allowed) is

Fourth-down conversion rate allowed: fourth downs opponents converted divided by fourth downs they attempted against this defense, as a percentage. Small samples, so a few plays move it.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Chargers led at 31.82; the league average was 53.75.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

LAC · 31.82

League average

53.75

Best to worst

40.60

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAC	31.82	17
2	CIN	38.89	17
3	SEA	41.94	17
4	DEN	42.31	17
5	NO	42.86	17
6	SF	44.00	17
7	GB	45.45	17
8	TB	46.43	17
9	ARI	46.67	17
10	BUF	47.06	17
11	ATL	50.00	17
12	CHI	50.00	17
13	MIN	50.00	17
14	PHI	51.72	17
15	LAR	53.13	17
16	PIT	54.17	17
17	NE	56.25	17
18	CAR	57.14	17
19	IND	57.14	17
20	WAS	57.14	17
21	HOU	57.89	17
22	TEN	58.33	17
23	BAL	61.11	17
24	MIA	61.11	17
25	KC	61.29	17
26	DAL	61.54	17
27	NYJ	61.90	17
28	CLE	64.00	17
29	DET	64.29	17
30	NYG	65.22	17
31	JAX	66.67	17
32	LV	72.41	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 31.82

League laggard

LV · 72.41

League average

53.75

Spread (max − min)

40.60

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAC	31.82	-21.93	100%
2	CIN	38.89	-14.86	96.8%
3	SEA	41.94	-11.81	93.5%
4	DEN	42.31	-11.44	90.3%
5	NO	42.86	-10.89	87.1%
6	SF	44.00	-9.75	83.9%
7	GB	45.45	-8.29	80.6%
8	TB	46.43	-7.32	77.4%
9	ARI	46.67	-7.08	74.2%
10	BUF	47.06	-6.69	71%
11	ATL	50.00	-3.75	67.7%
12	CHI	50.00	-3.75	64.5%
13	MIN	50.00	-3.75	61.3%
14	PHI	51.72	-2.02	58.1%
15	LAR	53.13	-0.62	54.8%
16	PIT	54.17	0.42	51.6%
17	NE	56.25	2.50	48.4%
18	CAR	57.14	3.40	45.2%
19	IND	57.14	3.40	41.9%
20	WAS	57.14	3.40	38.7%
21	HOU	57.89	4.15	35.5%
22	TEN	58.33	4.59	32.3%
23	BAL	61.11	7.36	29%
24	MIA	61.11	7.36	25.8%
25	KC	61.29	7.54	22.6%
26	DAL	61.54	7.79	19.4%
27	NYJ	61.90	8.16	16.1%
28	CLE	64.00	10.25	12.9%
29	DET	64.29	10.54	9.7%
30	NYG	65.22	11.47	6.5%
31	JAX	66.67	12.92	3.2%
32	LV	72.41	18.67	0%

Does Fourth down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 833–745–37 ATS (52.8%) across 2020–2025, #142 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2022 (135–129, 51.1%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	135–129–7	51.1%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	139–124–9	52.9%
2025	272	139–130–3	51.7%

Fourth down pct (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Chargers lead at 31.82 — they ranked #29 last year. Raiders are last at 72.41 — #32 last year.

The league average is 53.75, down 1.66 from 55.41 last year.

Biggest riser: Chargers, #29 → #1. Biggest faller: Jets, #4 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 40.60; 21 teams are within 9.16 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PIT · +29.17

Biggest faller

LAC · −34.85

Most consistent

JAX · 0.00

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.66

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	PIT	54.17	25.00	+29.17
2	NYJ	61.90	41.67	+20.24
3	WAS	57.14	37.50	+19.64
4	BAL	61.11	45.71	+15.40
5	MIA	61.11	46.15	+14.96
6	IND	57.14	42.86	+14.29
7	DAL	61.54	47.62	+13.92
8	PHI	51.72	41.18	+10.55
9	LAR	53.13	42.86	+10.27
10	ATL	50.00	43.48	+6.52
11	HOU	57.89	52.38	+5.51
12	NYG	65.22	61.11	+4.11
13	DET	64.29	61.11	+3.17
14	TEN	58.33	57.69	+0.64
15	JAX	66.67	66.67	0.00
16	NE	56.25	56.25	0.00
17	SEA	41.94	43.48	−1.54
18	CAR	57.14	60.00	−2.86
19	KC	61.29	65.00	−3.71
20	DEN	42.31	50.00	−7.69
21	LV	72.41	82.35	−9.94
22	NO	42.86	53.33	−10.48
23	BUF	47.06	57.89	−10.84
24	CHI	50.00	61.90	−11.90
25	TB	46.43	58.33	−11.90
26	GB	45.45	58.33	−12.88
27	CLE	64.00	81.48	−17.48
28	ARI	46.67	66.67	−20.00
29	MIN	50.00	70.83	−20.83
30	SF	44.00	65.00	−21.00
31	CIN	38.89	62.50	−23.61
32	LAC	31.82	66.67	−34.85

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CHI · 44.97

Multi-year laggard

LV · 66.10

Biggest improver

CLE · −7.46/yr

Biggest decliner

SEA · +6.11/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CHI	44.97	−4.14	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	22.22
2	CIN	47.90	−1.61	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	22.22
3	NO	47.91	+0.71	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	50.00
4	JAX	48.66	−5.22	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	30.00
5	CLE	48.83	−7.46	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	28.57
6	NE	49.68	−1.21	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	55.56
7	ATL	50.49	+2.97	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	60.00
8	LAR	51.48	−1.51	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
9	KC	51.64	−3.94	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	53.33
10	ARI	51.79	−2.16	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	42.86
11	DEN	52.02	+0.70	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	53.85
12	GB	52.29	−0.94	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	42.11
13	SEA	52.71	+6.11	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	90.00
14	TB	52.85	−0.98	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	46.67
15	SF	52.97	+0.05	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	50.00
16	BAL	53.31	+0.93	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	64.29
17	IND	53.33	+0.52	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
18	PHI	54.50	+2.38	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	71.43
19	MIN	54.70	−1.35	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	45.45
20	LAC	54.77	+2.74	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	71.43
21	NYJ	55.51	+2.88	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	50.00
22	PIT	55.56	+5.53	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	61.54
23	CAR	55.94	−1.51	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	36.36
24	DAL	56.07	+0.39	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	44.44
25	HOU	57.00	−0.38	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	55.56
26	BUF	57.27	+2.61	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	80.00
27	WAS	58.39	+5.07	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
28	MIA	58.49	+5.03	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	85.71
29	DET	60.37	+1.28	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	76.92
30	NYG	60.51	−0.92	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	50.00
31	TEN	65.81	+1.84	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	62.50
32	LV	66.10	−2.45	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	57.14

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAC	66.67	31.82	40.00	59.38	62.07	52.00	71.43
CIN	62.50	38.89	39.13	46.67	59.26	66.67	22.22
SEA	43.48	41.94	39.29	52.00	50.00	52.27	90.00
DEN	50.00	42.31	64.29	48.48	53.33	51.85	53.85
NO	53.33	42.86	42.11	42.31	51.85	52.94	50.00
SF	65.00	44.00	40.00	51.85	65.38	54.55	50.00
GB	58.33	45.45	57.89	46.67	60.00	55.56	42.11
TB	58.33	46.43	58.33	48.00	65.52	46.67	46.67
ARI	66.67	46.67	50.00	50.00	58.33	48.00	42.86
BUF	57.89	47.06	57.58	52.63	53.13	52.63	80.00
ATL	43.48	50.00	38.89	47.83	53.85	59.38	60.00
CHI	61.90	50.00	40.00	45.45	47.37	47.83	22.22
MIN	70.83	50.00	37.93	72.00	37.14	69.57	45.45
PHI	41.18	51.72	60.00	55.88	63.33	37.93	71.43
LAR	42.86	53.13	70.00	53.33	52.94	54.76	33.33
PIT	25.00	54.17	61.90	44.44	68.18	73.68	61.54
NE	56.25	56.25	38.46	55.56	52.38	33.33	55.56
CAR	60.00	57.14	44.44	70.00	60.00	63.64	36.36
IND	42.86	57.14	52.00	65.38	52.38	53.57	50.00
WAS	37.50	57.14	48.00	61.90	66.67	62.50	75.00
HOU	52.38	57.89	65.00	55.17	65.38	47.62	55.56
TEN	57.69	58.33	73.08	57.14	76.92	75.00	62.50
BAL	45.71	61.11	62.50	40.63	42.86	56.10	64.29
MIA	46.15	61.11	48.39	46.67	50.00	71.43	85.71
KC	65.00	61.29	57.14	46.43	52.17	26.09	53.33
DAL	47.62	61.54	54.55	51.35	68.00	65.00	44.44
NYJ	41.67	61.90	42.31	43.75	76.19	72.73	50.00
CLE	81.48	64.00	44.44	40.00	44.44	38.89	28.57
DET	61.11	64.29	55.56	57.69	41.38	65.63	76.92
NYG	61.11	65.22	64.71	52.63	57.14	72.73	50.00
JAX	66.67	66.67	32.26	51.22	58.33	35.48	30.00
LV	82.35	72.41	55.00	53.85	76.92	65.00	57.14

Fourth down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (25.00), 2019 Cardinals (21.43), 2020 Steelers (25.00), 2021 Chargers (31.82).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 21.43; the worst Giants 2018 at 82.35.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.