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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

156.35

Def EXP

10.93

Net EXP

167.28

Record

13-3

Pythag 12.8 (+0.2)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+9.98

SoS Rank

#20

pts: −0.6 (#23)

#20

Pts / Game

28.4

Home 31.8 · Road 25.1

Net Pts / G

+10.6

Pts Allowed / G

17.9

Home 18.4 · Road 17.4

Yds / Play

6.10

Yds/Play Allowed

5.10

#10

3rd Down %

50.3%

3rd Down % Allowed

37.5%

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	455	370.63	+84.38	#4
Total Yards	6361	5,760.38	+600.63	#4
Yds / Play	6.10	5.40	+0.70	#2
1st Downs	367	333.31	+33.69	#5
Turnovers	27	22.19	+4.81	#30
Fumbles Lost	13	9.13	+3.88	#31
EXP Pts	156.35	46.32	+110.03	#4

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	286	370.63	-84.63	#2
Total Yards	5106	5,760.38	-654.38	#1
Yds / Play	5.10	5.40	-0.30	#10
1st Downs	313	333.31	-20.31	#5
Turnovers	27	22.19	+4.81	#4
Fumbles Lost	10	9.13	+0.88	#10
EXP Pts	10.93	-46.32	+57.25	#6

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 455 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	574	564.66	+9.34	#14
Pass Cmp	361	362.66	-1.66	#14
Cmp %	62.90	64.03	-1.13	#21
Pass Yds	4129	3,701.19	+427.81	#8
Yds / Att	7.20	6.56	+0.64	#6
Yds / Cmp	11.40	10.24	+1.16	#4
Adj Y/A	7.30	6.33	+0.97	#6
Adj NY/A	6.90	5.91	+0.99	#6
Pass TD	35	23.44	+11.56	#2
TD %	6.10	4.17	+1.93	#2
Pass Int	14	13.06	+0.94	#21
Int %	2.40	2.35	+0.05	#17
Sack %	5.40	6.83	-1.43	#8
Pass Rating	94.60	86.83	+7.77	#7
EXP Pts Pass	132.37	47.33	+85.04	#4

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	570	564.66	+5.34	#13
Pass Cmp	362	362.66	-0.66	#16
Cmp %	63.50	64.17	-0.67	#14
Pass Yds	3433	3,701.19	-268.19	#9
Yds / Att	6.50	7.04	-0.54	#5
Yds / Cmp	10.30	10.97	-0.67	#7
Adj Y/A	5.90	6.83	-0.93	#4
Adj NY/A	5.10	5.93	-0.83	#4
Pass TD	21	23.44	-2.44	#10
TD %	3.70	4.16	-0.46	#10
Pass Int	17	13.06	+3.94	#4
Int %	3	2.34	+0.66	#7
Sack %	6.60	6.68	-0.08	#17
Pass Rating	82.10	89.01	-6.91	#4
EXP Pts Pass	-7.86	-47.33	+39.47	#6

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2022. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

87.0%

#12 of 32

PAT%

96.0%

#13 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

3 / 3

#2 of 32

Return Yards

1,184

#7 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

56 yd

FG %

87.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	4	0	100.0%
30-39	11	1	91.7%
40-49	10	0	100.0%
50-59	2	1	66.7%
60+	0	0	—

Made FG distances

20–2921252829(4)

30–393034353637383838393939(11)

40–4941424245454748494949(10)

50–595156(2)

Missed FG distances

30–3938(1)

50–5955(1)

Blocked FG distances

30–3938(1)

40–4949(1)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

96.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

GWFG distances

20–292125(2)

40–4945(1)

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

276

Punt avg

9.5

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

908

Kickoff avg

25.2

Total return yds

1184

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2146

Gross avg

46.7

Net yards

1895

Net avg

40.3

Long

67 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

34.8%

Touchbacks

TB %

10.9%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

145

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2022.

#15 of 32

#2 of 32

#2 of 32

#22 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2022. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+95.9

#4 of 32

Rush EPA

+12.4

#7 of 32

Recv EPA

+152.2

#5 of 32

CPOE

+0.50

#14 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2022 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

5,286

#3 of 32

Pass YAC

1,593

#26 of 32

Recv Air Yds

5,286

#3 of 32

Recv YAC

1,593

#26 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2022. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

#16 of 32

Penalty Yds

709

#10 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#19 of 32

Yds / Game

44.3

#13 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2022 vs 2021.


Penalties Yds	980	709	-271
Kick Ret Yds	790	908	118
Punt Ret Yds Opp	96	145	49

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2018 through 2022. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 18, 2022

W vs NE · 35–23

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2022.

Cmp %

62.9%

#21

Pass Yds/G

258.1

Pass Rating

94.6

Pass TD

Pass Int

#21

Sack Rate

5.4%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 16 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	16	13-3	8-7-1	53.3%	6-10	37.5%	+10.6	+3.3	35	+24.0
Home	8	7-1	4-4	50.0%	5-3	62.5%	+13.4	+4.2	35	+24.0
Away	8	6-2	4-3-1	57.1%	1-7	12.5%	+7.8	+2.4	22	+20.0
As favorite	16	13-3	8-7-1	53.3%	6-10	37.5%	+10.6	+3.3	35	+24.0
Division games	6	4-2	2-4	33.3%	2-4	33.3%	+5.3	-1.9	14	+10.5
Non-division	10	9-1	6-3-1	66.7%	4-6	40.0%	+13.7	+6.4	35	+24.0
Pick-em (≤3)	3	3-0	2-0-1	—	0-3	—	+9.3	+7.2	21	+20.0
Small favorite (3-7)	3	1-2	1-2	—	1-2	—	+3.0	-1.7	14	+10.5
Large favorite (7+)	10	9-1	5-5	50.0%	5-5	50.0%	+13.2	+3.6	35	+24.0

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2022. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	1-1	0-2	1-1	+0.5	-5.0
NYJ	New York Jets	2	1-1	0-2	0-2	+2.5	-8.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	+13.0	+7.2
LAR	Los Angeles Rams	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+21.0	+20.0
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+34.0	+24.0
BAL	Baltimore Ravens	1	1-0	0-0-1	0-1	+3.0	+0.0
PIT	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+35.0	+21.0
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+4.0	+1.5
GB	Green Bay Packers	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+10.0	-0.5
MIN	Minnesota Vikings	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-3.0	-9.5
CLE	Cleveland Browns	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+8.0	+0.5
DET	Detroit Lions	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+3.0	-7.0
CHI	Chicago Bears	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+22.0	+14.0

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	3	2-1	2-1	1-2	67%
Oct	4	4-0	2-1-1	0-4	67%
Nov	4	2-2	1-3	2-2	25%
Dec	4	4-0	2-2	2-2	50%
Jan	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	3	3-0	2-1	0-3	67%
Sat	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	50%
Sun	10	7-3	4-5-1	3-7	44%
Mon	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	8	6-2	4-3-1	1-7	57%
Second half (W10+)	8	7-1	4-4	5-3	50%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	4	3-1	2-1-1	1-3	67%
Turf	12	10-2	6-6	5-7	50%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	4-2	2-4	2-4	33%
Same conference	5	5-0	4-0-1	2-3	100%
Inter-conference	5	4-1	2-3	2-3	40%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	6	5-1	3-3	4-2	50%
Mild (60-74°F)	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	0%
Indoor	9	8-1	5-3-1	2-7	62%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	2	2-0	1-1	1-1	50%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	3	2-1	1-2	2-1	33%
Windy (≥15 mph)	2	1-1	1-1	1-1	50%
Indoor	9	8-1	5-3-1	2-7	62%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	7
ATS	W	2
O/U	O	3

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	7
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	2
Longest ATS no-cover	3
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	6

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	12	10-2	6-6	4-8	50%
After a loss	3	2-1	1-1-1	2-1	50%
On 2+ winning streak	9	7-2	4-5	3-6	44%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
vs winning opp.	8	5-3	2-5-1	2-6	29%
vs losing opp.	6	6-0	4-2	3-3	67%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	13	10-3	6-6-1	5-8	50%
Dome	3	3-0	2-1	1-2	67%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	7-1	4-4	5-3	50%
Domestic road	8	6-2	4-3-1	1-7	57%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	7-1	4-4	5-3	50%
Short (<500)	5	4-1	2-2-1	1-4	50%
Medium (500-1500)	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	50%
Long (1500+)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	0%
Standard (5-7d)	10	7-3	5-4-1	4-6	56%
Long week (8-10d)	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	0%
Bye+ (11+d)	3	3-0	2-1	2-1	67%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-13 G

OctATS 2-1-14 G

NovATS 1-34 G

DecATS 2-24 G

JanATS 1-01 G

By day of week

ThuATS 2-13 G

SatATS 1-12 G

SunATS 4-5-110 G

MonATS 1-01 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 4-3-18 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 4-48 G

By surface

GrassATS 2-1-14 G

TurfATS 6-612 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 2-46 G

Same conferenceATS 4-0-15 G

Inter-conferenceATS 2-35 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 6-6-113 G

DomeATS 2-13 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 4-48 G

Domestic roadATS 4-3-18 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 4-48 G

Short (<500)ATS 2-2-15 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 1-12 G

Long (1500+)ATS 1-01 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 0-11 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 5-4-110 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 0-11 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 2-13 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 1-1-13 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 2-57 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 2-13 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 3-03 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 8.7 ptsBias +3.3 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	13-3	0.489 #20	28.4	17.9	156.35	10.93
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	9-8	0.539 #3	23.4	23.5	94.62	-68.82
New England Patriots (NE)	8-9	0.505 #18	21.4	20.4	-25.81	55.35
New York Jets (NYJ)	7-10	0.541 #2	17.4	18.6	-47.59	25.96

Insights

A look at how the 2022 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: offensive yards before contact per carry (1st of 32), offensive epa per play (2nd of 32), and offensive rush success rate (3rd of 32). Weaknesses: defensive ryoe per attempt allowed (30th of 32), defensive stuffed rate forced (29th of 32), and offensive avg yards after catch (26th of 32).


Drives	171	184.56	-13.56	#31
Plays / Drive	6.20	5.96	+0.24	#10
Yds / Drive	37.10	31.23	+5.88	#2
Points / Drive	2.52	1.93	+0.59	#2
Score %	45	36.36	+8.64	#2
Turnover %	15.20	11.34	+3.86	#31


Rush Att	430	461.56	-31.56	#20
Rush Yds	2232	2,059.19	+172.81	#9
Rush Y/A	5.20	4.43	+0.77	#3
Rush TD	15	15.22	-0.22	#16
EXP Pts Rush	27.86	9.71	+18.15	#8


3rd Down Att	193	218.03	-25.03	#31
3rd Down Made	97	85.94	+11.06	#5
4th Down Att	13	23	-10	#28
4th Down Made	7	11.66	-4.66	#28
Red Zone Att	58	52.78	+5.22	#8
Red Zone Scores	35	29.59	+5.41	#7


Drives	168	184.56	-16.56	#1
Plays / Drive	6.10	5.97	+0.13	#26
Yds / Drive	30.30	31.20	-0.90	#13
Points / Drive	1.67	1.93	-0.26	#5
Score %	31	36.28	-5.28	#3
Turnover %	14.30	11.38	+2.92	#5


Rush Att	387	461.56	-74.56	#1
Rush Yds	1673	2,059.19	-386.19	#4
Rush Y/A	4.30	4.44	-0.14	#14
Rush TD	10	15.22	-5.22	#7
EXP Pts Rush	5.47	-9.71	+15.18	#13


2018	-96.9	17.0	-80.0
2019	7.7	51.5	+59.2
2020	213.3	-88.7	+124.7
2021	151.1	78.3	+229.4
2022	156.4	10.9	+167.3

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East