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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

213.32

Def EXP

-88.65

#14

Net EXP

124.67

Record

13-3

Pythag 11.3 (+1.7)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+7.49

SoS Rank

#12

pts: −0.4 (#19)

#12

Pts / Game

31.3

Home 32.0 · Road 30.6

Net Pts / G

+7.9

Pts Allowed / G

23.4

Home 23.5 · Road 23.4

#16

Yds / Play

6.10

Yds/Play Allowed

5.50

#17

3rd Down %

49.7%

3rd Down % Allowed

39.8%

#13

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	501	396.63	+104.38	#2
Total Yards	6343	5,744.53	+598.47	#2
Yds / Play	6.10	5.58	+0.52	#6
1st Downs	397	347.06	+49.94	#1
Turnovers	22	20.78	+1.22	#22
Fumbles Lost	11	8.44	+2.56	#28
EXP Pts	213.32	98.89	+114.43	#4

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	375	396.63	-21.63	#16
Total Yards	5640	5,744.53	-104.53	#14
Yds / Play	5.50	5.57	-0.07	#17
1st Downs	351	347.06	+3.94	#17
Turnovers	26	20.78	+5.22	#3
Fumbles Lost	11	8.44	+2.56	#4
EXP Pts	-88.65	-98.89	+10.24	#14

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 501 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	596	563.06	+32.94	#11
Pass Cmp	410	367.38	+42.63	#5
Cmp %	68.80	65.23	+3.57	#5
Pass Yds	4620	3,842.41	+777.59	#3
Yds / Att	7.80	6.84	+0.96	#2
Yds / Cmp	11.30	10.47	+0.83	#6
Adj Y/A	8.30	6.81	+1.49	#4
Adj NY/A	7.90	6.42	+1.48	#4
Pass TD	40	27.22	+12.78	#3
TD %	6.70	4.85	+1.85	#6
Pass Int	11	12.34	-1.34	#13
Int %	1.80	2.20	-0.40	#10
Sack %	4.30	5.94	-1.64	#7
Pass Rating	106.40	91.90	+14.50	#3
EXP Pts Pass	226.09	95.98	+130.11	#2

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	573	563.06	+9.94	#11
Pass Cmp	369	367.38	+1.63	#18
Cmp %	64.40	65.19	-0.79	#16
Pass Yds	3726	3,842.41	-116.41	#13
Yds / Att	6.90	7.24	-0.34	#9
Yds / Cmp	10.70	11.11	-0.41	#9
Adj Y/A	6.50	7.23	-0.73	#7
Adj NY/A	5.70	6.41	-0.71	#6
Pass TD	23	27.22	-4.22	#11
TD %	4	4.84	-0.84	#8
Pass Int	15	12.34	+2.66	#7
Int %	2.60	2.21	+0.39	#9
Sack %	6.20	5.91	+0.29	#14
Pass Rating	86.90	93.56	-6.66	#5
EXP Pts Pass	-57.92	-95.98	+38.06	#8

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2020. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

82.0%

#17 of 32

PAT%

97.0%

#5 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

0 / 0

#14 of 32

Return Yards

1,365

#2 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

58 yd

FG %

82.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	1	0	100.0%
20-29	9	0	100.0%
30-39	6	3	66.7%
40-49	8	1	88.9%
50-59	4	1	80.0%
60+	0	1	0.0%

Made FG distances

Under 2019(1)

20–29222222232727282829(9)

30–39313434373739(6)

40–494043434445464848(8)

50–5953545558(4)

Missed FG distances

30–39343738(3)

40–4945(1)

50–5952(1)

60+61(1)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

97.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

No game-winning field goal attempts this season.

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

370

Punt avg

11.9

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

995

Kickoff avg

27.6

Total return yds

1365

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

2082

Gross avg

50.8

Net yards

1804

Net avg

Long

72 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

43.9%

Touchbacks

TB %

17.1%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

138

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2020.

#14 of 32

#7 of 32

#16 of 32

#7 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2020. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

+177.4

#3 of 32

Rush EPA

-21.1

#20 of 32

Recv EPA

+227.6

#2 of 32

CPOE

+6.10

#4 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2020 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

5,133

#4 of 32

Pass YAC

1,946

#13 of 32

Recv Air Yds

5,133

#4 of 32

Recv YAC

1,946

#13 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2020. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

102

#27 of 32

Penalty Yds

941

#28 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#13 of 32

Yds / Game

58.8

#28 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2020 vs 2019.


Kickoff Yds	4579	6469	1890
All Purpose Yds	6678	8083	1405
Pass Yds	3229	4620	1391

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2018 through 2020. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 17, 2020

W vs MIA · 56–26

BUF covered.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2020.

Cmp %

68.8%

Pass Yds/G

288.8

Pass Rating

106.4

Pass TD

Pass Int

#13

Sack Rate

4.3%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 16 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	16	13-3	11-5	68.8%	10-4-2	71.4%	+7.9	+5.7	30	+33.5
Home	8	7-1	6-2	75.0%	5-3	62.5%	+8.5	+7.7	30	+33.5
Away	8	6-2	5-3	62.5%	5-1-2	83.3%	+7.2	+3.6	29	+23.5
As favorite	11	10-1	7-4	63.6%	6-3-2	66.7%	+7.9	+3.2	29	+23.5
As underdog	5	3-2	4-1	80.0%	4-1	80.0%	+7.8	+11.1	30	+33.5
Division games	6	6-0	3-3	50.0%	4-1-1	80.0%	+13.8	+9.0	30	+33.5
Non-division	10	7-3	8-2	80.0%	6-3-1	66.7%	+4.3	+3.6	29	+23.5
Pick-em (≤3)	7	5-2	6-1	85.7%	5-1-1	83.3%	+1.9	+1.6	11	+13.0
Small favorite (3-7)	5	5-0	3-2	60.0%	4-1	80.0%	+11.0	+5.8	29	+23.5
Large favorite (7+)	2	2-0	1-1	—	0-1-1	—	+18.5	+10.2	29	+22.0
Small underdog (3-7)	2	1-1	1-1	—	1-1	—	+10.5	+15.0	30	+33.5

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2020. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


NYJ	New York Jets	2	2-0	1-1	1-1	+9.0	+1.0
MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	+16.5	+15.5
NE	New England Patriots	2	2-0	1-1	1-0-1	+16.0	+10.5
LAR	Los Angeles Rams	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+3.0	+1.5
LV	Las Vegas Raiders	1	1-0	1-0	0-0-1	+7.0	+4.0
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-26.0	-29.0
KC	Kansas City Chiefs	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-9.0	-3.5
SEA	Seattle Seahawks	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+10.0	+13.0
ARI	Arizona Cardinals	1	0-1	1-0	1-0	-2.0	+1.0
LAC	Los Angeles Chargers	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+10.0	+5.5
SF	San Francisco 49ers	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+10.0	+11.5
PIT	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+11.0	+9.0
DEN	Denver Broncos	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	+29.0	+23.5

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	3	3-0	2-1	3-0	67%
Oct	4	2-2	1-3	1-2-1	25%
Nov	4	3-1	3-1	3-1	75%
Dec	4	4-0	4-0	2-1-1	100%
Jan	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sat	1	1-0	1-0	1-0	100%
Sun	11	10-1	8-3	7-3-1	73%
Mon	3	2-1	2-1	1-1-1	67%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	9	7-2	4-5	6-2-1	44%
Second half (W10+)	7	6-1	7-0	4-2-1	100%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	7	5-2	5-2	5-0-2	71%
Turf	9	8-1	6-3	5-4	67%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	6-0	3-3	4-1-1	50%
Same conference	6	4-2	4-2	2-3-1	67%
Inter-conference	4	3-1	4-0	4-0	100%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	2	2-0	2-0	1-1	100%
Cool (40-59°F)	6	5-1	3-3	2-3-1	50%
Mild (60-74°F)	3	2-1	2-1	3-0	67%
Warm (75°F+)	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	50%
Indoor	3	2-1	3-0	2-0-1	100%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	4	3-1	3-1	3-0-1	75%
Breezy (5-14 mph)	5	4-1	2-3	1-4	40%
Windy (≥15 mph)	4	4-0	3-1	4-0	75%
Indoor	3	2-1	3-0	2-0-1	100%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	W	6
ATS	W	8
O/U	O	1

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	6
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	8
Longest ATS no-cover	4
Longest O streak	3
Longest U streak	2

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	12	10-2	9-3	9-1-2	75%
After a loss	3	2-1	1-2	0-3	33%
On 2+ winning streak	9	7-2	8-1	6-1-2	89%
On 2+ losing streak	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	0%
vs winning opp.	8	5-3	6-2	5-2-1	75%
vs losing opp.	7	7-0	4-3	4-2-1	57%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	13	11-2	8-5	8-4-1	62%
Dome	1	1-0	1-0	0-0-1	100%
Retractable (closed)	2	1-1	2-0	2-0	100%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	7-1	6-2	5-3	75%
Domestic road	8	6-2	5-3	5-1-2	62%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	7-1	6-2	5-3	75%
Short (<500)	2	2-0	1-1	0-1-1	50%
Medium (500-1500)	3	2-1	1-2	3-0	33%
Long (1500+)	3	2-1	3-0	2-0-1	100%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Standard (5-7d)	11	9-2	7-4	7-3-1	64%
Long week (8-10d)	3	2-1	2-1	2-0-1	67%
Bye+ (11+d)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 2-13 G

OctATS 1-34 G

NovATS 3-14 G

DecATS 4-04 G

JanATS 1-01 G

By day of week

SatATS 1-01 G

SunATS 8-311 G

MonATS 2-13 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 4-59 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 7-07 G

By surface

GrassATS 5-27 G

TurfATS 6-39 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-36 G

Same conferenceATS 4-26 G

Inter-conferenceATS 4-04 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 8-513 G

DomeATS 1-01 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 2-02 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 6-28 G

Domestic roadATS 5-38 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 6-28 G

Short (<500)ATS 1-12 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 1-23 G

Long (1500+)ATS 3-03 G

By rest days

Standard (5-7d)ATS 7-411 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 2-13 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 1-01 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 2-13 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 4-26 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 3-14 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 2-13 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 10.3 ptsBias +5.7 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	13-3	0.512 #12	31.3	23.4	213.32	-88.65
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	10-6	0.467 #25	25.3	21.1	61.96	-36.43
New England Patriots (NE)	7-9	0.527 #11	20.4	22.1	55.88	-113.10
New York Jets (NYJ)	2-14	0.594 #1	15.2	28.6	-59.07	-169.15

Insights

A look at how the 2020 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: offensive avg time to throw (2nd of 32), offensive avg time to throw (2nd of 32), and offensive avg time to pressure (3rd of 32). Weaknesses: defensive avg wr separation allowed (25th of 32), offensive qb pressure rate faced (25th of 32), and offensive qb pressure rate faced (25th of 32).


Drives	170	173.97	-3.97	#22
Plays / Drive	6.30	6.10	+0.20	#7
Yds / Drive	37.30	33.05	+4.25	#4
Points / Drive	2.80	2.21	+0.59	#3
Score %	49.40	39.95	+9.45	#2
Turnover %	11.80	11.38	+0.42	#18


Rush Att	411	431	-20	#17
Rush Yds	1723	1,902.13	-179.13	#20
Rush Y/A	4.20	4.38	-0.18	#19
Rush TD	16	16.63	-0.63	#15
EXP Pts Rush	-5.21	11.61	-16.82	#20


3rd Down Att	187	202.47	-15.47	#28
3rd Down Made	93	84.31	+8.69	#7
4th Down Att	10	20.56	-10.56	#31
4th Down Made	8	11.31	-3.31	#23
Red Zone Att	68	54.69	+13.31	#1
Red Zone Scores	42	33.47	+8.53	#4


Drives	170	173.97	-3.97	#14
Plays / Drive	6.20	6.10	+0.10	#19
Yds / Drive	33.10	33.06	+0.04	#15
Points / Drive	2.22	2.21	+0.01	#18
Score %	39.40	39.94	-0.54	#15
Turnover %	15.30	11.44	+3.86	#2


Rush Att	414	431	-17	#13
Rush Yds	1914	1,902.13	+11.88	#17
Rush Y/A	4.60	4.39	+0.21	#24
Rush TD	21	16.63	+4.38	#27
EXP Pts Rush	-38.09	-11.61	-26.48	#27


2018	-96.9	17.0	-80.0
2019	7.7	51.5	+59.2
2020	213.3	-88.7	+124.7

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East