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Buffalo Bills

AFC East

Team

Off EXP

7.70

#22

Def EXP

51.46

Net EXP

59.16

Record

10-6

Pythag 10.4 (-0.4)

Power Rating

103.4

SRS

+2.60

#11

SoS Rank

#30

pts: −0.8 (#26)

#30

Pts / Game

19.6

Home 17.8 · Road 21.5

#23

Net Pts / G

+3.4

#10

Pts Allowed / G

16.2

Home 16.8 · Road 15.6

Yds / Play

5.20

#21

Yds/Play Allowed

4.80

3rd Down %

35.8%

#24

3rd Down % Allowed

35.8%

Scoring & Efficiency

Percentile rank per metric. Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median (rank 16/32).


Points	314	365	-51	#23
Total Yards	5283	5,565.84	-282.84	#24
Yds / Play	5.20	5.48	-0.28	#21
1st Downs	314	324.03	-10.03	#21
Turnovers	19	22.22	-3.22	#12
Fumbles Lost	7	9.41	-2.41	#9
EXP Pts	7.70	47.34	-39.64	#22

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Outward = better than league. Inner circle = median.


Points	259	365	-106	#2
Total Yards	4772	5,565.84	-793.84	#3
Yds / Play	4.80	5.48	-0.67	#4
1st Downs	295	324.03	-29.03	#6
Turnovers	23	22.22	+0.78	#10
Fumbles Lost	9	9.41	-0.41	#14
EXP Pts	51.46	-47.34	+98.80	#4

Scoring Composition

Where Buffalo Bills's points come from. Total = 314 points scored.

Offense

Drive Averages

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing

Rushing: Y/A × Attempts × Rush TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing

Passing efficiency: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	513	557.91	-44.91	#24
Pass Cmp	299	354.09	-55.09	#29
Cmp %	58.30	63.55	-5.25	#31
Pass Yds	3229	3,759.41	-530.41	#26
Yds / Att	6.30	6.76	-0.46	#21
Yds / Cmp	10.80	10.62	+0.18	#13
Adj Y/A	6.10	6.63	-0.53	#20
Adj NY/A	5.60	6.19	-0.59	#21
Pass TD	21	24.91	-3.91	#24
TD %	4.10	4.52	-0.42	#18
Pass Int	12	12.81	-0.81	#16
Int %	2.30	2.28	+0.02	#18
Sack %	7.20	6.71	+0.49	#23
Pass Rating	80.80	88.74	-7.94	#25
EXP Pts Pass	16.09	69.14	-53.05	#24

Team Conversions

Percentile rank per metric. Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Rushing Defense

Rush defense: Y/A allowed × Attempts faced × Rush TDs allowed (dot size). 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.

Passing Defense

Pass defense: Y/A × Cmp% × Pass TDs allowed (dot size). All axes 0-100 percentile; outward + larger = better.


Pass Att	553	557.91	-4.91	#17
Pass Cmp	348	354.09	-6.09	#16
Cmp %	62.90	63.48	-0.58	#15
Pass Yds	3123	3,759.41	-636.41	#4
Yds / Att	6.20	7.23	-1.03	#3
Yds / Cmp	9.80	11.38	-1.58	#2
Adj Y/A	5.60	7.09	-1.49	#2
Adj NY/A	4.70	6.16	-1.46	#4
Pass TD	15	24.91	-9.91	#2
TD %	2.70	4.47	-1.77	#2
Pass Int	14	12.81	+1.19	#8
Int %	2.50	2.31	+0.19	#10
Sack %	7.40	6.67	+0.73	#9
Pass Rating	78.80	90.35	-11.55	#3
EXP Pts Pass	36.60	-69.14	+105.74	#3

Team Conversions Defense

Percentile rank per metric (defense). Long bars = better than league. Median = 50.

Special Teams

Kicking, returns, and punting summary for BUF 2019. Click Details for full breakdown.

FG%

79.0%

#19 of 32

PAT%

94.0%

#18 of 32

GW FG (made/att)

0 / 0

#14 of 32

Return Yards

1,045

#7 of 32

Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

Long

51 yd

FG %

79.0%

By distance

Range (yd)	Made	Missed	%
0-19	0	0	—
20-29	5	0	100.0%
30-39	7	1	87.5%
40-49	9	1	90.0%
50-59	1	3	25.0%
60+	0	1	0.0%

Made FG distances

20–292123262829(5)

30–3934343536363939(7)

40–49414243434545464748(9)

50–5951(1)

Missed FG distances

30–3934(1)

40–4949(1)

50–59505353(3)

60+62(1)

Point After Touchdown (PAT)

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

PAT %

94.0%

Game-Winning Field Goals

Made

Attempts

Missed

Blocked

No game-winning field goal attempts this season.

Returns

Punt returns

Punt return yds

243

Punt avg

7.6

Kickoff returns

Kickoff return yds

802

Kickoff avg

25.1

Total return yds

1045

Punting P

Punts

Punt yards

3313

Gross avg

41.4

Net yards

3016

Net avg

37.2

Long

67 yd

Inside 20

Inside 20 %

42.5%

Touchbacks

TB %

8.8%

Blocked

Return yds allowed

157

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

Pressure, tackles for loss, and forced turnover summary for BUF 2019.

#17 of 32

#3 of 32

#2 of 32

#8 of 32

EPA & Efficiency

Expected Points Added and CPOE for BUF 2019. Higher = better.

Pass EPA

-19.2

#22 of 32

Rush EPA

-18.1

#8 of 32

Recv EPA

+70.4

#22 of 32

CPOE

-2.71

#26 of 32

Air Yards & YAC

Pass distance breakdown for BUF 2019 — air yards (downfield) vs yards after catch.

Pass Air Yds

4,686

#16 of 32

Pass YAC

1,503

#30 of 32

Recv Air Yds

4,686

#16 of 32

Recv YAC

1,503

#30 of 32

Discipline

Penalty totals and per-game rate for BUF 2019. Lower = better; rank pills are inverted (#1 = least penalized).

Penalties

117

#24 of 32

Penalty Yds

927

#19 of 32

1st Downs Allowed

#16 of 32

Yds / Game

57.9

#19 of 32

Top 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks best in the league.

Top-ranked metrics sorted by rank strength. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's strengths.

Bottom 10 Ranks

Where this team ranks worst in the league.

Worst-ranked metrics sorted by severity. The curve shows cumulative share — where it bends reveals the 80/20 of this team's weaknesses.

Most Improved YoY

Biggest offensive gains 2019 vs 2018.


Kickoff Yds	3958	4579	621
All Purpose Yds	6080	6678	598
Total Yards	4778	5283	505

5-Year Trajectory

BUF Off EXP, Def EXP, and Net EXP from 2018 through 2019. Trending up, down, or holding steady?

Last game — Week 17, 2019

L vs NYJ · 6–13

BUF failed to cover.

Open the week →

Passing Profile

Team-aggregate passing-game stats for BUF 2019.

Cmp %

58.3%

#31

Pass Yds/G

201.8

#26

Pass Rating

80.8

#25

Pass TD

#24

Pass Int

#16

Sack Rate

7.2%

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Each candle = one game. Open = Vegas predicted margin; close = actual margin. Green: team beat the spread. Red: didn't.

Betting Profile

ATS / SU / O/U splits by situation. BUF has 16 graded games this season. Situations with fewer than 5 games show a dash for the percentage to avoid small-sample noise.

W / L / Push composition per situation, each row normalized to 100% of graded games in that bucket.


Overall	16	10-6	9-5-2	64.3%	4-12	25.0%	+3.4	+3.0	17	+17.5
Home	8	4-4	3-5	37.5%	2-6	25.0%	+1.0	-1.8	17	+13.5
Away	8	6-2	6-0-2	100.0%	2-6	25.0%	+5.9	+7.8	17	+17.5
As favorite	7	6-1	4-3	57.1%	3-4	42.9%	+8.4	+1.9	17	+13.5
As underdog	9	4-5	5-2-2	71.4%	1-8	11.1%	-0.4	+3.8	11	+17.5
Division games	6	3-3	3-2-1	60.0%	3-3	50.0%	+1.3	+0.3	17	+10.0
Non-division	10	7-3	6-3-1	66.7%	1-9	10.0%	+4.7	+4.6	17	+17.5
Pick-em (≤3)	6	3-3	3-2-1	60.0%	1-5	16.7%	-1.0	+0.0	14	+13.0
Small favorite (3-7)	2	2-0	1-1	—	0-2	—	+10.5	+6.0	17	+13.5
Large favorite (7+)	3	3-0	2-1	—	2-1	—	+14.0	+2.5	17	+10.0
Small underdog (3-7)	3	2-1	2-1	—	0-3	—	+3.7	+9.2	11	+17.5
Large underdog (7+)	2	0-2	1-0-1	—	1-1	—	-6.5	+0.5	—	+1.0

Head-to-Head

Opponents faced in 2019. Avg MoV = mean margin of victory; Avg Cover = mean margin of cover (positive = team covered).


NYJ	New York Jets	2	1-1	1-1	0-2	-3.0	-1.0
NE	New England Patriots	2	0-2	1-0-1	1-1	-6.5	+0.5
MIA	Miami Dolphins	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	+13.5	+1.5
NYG	New York Giants	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+14.0	+13.0
CIN	Cincinnati Bengals	1	1-0	0-1	0-1	+4.0	-1.5
TEN	Tennessee Titans	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+7.0	+10.5
PHI	Philadelphia Eagles	1	0-1	0-1	1-0	-18.0	-19.0
WAS	Washington Commanders	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+15.0	+4.5
CLE	Cleveland Browns	1	0-1	0-0-1	0-1	-3.0	+0.0
DEN	Denver Broncos	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+17.0	+13.5
DAL	Dallas Cowboys	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+11.0	+17.5
BAL	Baltimore Ravens	1	0-1	0-1	0-1	-7.0	-0.5
PIT	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	+7.0	+8.0

Data coverage: 2020+ (Results & Spread scraper).

Schedule Context

Performance sliced by when, where, and against whom.

By month

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Sep	4	3-1	3-1	0-4	75%
Oct	3	2-1	1-2	2-1	33%
Nov	5	4-1	4-0-1	1-4	100%
Dec	4	1-3	1-2-1	1-3	33%

By day of week

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Thu	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Sat	1	0-1	0-0-1	1-0	—
Sun	14	9-5	8-5-1	3-11	62%

By season half

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
First half (W1-9)	8	6-2	5-3	2-6	62%
Second half (W10+)	8	4-4	4-2-2	2-6	67%

By surface

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Grass	5	3-2	3-0-2	2-3	100%
Turf	11	7-4	6-5	2-9	55%

By site role

No data.

By group

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Same division	6	3-3	3-2-1	3-3	60%
Same conference	6	4-2	3-2-1	0-6	60%
Inter-conference	4	3-1	3-1	1-3	75%

Weather

How the team performs in cold, hot, windy, and indoor conditions.

By temperature

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Cold (<40°F)	2	1-1	1-0-1	1-1	100%
Cool (40-59°F)	7	2-5	3-3-1	1-6	50%
Mild (60-74°F)	2	2-0	1-1	2-0	50%
Warm (75°F+)	4	4-0	3-1	0-4	75%
Indoor	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By wind

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Calm (<5 mph)	1	0-1	0-0-1	1-0	—
Breezy (5-14 mph)	10	7-3	6-3-1	2-8	67%
Windy (≥15 mph)	4	2-2	2-2	1-3	50%
Indoor	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

Streaks & Trends

Current run, season records, and performance after specific game outcomes.

Current streaks

Dimension	Streak	Length
SU	L	2
ATS	L	1
O/U	U	1

Longest this season

Dimension	Length
Longest SU win streak	3
Longest SU loss streak	2
Longest ATS cover	3
Longest ATS no-cover	2
Longest O streak	2
Longest U streak	5

Performance context

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
After a win	10	5-5	4-4-2	3-7	50%
After a loss	5	4-1	4-1	1-4	80%
On 2+ winning streak	5	2-3	2-3	1-4	40%
vs winning opp.	5	2-3	3-1-1	1-4	75%
vs losing opp.	9	6-3	4-4-1	3-6	50%

Travel & Venue Context

Physical context — where games were played, how far the team traveled, and how much rest they had.

By environment

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Outdoor	15	9-6	8-5-2	4-11	62%
Retractable (closed)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%

By venue type

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Domestic home	8	4-4	3-5	2-6	38%
Domestic road	8	6-2	6-0-2	2-6	100%

By travel distance

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Home (0 mi)	8	4-4	3-5	2-6	38%
Short (<500)	5	3-2	3-0-2	1-4	100%
Medium (500-1500)	3	3-0	3-0	1-2	100%

By rest days

Bucket	G	SU	ATS	O/U	ATS%
Short week (3-4d)	1	1-0	1-0	0-1	100%
Standard (5-7d)	11	7-4	7-2-2	3-8	78%
Long week (8-10d)	2	0-2	0-2	0-2	0%
Bye+ (11+d)	1	1-0	0-1	1-0	0%

Betting Profile Heatmap

ATS performance across every context. Color = ATS%; opacity = sample size.

By month

SepATS 3-14 G

OctATS 1-23 G

NovATS 4-0-15 G

DecATS 1-2-14 G

By day of week

ThuATS 1-01 G

SatATS 0-0-11 G

SunATS 8-5-114 G

By season half

First half (W1-9)ATS 5-38 G

Second half (W10+)ATS 4-2-28 G

By surface

GrassATS 3-0-25 G

TurfATS 6-511 G

By site role

No data.

By group

Same divisionATS 3-2-16 G

Same conferenceATS 3-2-16 G

Inter-conferenceATS 3-14 G

By environment

OutdoorATS 8-5-215 G

Retractable (closed)ATS 1-01 G

By venue type

Domestic homeATS 3-58 G

Domestic roadATS 6-0-28 G

By travel distance

Home (0 mi)ATS 3-58 G

Short (<500)ATS 3-0-25 G

Medium (500-1500)ATS 3-03 G

By rest days

Short week (3-4d)ATS 1-01 G

Standard (5-7d)ATS 7-2-211 G

Long week (8-10d)ATS 0-22 G

Bye+ (11+d)ATS 0-11 G

By opponent SRS

Elite (1-8)ATS 2-1-14 G

Above avg (9-16)ATS 2-13 G

Below avg (17-24)ATS 1-0-12 G

Weak (25-32)ATS 4-37 G

ATS%:< 40%40-44%45-54%55-59%≥ 60%

Spread-Role Performance

ATS% by pre-game spread role. Tells you which roles this team handles well or folds in.

Vegas Accuracy

Vegas closing spread vs actual margin. MAE = average miss in pts; Bias = whether Vegas systematically over- or under-rated the team.

MAE 7.2 ptsBias +3.0 pts (Vegas under-rated this team)

Stat trajectory

Multi-year history with league average. Pick a stat to compare.

Stat:

Division Comparison: AFC East

This team and its three division rivals, side by side.

Team	Record	SoS	Pts/G	Pts Allowed/G	Off EXP	Def EXP
Buffalo Bills (BUF)	10-6	0.461 #30	19.6	16.2	7.70	51.46
Miami Dolphins (MIA)	5-11	0.484 #22	19.1	30.9	-28.85	-170.02
New England Patriots (NE)	12-4	0.469 #29	26.3	14.1	35.46	169.58
New York Jets (NYJ)	7-9	0.473 #27	17.3	22.4	-112.92	6.94

Insights

A look at how the 2019 Buffalo Bills ranked among the league's 32 teams in efficiency: Strengths: defensive pass yards allowed per play (3rd of 32), defensive pass yards allowed per play (3rd of 32), and defensive yac over expected allowed (3rd of 32). Weaknesses: offensive avg yards after catch (30th of 32), offensive yac over expected (28th of 32), and defensive rush success rate allowed (27th of 32).


Drives	186	179	+7	#8
Plays / Drive	5.60	5.86	-0.26	#26
Yds / Drive	28.50	31.14	-2.64	#24
Points / Drive	1.63	1.95	-0.32	#24
Score %	30.10	35.87	-5.77	#26
Turnover %	10.20	11.72	-1.52	#11


Rush Att	465	418.34	+46.66	#6
Rush Yds	2054	1,806.44	+247.56	#8
Rush Y/A	4.40	4.28	+0.12	#13
Rush TD	13	13.97	-0.97	#18
EXP Pts Rush	0.33	-12.14	+12.47	#8


3rd Down Att	212	204.13	+7.88	#8
3rd Down Made	76	79.66	-3.66	#21
4th Down Att	18	18.59	-0.59	#15
4th Down Made	8	8.91	-0.91	#15
Red Zone Att	44	50.81	-6.81	#26
Red Zone Scores	25	28.78	-3.78	#22


Drives	182	179	+3	#21
Plays / Drive	5.60	5.87	-0.27	#7
Yds / Drive	26.10	31.11	-5.01	#4
Points / Drive	1.30	1.94	-0.64	#2
Score %	23.60	35.78	-12.18	#2
Turnover %	12.10	11.75	+0.35	#14


Rush Att	388	418.34	-30.34	#8
Rush Yds	1649	1,806.44	-157.44	#10
Rush Y/A	4.30	4.31	-0.01	#19
Rush TD	12	13.97	-1.97	#12
EXP Pts Rush	7.60	12.14	-4.54	#20


2018	-96.9	17.0	-80.0
2019	7.7	51.5	+59.2

Scoring & Efficiency

Scoring & Efficiency Defense

Scoring Composition

Offense

Drive Averages

Rushing

Passing

Team Conversions

Defense

Drive Averages Defense

Rushing Defense

Passing Defense

Team Conversions Defense

Special Teams

Defensive Pressure & Tackles

EPA & Efficiency

Air Yards & YAC

Discipline

Top 10 Ranks

Bottom 10 Ranks

Most Improved YoY

5-Year Trajectory

Passing Profile

Weekly Results vs Vegas

Betting Profile

Head-to-Head

Schedule Context

By month

By day of week

By season half

By surface

By site role

By group

Weather

By temperature

By wind

Streaks & Trends

Current streaks

Longest this season

Performance context

Travel & Venue Context

By environment

By venue type

By travel distance

By rest days

Betting Profile Heatmap

Spread-Role Performance

Vegas Accuracy

Stat trajectory

Division Comparison: AFC East

Insights

Other teams in AFC East