Every week nfllines.com calculates NFL power ratings for every team.  These ratings are used to compare teams and calculate a point spread.  This calculated point spread is compared to the Vegas point spread and predictions are made based on the perceived line error.   You can also find each team’s power rating/ranking & movement on the weekly picks sheet.

The NFL team power ratings allows comparisons between teams for prediction purposes.  The average team is set at 100.  Typically playoff teams will have a power rating above 100, while eliminated teams are most likely under 100.

The range of the Power Ratings is currently set to 14-17 points.  This allows for up to 20 point spreads when a dominant team at home meets a hapless team traveling to play them.  Rarely do NFL lines get above 16-17 points, thus the need for a cap even if the predicted spread were to be higher.

Because NFLlines uses game generated statistics for all the power ratings, picks, and positional ratings, there is nothing to go on prior to week 1(pre-season is meaningless as some teams now never play a starter in any pre season game).

However teams need some kind of rating to begin the season, so the prior year’s season power ratings are used with some very simple modifications.

Since power rating generally run in line with record, teams with the worst power ratings typically have high draft picks, and teams with high power ratings have lower draft picks.

Thus strong teams are slightly weakened via FA loss and lower draft picks, while weaker teams are “helped” by the draft and typically snap up FAs from successful teams.

• Teams ranked 1 through 10 in the 2024 power ranking have one point subtracted from their 2024 power rating.
• Teams ranked 23rd through 32nd have one point added to their 2024 power rankings.
• Teams ranked 11th through 22nd get no adjustment.

After 2025 week 1, each team will have a 2025 power rating, and that will be blended with their 2024 rating through week 3.  This blend tries to compensate for early season upsets which happen every year and doesn’t end up ranking the Ravens or Eagles 32nd if they happen to have a poor week 1 performance.

In week 4 of the 2025 season, teams power ratings will be based entirely on 2025 statistics and will remain so through the rest of the season.