What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Bills led at 51.32; the league average was 40.18.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

BUF · 51.32

League average

40.18

Best to worst

21.76

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	51.32	16
2	KC	48.96	17
3	CIN	47.55	16
4	PHI	46.82	17
5	DAL	45.65	17
6	LAC	45.49	17
7	SF	45.24	17
8	PIT	44.92	17
9	BAL	42.79	17
10	ATL	42.49	17
11	CHI	42.40	17
12	JAX	42.06	17
13	NO	41.94	17
14	DET	41.43	17
15	MIN	41.15	17
16	LV	40.67	17
17	GB	40.40	17
18	LAR	39.15	17
19	CLE	38.60	17
20	TB	38.27	17
21	SEA	38.00	17
22	NYG	37.98	17
23	TEN	37.33	17
24	MIA	36.98	17
25	NE	36.19	17
26	WAS	35.81	17
27	ARI	35.50	17
28	NYJ	34.73	17
29	IND	33.77	17
30	CAR	32.18	17
31	HOU	30.32	17
32	DEN	29.57	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 51.32

League laggard

DEN · 29.57

League average

40.18

Spread (max − min)

21.76

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	51.32	11.15	100%
2	KC	48.96	8.78	96.8%
3	CIN	47.55	7.37	93.5%
4	PHI	46.82	6.64	90.3%
5	DAL	45.65	5.48	87.1%
6	LAC	45.49	5.31	83.9%
7	SF	45.24	5.06	80.6%
8	PIT	44.92	4.74	77.4%
9	BAL	42.79	2.61	74.2%
10	ATL	42.49	2.31	71%
11	CHI	42.40	2.22	67.7%
12	JAX	42.06	1.88	64.5%
13	NO	41.94	1.76	61.3%
14	DET	41.43	1.25	58.1%
15	MIN	41.15	0.97	54.8%
16	LV	40.67	0.49	51.6%
17	GB	40.40	0.23	48.4%
18	LAR	39.15	-1.02	45.2%
19	CLE	38.60	-1.58	41.9%
20	TB	38.27	-1.90	38.7%
21	SEA	38.00	-2.18	35.5%
22	NYG	37.98	-2.20	32.3%
23	TEN	37.33	-2.85	29%
24	MIA	36.98	-3.20	25.8%
25	NE	36.19	-3.99	22.6%
26	WAS	35.81	-4.37	19.4%
27	ARI	35.50	-4.68	16.1%
28	NYJ	34.73	-5.45	12.9%
29	IND	33.77	-6.40	9.7%
30	CAR	32.18	-8.00	6.5%
31	HOU	30.32	-9.86	3.2%
32	DEN	29.57	-10.61	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2022 vs 2021

Bills lead at 51.32 — they ranked #2 last year. Broncos are last at 29.57 — #21 last year.

The league average is 40.18, down 0.96 from 41.13 last year.

Biggest riser: Bears, #31 → #11. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #4 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 21.76; 21 teams are within 5.21 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CHI · +6.88

Biggest faller

ARI · −11.29

Most consistent

LAC · −0.17

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -0.96

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	CHI	42.40	35.51	+6.88
2	DET	41.43	34.74	+6.69
3	CIN	47.55	41.06	+6.49
4	BAL	42.79	36.44	+6.35
5	NO	41.94	36.07	+5.86
6	JAX	42.06	36.67	+5.39
7	PIT	44.92	39.75	+5.17
8	MIN	41.15	37.44	+3.71
9	SF	45.24	41.84	+3.40
10	BUF	51.32	48.17	+3.16
11	ATL	42.49	39.71	+2.77
12	LV	40.67	38.05	+2.62
13	DAL	45.65	44.20	+1.46
14	PHI	46.82	45.91	+0.91
15	NYG	37.98	37.39	+0.59
16	SEA	38.00	37.82	+0.18
17	LAC	45.49	45.66	−0.17
18	CLE	38.60	39.62	−1.03
19	NYJ	34.73	36.97	−2.24
20	WAS	35.81	39.29	−3.48
21	GB	40.40	44.00	−3.60
22	CAR	32.18	36.21	−4.03
23	KC	48.96	53.20	−4.24
24	MIA	36.98	41.56	−4.58
25	LAR	39.15	44.12	−4.97
26	TEN	37.33	43.83	−6.50
27	IND	33.77	41.83	−8.05
28	NE	36.19	44.88	−8.69
29	TB	38.27	47.95	−9.67
30	DEN	29.57	39.25	−9.69
31	HOU	30.32	40.34	−10.02
32	ARI	35.50	46.79	−11.29

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20), 2022 Bills (51.32).

Bills have led this stat 2 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Commanders 2019 at 29.05.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.