What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Colts led at 50.48; the league average was 39.84.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

IND · 50.48

League average

39.84

Best to worst

21.19

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	IND	50.48	16
2	KC	47.16	16
3	NO	46.67	16
4	TB	46.24	16
5	BAL	45.81	16
6	ATL	45.54	16
7	LAR	45.50	16
8	PIT	44.22	16
9	CAR	42.08	16
10	PHI	41.87	16
11	DAL	41.59	16
12	NE	41.41	16
13	JAX	41.30	16
14	CHI	41.00	16
15	SEA	40.89	16
16	TEN	40.69	16
17	LAC	40.23	16
18	SF	38.42	16
19	LV	38.34	16
20	NYG	37.38	16
21	HOU	37.32	16
22	MIN	36.95	16
23	GB	36.76	16
24	DET	36.71	16
25	CIN	36.51	16
26	CLE	36.41	16
27	WAS	36.41	16
28	DEN	34.15	16
29	NYJ	33.49	16
30	BUF	33.33	16
31	MIA	30.81	16
32	ARI	29.29	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

IND · 50.48

League laggard

ARI · 29.29

League average

39.84

Spread (max − min)

21.19

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	IND	50.48	10.64	100%
2	KC	47.16	7.32	96.8%
3	NO	46.67	6.82	93.5%
4	TB	46.24	6.39	90.3%
5	BAL	45.81	5.97	87.1%
6	ATL	45.54	5.70	83.9%
7	LAR	45.50	5.66	80.6%
8	PIT	44.22	4.38	77.4%
9	CAR	42.08	2.23	74.2%
10	PHI	41.87	2.03	71%
11	DAL	41.59	1.75	67.7%
12	NE	41.41	1.57	64.5%
13	JAX	41.30	1.46	61.3%
14	CHI	41.00	1.16	58.1%
15	SEA	40.89	1.04	54.8%
16	TEN	40.69	0.84	51.6%
17	LAC	40.23	0.39	48.4%
18	SF	38.42	-1.42	45.2%
19	LV	38.34	-1.50	41.9%
20	NYG	37.38	-2.46	38.7%
21	HOU	37.32	-2.52	35.5%
22	MIN	36.95	-2.90	32.3%
23	GB	36.76	-3.08	29%
24	DET	36.71	-3.13	25.8%
25	CIN	36.51	-3.33	22.6%
26	CLE	36.41	-3.44	19.4%
27	WAS	36.41	-3.44	16.1%
28	DEN	34.15	-5.70	12.9%
29	NYJ	33.49	-6.35	9.7%
30	BUF	33.33	-6.51	6.5%
31	MIA	30.81	-9.03	3.2%
32	ARI	29.29	-10.55	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.