What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the 49ers led at 50.72; the league average was 40.18.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

SF · 50.72

League average

40.18

Best to worst

18.82

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	SF	50.72	17
2	GB	48.54	17
3	BUF	46.34	17
4	LAC	46.00	17
5	CIN	44.50	17
6	NE	43.59	17
7	IND	43.01	17
8	DAL	42.93	17
9	DEN	42.67	17
10	SEA	42.57	17
11	CHI	42.54	17
12	ARI	42.41	17
13	TB	41.85	17
14	PIT	41.35	17
15	BAL	41.29	17
16	LAR	40.43	17
17	NYG	40.36	17
18	JAX	40.28	17
19	NO	39.64	17
20	DET	38.97	17
21	PHI	38.16	17
22	WAS	37.97	17
23	KC	37.96	17
24	HOU	37.83	17
25	CAR	36.45	17
26	MIA	35.42	17
27	NYJ	34.93	17
28	CLE	34.47	17
29	LV	34.27	17
30	ATL	34.15	17
31	MIN	32.29	17
32	TEN	31.90	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

SF · 50.72

League laggard

TEN · 31.90

League average

40.18

Spread (max − min)

18.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	SF	50.72	10.54	100%
2	GB	48.54	8.36	96.8%
3	BUF	46.34	6.16	93.5%
4	LAC	46.00	5.82	90.3%
5	CIN	44.50	4.31	87.1%
6	NE	43.59	3.41	83.9%
7	IND	43.01	2.82	80.6%
8	DAL	42.93	2.75	77.4%
9	DEN	42.67	2.49	74.2%
10	SEA	42.57	2.39	71%
11	CHI	42.54	2.36	67.7%
12	ARI	42.41	2.23	64.5%
13	TB	41.85	1.67	61.3%
14	PIT	41.35	1.17	58.1%
15	BAL	41.29	1.11	54.8%
16	LAR	40.43	0.24	51.6%
17	NYG	40.36	0.18	48.4%
18	JAX	40.28	0.10	45.2%
19	NO	39.64	-0.54	41.9%
20	DET	38.97	-1.21	38.7%
21	PHI	38.16	-2.02	35.5%
22	WAS	37.97	-2.21	32.3%
23	KC	37.96	-2.22	29%
24	HOU	37.83	-2.35	25.8%
25	CAR	36.45	-3.73	22.6%
26	MIA	35.42	-4.76	19.4%
27	NYJ	34.93	-5.25	16.1%
28	CLE	34.47	-5.71	12.9%
29	LV	34.27	-5.91	9.7%
30	ATL	34.15	-6.03	6.5%
31	MIN	32.29	-7.89	3.2%
32	TEN	31.90	-8.28	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2025 vs 2024

49ers lead at 50.72 — they ranked #10 last year. Titans are last at 31.90 — #22 last year.

The league average is 40.18, down 0.16 from 40.35 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #28 → #6. Biggest faller: Chiefs, #2 → #23.

Spread between first and last: 18.82; 21 teams are within 4.50 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CHI · +9.21

Biggest faller

KC · −11.37

Most consistent

CAR · +0.43

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▼ -0.16

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	CHI	42.54	33.33	+9.21
2	GB	48.54	39.79	+8.75
3	SF	50.72	42.86	+7.86
4	NE	43.59	35.98	+7.61
5	DAL	42.93	37.00	+5.92
6	IND	43.01	38.07	+4.93
7	SEA	42.57	37.98	+4.59
8	LAC	46.00	41.47	+4.53
9	CLE	34.47	29.96	+4.51
10	NO	39.64	35.35	+4.29
11	NYG	40.36	36.09	+4.27
12	JAX	40.28	37.25	+3.03
13	DEN	42.67	39.91	+2.76
14	LAR	40.43	37.76	+2.67
15	BUF	46.34	44.95	+1.39
16	PIT	41.35	40.53	+0.82
17	CAR	36.45	36.02	+0.43
18	HOU	37.83	38.26	−0.43
19	MIA	35.42	36.67	−1.25
20	LV	34.27	35.59	−1.31
21	ARI	42.41	43.75	−1.34
22	CIN	44.50	46.73	−2.23
23	NYJ	34.93	40.00	−5.07
24	ATL	34.15	39.61	−5.47
25	TEN	31.90	37.67	−5.78
26	PHI	38.16	44.16	−5.99
27	BAL	41.29	48.68	−7.38
28	WAS	37.97	45.87	−7.90
29	TB	41.85	50.69	−8.84
30	MIN	32.29	41.21	−8.91
31	DET	38.97	48.53	−9.56
32	KC	37.96	49.33	−11.37

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20), 2022 Bills (51.32), 2023 Bills (50.92), 2024 Buccaneers (50.69), 2025 49ers (50.72).

Bills have led this stat 3 of 8 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Jets 2023 at 26.27.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.