What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Bills led at 51.10; the league average was 42.51.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

BUF · 51.10

League average

42.51

Best to worst

16.79

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	51.10	16
2	GB	50.00	16
3	KC	50.00	16
4	BAL	49.28	16
5	TEN	46.67	16
6	LV	46.19	16
7	CLE	46.15	16
8	NO	46.08	16
9	TB	45.99	16
10	HOU	44.97	16
11	LAC	44.59	16
12	ATL	44.55	16
13	LAR	43.75	16
14	PIT	42.92	16
15	SEA	41.94	16
16	NE	41.62	16
17	DET	41.36	16
18	MIN	41.11	16
19	JAX	40.98	16
20	IND	40.93	16
21	DAL	40.93	16
22	ARI	40.50	16
23	SF	40.31	16
24	CAR	40.21	16
25	WAS	40.09	16
26	DEN	39.23	16
27	MIA	38.81	16
28	PHI	37.44	16
29	NYG	37.24	16
30	CIN	36.15	16
31	CHI	34.98	16
32	NYJ	34.31	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 51.10

League laggard

NYJ · 34.31

League average

42.51

Spread (max − min)

16.79

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	51.10	8.59	100%
2	GB	50.00	7.49	96.8%
3	KC	50.00	7.49	93.5%
4	BAL	49.28	6.76	90.3%
5	TEN	46.67	4.15	87.1%
6	LV	46.19	3.68	83.9%
7	CLE	46.15	3.64	80.6%
8	NO	46.08	3.57	77.4%
9	TB	45.99	3.48	74.2%
10	HOU	44.97	2.46	71%
11	LAC	44.59	2.08	67.7%
12	ATL	44.55	2.03	64.5%
13	LAR	43.75	1.24	61.3%
14	PIT	42.92	0.41	58.1%
15	SEA	41.94	-0.58	54.8%
16	NE	41.62	-0.89	51.6%
17	DET	41.36	-1.15	48.4%
18	MIN	41.11	-1.40	45.2%
19	JAX	40.98	-1.54	41.9%
20	IND	40.93	-1.58	38.7%
21	DAL	40.93	-1.58	35.5%
22	ARI	40.50	-2.01	32.3%
23	SF	40.31	-2.21	29%
24	CAR	40.21	-2.31	25.8%
25	WAS	40.09	-2.42	22.6%
26	DEN	39.23	-3.28	19.4%
27	MIA	38.81	-3.71	16.1%
28	PHI	37.44	-5.07	12.9%
29	NYG	37.24	-5.27	9.7%
30	CIN	36.15	-6.36	6.5%
31	CHI	34.98	-7.54	3.2%
32	NYJ	34.31	-8.20	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2020 vs 2019

Bills lead at 51.10 — they ranked #25 last year. Jets are last at 34.31 — #30 last year.

The league average is 42.51, up 2.75 from 39.76 last year.

Biggest riser: Bills, #25 → #1. Biggest faller: Eagles, #5 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 16.79; 23 teams are within 4.30 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

BUF · +15.25

Biggest faller

PHI · −8.17

Most consistent

CIN · −0.05

League trend 2020 vs 2019

▲ 2.75

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	BUF	51.10	35.85	+15.25
2	GB	50.00	38.78	+11.22
3	WAS	40.09	29.05	+11.04
4	CLE	46.15	36.22	+9.93
5	PIT	42.92	34.87	+8.05
6	TEN	46.67	38.67	+7.99
7	CAR	40.21	32.85	+7.36
8	DEN	39.23	32.34	+6.90
9	JAX	40.98	35.02	+5.95
10	ARI	40.50	36.22	+4.28
11	TB	45.99	42.45	+3.54
12	MIA	38.81	35.44	+3.37
13	LAR	43.75	40.38	+3.37
14	NO	46.08	43.09	+2.99
15	NE	41.62	38.67	+2.95
16	LV	46.19	43.78	+2.41
17	KC	50.00	47.59	+2.41
18	SEA	41.94	39.70	+2.24
19	NYJ	34.31	32.55	+1.77
20	BAL	49.28	47.83	+1.45
21	ATL	44.55	43.20	+1.34
22	HOU	44.97	44.27	+0.70
23	DET	41.36	41.10	+0.27
24	CIN	36.15	36.20	−0.05
25	LAC	44.59	44.79	−0.20
26	NYG	37.24	38.39	−1.14
27	CHI	34.98	36.74	−1.77
28	IND	40.93	43.20	−2.27
29	MIN	41.11	44.27	−3.16
30	SF	40.31	45.96	−5.65
31	DAL	40.93	47.29	−6.36
32	PHI	37.44	45.61	−8.17

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10).

The best season on record is Bills 2020 at 51.10; the worst Commanders 2019 at 29.05.

The league average has risen from 39.84 in 2018 to 42.51 in 2020.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.