What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Buccaneers led at 50.69; the league average was 40.35.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

TB · 50.69

League average

40.35

Best to worst

20.73

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	50.69	17
2	KC	49.33	17
3	BAL	48.68	17
4	DET	48.53	17
5	CIN	46.73	17
6	WAS	45.87	17
7	BUF	44.95	17
8	PHI	44.16	17
9	ARI	43.75	17
10	SF	42.86	17
11	LAC	41.47	17
12	MIN	41.21	17
13	PIT	40.53	17
14	NYJ	40.00	17
15	DEN	39.91	17
16	GB	39.79	17
17	ATL	39.61	17
18	HOU	38.26	17
19	IND	38.07	17
20	SEA	37.98	17
21	LAR	37.76	17
22	TEN	37.67	17
23	JAX	37.25	17
24	DAL	37.00	17
25	MIA	36.67	17
26	NYG	36.09	17
27	CAR	36.02	17
28	NE	35.98	17
29	LV	35.59	17
30	NO	35.35	17
31	CHI	33.33	17
32	CLE	29.96	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 50.69

League laggard

CLE · 29.96

League average

40.35

Spread (max − min)

20.73

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	50.69	10.35	100%
2	KC	49.33	8.99	96.8%
3	BAL	48.68	8.33	93.5%
4	DET	48.53	8.18	90.3%
5	CIN	46.73	6.38	87.1%
6	WAS	45.87	5.53	83.9%
7	BUF	44.95	4.60	80.6%
8	PHI	44.16	3.81	77.4%
9	ARI	43.75	3.40	74.2%
10	SF	42.86	2.51	71%
11	LAC	41.47	1.13	67.7%
12	MIN	41.21	0.86	64.5%
13	PIT	40.53	0.18	61.3%
14	NYJ	40.00	-0.35	58.1%
15	DEN	39.91	-0.43	54.8%
16	GB	39.79	-0.55	51.6%
17	ATL	39.61	-0.73	48.4%
18	HOU	38.26	-2.08	45.2%
19	IND	38.07	-2.27	41.9%
20	SEA	37.98	-2.36	38.7%
21	LAR	37.76	-2.59	35.5%
22	TEN	37.67	-2.67	32.3%
23	JAX	37.25	-3.09	29%
24	DAL	37.00	-3.34	25.8%
25	MIA	36.67	-3.68	22.6%
26	NYG	36.09	-4.26	19.4%
27	CAR	36.02	-4.33	16.1%
28	NE	35.98	-4.36	12.9%
29	LV	35.59	-4.76	9.7%
30	NO	35.35	-5.00	6.5%
31	CHI	33.33	-7.01	3.2%
32	CLE	29.96	-10.39	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2024 vs 2023

Buccaneers lead at 50.69 — they ranked #10 last year. Browns are last at 29.96 — #29 last year.

The league average is 40.35, up 0.68 from 39.66 last year.

Biggest riser: Commanders, #26 → #6. Biggest faller: Cowboys, #2 → #24.

Spread between first and last: 20.73; 23 teams are within 4.92 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYJ · +13.73

Biggest faller

DAL · −13.88

Most consistent

HOU · −0.27

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▲ 0.68

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	NYJ	40.00	26.27	+13.73
2	WAS	45.87	35.94	+9.93
3	CIN	46.73	38.32	+8.41
4	TB	50.69	42.67	+8.02
5	BAL	48.68	42.23	+6.44
6	DET	48.53	42.99	+5.54
7	NE	35.98	30.63	+5.35
8	NYG	36.09	31.30	+4.79
9	KC	49.33	44.70	+4.63
10	ARI	43.75	39.46	+4.29
11	PIT	40.53	37.12	+3.41
12	LAC	41.47	38.56	+2.92
13	DEN	39.91	37.16	+2.76
14	TEN	37.67	34.93	+2.75
15	CAR	36.02	34.14	+1.88
16	MIN	41.21	39.46	+1.74
17	IND	38.07	36.36	+1.71
18	SEA	37.98	36.89	+1.09
19	HOU	38.26	38.53	−0.27
20	ATL	39.61	40.44	−0.83
21	LV	35.59	37.09	−1.50
22	JAX	37.25	38.84	−1.58
23	CLE	29.96	32.27	−2.31
24	NO	35.35	39.48	−4.14
25	PHI	44.16	48.43	−4.27
26	SF	42.86	48.04	−5.19
27	LAR	37.76	43.30	−5.55
28	BUF	44.95	50.92	−5.97
29	MIA	36.67	43.22	−6.55
30	GB	39.79	47.30	−7.51
31	CHI	33.33	41.35	−8.02
32	DAL	37.00	50.88	−13.88

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20), 2022 Bills (51.32), 2023 Bills (50.92), 2024 Buccaneers (50.69).

Bills have led this stat 3 of 7 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Jets 2023 at 26.27.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.