What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Chiefs led at 53.20; the league average was 41.13.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

KC · 53.20

League average

41.13

Best to worst

18.46

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	53.20	17
2	BUF	48.17	17
3	TB	47.95	17
4	ARI	46.79	17
5	PHI	45.91	17
6	LAC	45.66	17
7	NE	44.88	17
8	DAL	44.20	17
9	LAR	44.12	17
10	GB	44.00	17
11	TEN	43.83	17
12	SF	41.84	17
13	IND	41.83	17
14	MIA	41.56	17
15	CIN	41.06	17
16	HOU	40.34	17
17	PIT	39.75	17
18	ATL	39.71	17
19	CLE	39.62	17
20	WAS	39.29	17
21	DEN	39.25	17
22	LV	38.05	17
23	SEA	37.82	17
24	MIN	37.44	17
25	NYG	37.39	17
26	NYJ	36.97	17
27	JAX	36.67	17
28	BAL	36.44	17
29	CAR	36.21	17
30	NO	36.07	17
31	CHI	35.51	17
32	DET	34.74	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 53.20

League laggard

DET · 34.74

League average

41.13

Spread (max − min)

18.46

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	53.20	12.07	100%
2	BUF	48.17	7.03	96.8%
3	TB	47.95	6.81	93.5%
4	ARI	46.79	5.66	90.3%
5	PHI	45.91	4.78	87.1%
6	LAC	45.66	4.53	83.9%
7	NE	44.88	3.74	80.6%
8	DAL	44.20	3.06	77.4%
9	LAR	44.12	2.98	74.2%
10	GB	44.00	2.87	71%
11	TEN	43.83	2.70	67.7%
12	SF	41.84	0.70	64.5%
13	IND	41.83	0.69	61.3%
14	MIA	41.56	0.43	58.1%
15	CIN	41.06	-0.07	54.8%
16	HOU	40.34	-0.80	51.6%
17	PIT	39.75	-1.38	48.4%
18	ATL	39.71	-1.42	45.2%
19	CLE	39.62	-1.51	41.9%
20	WAS	39.29	-1.85	38.7%
21	DEN	39.25	-1.88	35.5%
22	LV	38.05	-3.08	32.3%
23	SEA	37.82	-3.31	29%
24	MIN	37.44	-3.69	25.8%
25	NYG	37.39	-3.74	22.6%
26	NYJ	36.97	-4.17	19.4%
27	JAX	36.67	-4.47	16.1%
28	BAL	36.44	-4.69	12.9%
29	CAR	36.21	-4.93	9.7%
30	NO	36.07	-5.06	6.5%
31	CHI	35.51	-5.62	3.2%
32	DET	34.74	-6.39	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2021 vs 2020

Chiefs lead at 53.20 — they ranked #3 last year. Lions are last at 34.74 — #17 last year.

The league average is 41.13, down 1.38 from 42.51 last year.

Biggest riser: Eagles, #28 → #5. Biggest faller: Ravens, #4 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 18.46; 20 teams are within 4.36 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PHI · +8.47

Biggest faller

BAL · −12.83

Most consistent

DEN · +0.02

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.38

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	PHI	45.91	37.44	+8.47
2	ARI	46.79	40.50	+6.29
3	CIN	41.06	36.15	+4.91
4	DAL	44.20	40.93	+3.27
5	NE	44.88	41.62	+3.26
6	KC	53.20	50.00	+3.20
7	MIA	41.56	38.81	+2.75
8	NYJ	36.97	34.31	+2.65
9	TB	47.95	45.99	+1.96
10	SF	41.84	40.31	+1.53
11	LAC	45.66	44.59	+1.07
12	IND	41.83	40.93	+0.89
13	CHI	35.51	34.98	+0.54
14	LAR	44.12	43.75	+0.37
15	NYG	37.39	37.24	+0.15
16	DEN	39.25	39.23	+0.02
17	WAS	39.29	40.09	−0.80
18	TEN	43.83	46.67	−2.84
19	BUF	48.17	51.10	−2.93
20	PIT	39.75	42.92	−3.17
21	MIN	37.44	41.11	−3.67
22	CAR	36.21	40.21	−4.00
23	SEA	37.82	41.94	−4.11
24	JAX	36.67	40.98	−4.31
25	HOU	40.34	44.97	−4.64
26	ATL	39.71	44.55	−4.83
27	GB	44.00	50.00	−6.00
28	CLE	39.62	46.15	−6.53
29	DET	34.74	41.36	−6.62
30	LV	38.05	46.19	−8.14
31	NO	36.07	46.08	−10.01
32	BAL	36.44	49.28	−12.83

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Commanders 2019 at 29.05.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.