What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Bills led at 50.92; the league average was 39.66.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BUF · 50.92

League average

39.66

Best to worst

24.65

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	50.92	17
2	DAL	50.88	17
3	PHI	48.43	17
4	SF	48.04	17
5	GB	47.30	17
6	KC	44.70	17
7	LAR	43.30	17
8	MIA	43.22	17
9	DET	42.99	17
10	TB	42.67	17
11	BAL	42.23	17
12	CHI	41.35	17
13	ATL	40.44	17
14	NO	39.48	17
15	ARI	39.46	17
16	MIN	39.46	17
17	JAX	38.84	17
18	LAC	38.56	17
19	HOU	38.53	17
20	CIN	38.32	17
21	DEN	37.16	17
22	PIT	37.12	17
23	LV	37.09	17
24	SEA	36.89	17
25	IND	36.36	17
26	WAS	35.94	17
27	TEN	34.93	17
28	CAR	34.14	17
29	CLE	32.27	17
30	NYG	31.30	17
31	NE	30.63	17
32	NYJ	26.27	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 50.92

League laggard

NYJ · 26.27

League average

39.66

Spread (max − min)

24.65

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	50.92	11.25	100%
2	DAL	50.88	11.22	96.8%
3	PHI	48.43	8.77	93.5%
4	SF	48.04	8.38	90.3%
5	GB	47.30	7.63	87.1%
6	KC	44.70	5.04	83.9%
7	LAR	43.30	3.64	80.6%
8	MIA	43.22	3.55	77.4%
9	DET	42.99	3.32	74.2%
10	TB	42.67	3.01	71%
11	BAL	42.23	2.57	67.7%
12	CHI	41.35	1.69	64.5%
13	ATL	40.44	0.78	61.3%
14	NO	39.48	-0.18	58.1%
15	ARI	39.46	-0.20	54.8%
16	MIN	39.46	-0.20	51.6%
17	JAX	38.84	-0.82	48.4%
18	LAC	38.56	-1.10	45.2%
19	HOU	38.53	-1.14	41.9%
20	CIN	38.32	-1.35	38.7%
21	DEN	37.16	-2.51	35.5%
22	PIT	37.12	-2.55	32.3%
23	LV	37.09	-2.57	29%
24	SEA	36.89	-2.77	25.8%
25	IND	36.36	-3.30	22.6%
26	WAS	35.94	-3.72	19.4%
27	TEN	34.93	-4.74	16.1%
28	CAR	34.14	-5.53	12.9%
29	CLE	32.27	-7.39	9.7%
30	NYG	31.30	-8.36	6.5%
31	NE	30.63	-9.03	3.2%
32	NYJ	26.27	-13.39	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2023 vs 2022

Bills lead at 50.92 — they ranked #1 last year. Jets are last at 26.27 — #28 last year.

The league average is 39.66, down 0.51 from 40.18 last year.

Biggest riser: Dolphins, #24 → #8. Biggest faller: Bengals, #3 → #20.

Spread between first and last: 24.65; 23 teams are within 5.69 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

HOU · +8.21

Biggest faller

CIN · −9.23

Most consistent

WAS · +0.14

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -0.51

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	HOU	38.53	30.32	+8.21
2	DEN	37.16	29.57	+7.59
3	GB	47.30	40.40	+6.89
4	MIA	43.22	36.98	+6.24
5	DAL	50.88	45.65	+5.23
6	TB	42.67	38.27	+4.40
7	LAR	43.30	39.15	+4.15
8	ARI	39.46	35.50	+3.96
9	SF	48.04	45.24	+2.81
10	IND	36.36	33.77	+2.59
11	CAR	34.14	32.18	+1.96
12	PHI	48.43	46.82	+1.61
13	DET	42.99	41.43	+1.56
14	WAS	35.94	35.81	+0.14
15	BUF	50.92	51.32	−0.41
16	BAL	42.23	42.79	−0.56
17	CHI	41.35	42.40	−1.05
18	SEA	36.89	38.00	−1.11
19	MIN	39.46	41.15	−1.69
20	ATL	40.44	42.49	−2.04
21	TEN	34.93	37.33	−2.40
22	NO	39.48	41.94	−2.45
23	JAX	38.84	42.06	−3.22
24	LV	37.09	40.67	−3.58
25	KC	44.70	48.96	−4.26
26	NE	30.63	36.19	−5.56
27	CLE	32.27	38.60	−6.33
28	NYG	31.30	37.98	−6.68
29	LAC	38.56	45.49	−6.93
30	PIT	37.12	44.92	−7.80
31	NYJ	26.27	34.73	−8.46
32	CIN	38.32	47.55	−9.23

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20), 2022 Bills (51.32), 2023 Bills (50.92).

Bills have led this stat 3 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Jets 2023 at 26.27.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.