What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Rams led at 47.95; the league average was 58.94.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

LAR · 47.95

League average

58.94

Best to worst

21.41

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAR	47.95	17
2	BAL	48.44	17
3	NYG	51.39	17
4	BUF	51.67	16
5	CIN	51.72	16
6	NYJ	51.79	17
7	DEN	52.54	17
8	DAL	54.24	17
9	HOU	54.93	17
10	NO	55.17	17
11	PHI	56.06	17
12	WAS	57.14	17
13	SF	58.49	17
14	ATL	58.82	17
15	GB	58.82	17
16	CAR	59.15	17
17	MIA	59.72	17
18	JAX	60.00	17
19	NE	60.32	17
20	CLE	60.87	17
21	MIN	60.87	17
22	TEN	60.94	17
23	PIT	62.07	17
24	DET	62.34	17
25	SEA	64.18	17
26	LAC	64.62	17
27	ARI	64.94	17
28	CHI	65.85	17
29	IND	66.18	17
30	TB	67.21	17
31	LV	68.18	17
32	KC	69.35	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAR · 47.95

League laggard

KC · 69.35

League average

58.94

Spread (max − min)

21.41

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAR	47.95	-10.99	100%
2	BAL	48.44	-10.50	96.8%
3	NYG	51.39	-7.55	93.5%
4	BUF	51.67	-7.27	90.3%
5	CIN	51.72	-7.21	87.1%
6	NYJ	51.79	-7.15	83.9%
7	DEN	52.54	-6.39	80.6%
8	DAL	54.24	-4.70	77.4%
9	HOU	54.93	-4.01	74.2%
10	NO	55.17	-3.76	71%
11	PHI	56.06	-2.88	67.7%
12	WAS	57.14	-1.79	64.5%
13	SF	58.49	-0.45	61.3%
14	ATL	58.82	-0.11	58.1%
15	GB	58.82	-0.11	54.8%
16	CAR	59.15	0.22	51.6%
17	MIA	59.72	0.79	48.4%
18	JAX	60.00	1.06	45.2%
19	NE	60.32	1.38	41.9%
20	CLE	60.87	1.93	38.7%
21	MIN	60.87	1.93	35.5%
22	TEN	60.94	2.00	32.3%
23	PIT	62.07	3.13	29%
24	DET	62.34	3.40	25.8%
25	SEA	64.18	5.24	22.6%
26	LAC	64.62	5.68	19.4%
27	ARI	64.94	6.00	16.1%
28	CHI	65.85	6.92	12.9%
29	IND	66.18	7.24	9.7%
30	TB	67.21	8.28	6.5%
31	LV	68.18	9.25	3.2%
32	KC	69.35	10.42	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2022 vs 2021

Rams lead at 47.95 — they ranked #4 last year. Chiefs are last at 69.35 — #15 last year.

The league average is 58.94, down 1.84 from 60.77 last year.

Biggest riser: Ravens, #20 → #2. Biggest faller: Buccaneers, #7 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 21.41; 19 teams are within 5.71 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

TB · +13.59

Biggest faller

BAL · −14.42

Most consistent

NYG · +0.17

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -1.84

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	TB	67.21	53.62	+13.59
2	NE	60.32	48.33	+11.98
3	SEA	64.18	55.56	+8.62
4	KC	69.35	61.43	+7.93
5	PIT	62.07	55.26	+6.81
6	CHI	65.85	61.64	+4.21
7	NO	55.17	51.61	+3.56
8	ARI	64.94	61.54	+3.40
9	TEN	60.94	57.58	+3.36
10	MIA	59.72	56.52	+3.20
11	MIN	60.87	59.46	+1.41
12	LAC	64.62	64.00	+0.62
13	NYG	51.39	51.22	+0.17
14	IND	66.18	66.67	−0.49
15	DEN	52.54	53.23	−0.68
16	SF	58.49	59.72	−1.23
17	BUF	51.67	53.57	−1.90
18	CAR	59.15	62.12	−2.97
19	WAS	57.14	60.76	−3.62
20	ATL	58.82	62.96	−4.14
21	LAR	47.95	52.24	−4.29
22	CLE	60.87	65.63	−4.76
23	JAX	60.00	65.33	−5.33
24	DET	62.34	68.49	−6.16
25	DAL	54.24	61.67	−7.43
26	PHI	56.06	66.67	−10.61
27	HOU	54.93	66.25	−11.32
28	CIN	51.72	63.08	−11.35
29	LV	68.18	80.00	−11.82
30	GB	58.82	70.97	−12.14
31	NYJ	51.79	64.77	−12.99
32	BAL	48.44	62.86	−14.42

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67), 2020 Broncos (53.01), 2021 Patriots (48.33), 2022 Rams (47.95).

Broncos have led this stat 2 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Vikings 2018 at 45.16; the worst Raiders 2021 at 80.00.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.