What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Broncos led at 46.67; the league average was 59.77.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

DEN · 46.67

League average

59.77

Best to worst

25.91

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DEN	46.67	16
2	NE	50.00	16
3	PIT	50.00	16
4	TB	51.90	16
5	DAL	52.24	16
6	BAL	52.83	16
7	MIN	53.45	16
8	CHI	54.10	16
9	KC	54.69	16
10	BUF	56.00	16
11	IND	56.06	16
12	CIN	56.76	16
13	GB	56.90	16
14	NYJ	57.81	16
15	SEA	59.42	16
16	ARI	59.49	16
17	LAR	61.29	16
18	CLE	61.97	16
19	ATL	62.69	16
20	JAX	63.38	16
21	CAR	63.41	16
22	NYG	63.64	16
23	DET	64.38	16
24	WAS	64.47	16
25	LAC	64.91	16
26	PHI	65.08	16
27	SF	65.38	16
28	MIA	66.27	16
29	NO	67.80	16
30	TEN	68.42	16
31	LV	68.57	16
32	HOU	72.58	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DEN · 46.67

League laggard

HOU · 72.58

League average

59.77

Spread (max − min)

25.91

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DEN	46.67	-13.10	100%
2	NE	50.00	-9.77	96.8%
3	PIT	50.00	-9.77	93.5%
4	TB	51.90	-7.87	90.3%
5	DAL	52.24	-7.53	87.1%
6	BAL	52.83	-6.94	83.9%
7	MIN	53.45	-6.32	80.6%
8	CHI	54.10	-5.67	77.4%
9	KC	54.69	-5.08	74.2%
10	BUF	56.00	-3.77	71%
11	IND	56.06	-3.71	67.7%
12	CIN	56.76	-3.01	64.5%
13	GB	56.90	-2.87	61.3%
14	NYJ	57.81	-1.95	58.1%
15	SEA	59.42	-0.35	54.8%
16	ARI	59.49	-0.27	51.6%
17	LAR	61.29	1.52	48.4%
18	CLE	61.97	2.20	45.2%
19	ATL	62.69	2.92	41.9%
20	JAX	63.38	3.61	38.7%
21	CAR	63.41	3.65	35.5%
22	NYG	63.64	3.87	32.3%
23	DET	64.38	4.62	29%
24	WAS	64.47	4.71	25.8%
25	LAC	64.91	5.14	22.6%
26	PHI	65.08	5.31	19.4%
27	SF	65.38	5.62	16.1%
28	MIA	66.27	6.50	12.9%
29	NO	67.80	8.03	9.7%
30	TEN	68.42	8.65	6.5%
31	LV	68.57	8.80	3.2%
32	HOU	72.58	12.81	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2019 vs 2018

Broncos lead at 46.67 — they ranked #20 last year. Texans are last at 72.58 — #30 last year.

The league average is 59.77, down 1.60 from 61.36 last year.

Biggest riser: Buccaneers, #32 → #4. Biggest faller: Titans, #3 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 25.91; 21 teams are within 6.34 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

TEN · +15.88

Biggest faller

TB · −20.70

Most consistent

NYJ · +0.31

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -1.60

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	TEN	68.42	52.54	+15.88
2	PHI	65.08	52.17	+12.91
3	LAC	64.91	53.13	+11.79
4	JAX	63.38	54.10	+9.28
5	MIN	53.45	45.16	+8.29
6	WAS	64.47	58.21	+6.26
7	LV	68.57	63.41	+5.16
8	MIA	66.27	61.25	+5.02
9	SEA	59.42	55.38	+4.04
10	DET	64.38	60.61	+3.78
11	NO	67.80	65.63	+2.17
12	CLE	61.97	60.87	+1.10
13	IND	56.06	55.00	+1.06
14	NYG	63.64	62.86	+0.78
15	HOU	72.58	72.00	+0.58
16	NYJ	57.81	57.50	+0.31
17	SF	65.38	65.75	−0.37
18	CHI	54.10	54.90	−0.80
19	DAL	52.24	54.84	−2.60
20	LAR	61.29	64.18	−2.89
21	ARI	59.49	63.01	−3.52
22	ATL	62.69	70.00	−7.31
23	GB	56.90	64.79	−7.89
24	CIN	56.76	65.33	−8.58
25	BUF	56.00	65.00	−9.00
26	CAR	63.41	72.58	−9.17
27	BAL	52.83	64.00	−11.17
28	NE	50.00	62.50	−12.50
29	PIT	50.00	62.50	−12.50
30	KC	54.69	68.06	−13.37
31	DEN	46.67	63.79	−17.13
32	TB	51.90	72.60	−20.70

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67).

The best season on record is Vikings 2018 at 45.16; the worst Buccaneers 2018 at 72.60.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.