What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Ravens led at 40.00; the league average was 57.55.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BAL · 40.00

League average

57.55

Best to worst

27.12

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	40.00	17
2	TEN	41.67	17
3	NE	46.48	17
4	KC	48.33	17
5	ATL	50.72	17
6	TB	50.75	17
7	NYJ	50.77	17
8	PIT	50.79	17
9	GB	54.55	17
10	SF	54.55	17
11	NO	55.17	17
12	CIN	55.56	17
13	HOU	56.25	17
14	MIN	57.81	17
15	LAR	58.46	17
16	DEN	60.81	17
17	BUF	61.11	17
18	LAC	61.11	17
19	DAL	61.40	17
20	MIA	61.43	17
21	ARI	61.45	17
22	NYG	61.64	17
23	CAR	61.97	17
24	IND	62.69	17
25	CHI	62.90	17
26	SEA	63.38	17
27	WAS	63.53	17
28	JAX	64.18	17
29	LV	64.29	17
30	DET	65.15	17
31	CLE	65.52	17
32	PHI	67.12	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 40.00

League laggard

PHI · 67.12

League average

57.55

Spread (max − min)

27.12

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	40.00	-17.55	100%
2	TEN	41.67	-15.88	96.8%
3	NE	46.48	-11.07	93.5%
4	KC	48.33	-9.21	90.3%
5	ATL	50.72	-6.82	87.1%
6	TB	50.75	-6.80	83.9%
7	NYJ	50.77	-6.78	80.6%
8	PIT	50.79	-6.75	77.4%
9	GB	54.55	-3.00	74.2%
10	SF	54.55	-3.00	71%
11	NO	55.17	-2.38	67.7%
12	CIN	55.56	-1.99	64.5%
13	HOU	56.25	-1.30	61.3%
14	MIN	57.81	0.26	58.1%
15	LAR	58.46	0.91	54.8%
16	DEN	60.81	3.26	51.6%
17	BUF	61.11	3.56	48.4%
18	LAC	61.11	3.56	45.2%
19	DAL	61.40	3.86	41.9%
20	MIA	61.43	3.88	38.7%
21	ARI	61.45	3.90	35.5%
22	NYG	61.64	4.10	32.3%
23	CAR	61.97	4.42	29%
24	IND	62.69	5.14	25.8%
25	CHI	62.90	5.36	22.6%
26	SEA	63.38	5.83	19.4%
27	WAS	63.53	5.98	16.1%
28	JAX	64.18	6.63	12.9%
29	LV	64.29	6.74	9.7%
30	DET	65.15	7.60	6.5%
31	CLE	65.52	7.97	3.2%
32	PHI	67.12	9.58	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2023 vs 2022

Ravens lead at 40.00 — they ranked #2 last year. Eagles are last at 67.12 — #11 last year.

The league average is 57.55, down 1.39 from 58.94 last year.

Biggest riser: Chiefs, #32 → #4. Biggest faller: Eagles, #11 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 27.12; 25 teams are within 6.91 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PHI · +11.06

Biggest faller

KC · −21.02

Most consistent

NO · 0.00

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -1.39

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	PHI	67.12	56.06	+11.06
2	LAR	58.46	47.95	+10.52
3	NYG	61.64	51.39	+10.25
4	BUF	61.11	51.67	+9.44
5	DEN	60.81	52.54	+8.27
6	DAL	61.40	54.24	+7.17
7	WAS	63.53	57.14	+6.39
8	CLE	65.52	60.87	+4.65
9	JAX	64.18	60.00	+4.18
10	CIN	55.56	51.72	+3.83
11	CAR	61.97	59.15	+2.82
12	DET	65.15	62.34	+2.81
13	MIA	61.43	59.72	+1.71
14	HOU	56.25	54.93	+1.32
15	NO	55.17	55.17	0.00
16	SEA	63.38	64.18	−0.80
17	NYJ	50.77	51.79	−1.02
18	CHI	62.90	65.85	−2.95
19	MIN	57.81	60.87	−3.06
20	ARI	61.45	64.94	−3.49
21	IND	62.69	66.18	−3.49
22	LAC	61.11	64.62	−3.50
23	LV	64.29	68.18	−3.90
24	SF	54.55	58.49	−3.95
25	GB	54.55	58.82	−4.28
26	ATL	50.72	58.82	−8.10
27	BAL	40.00	48.44	−8.44
28	PIT	50.79	62.07	−11.28
29	NE	46.48	60.32	−13.84
30	TB	50.75	67.21	−16.47
31	TEN	41.67	60.94	−19.27
32	KC	48.33	69.35	−21.02

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67), 2020 Broncos (53.01), 2021 Patriots (48.33), 2022 Rams (47.95), 2023 Ravens (40.00).

Broncos have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2023 at 40.00; the worst Raiders 2021 at 80.00.

The league average has fallen from 61.36 in 2018 to 57.55 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.