What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Vikings led at 45.16; the league average was 61.36.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

MIN · 45.16

League average

61.36

Best to worst

27.44

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	MIN	45.16	16
2	PHI	52.17	16
3	TEN	52.54	16
4	LAC	53.13	16
5	JAX	54.10	16
6	DAL	54.84	16
7	CHI	54.90	16
8	IND	55.00	16
9	SEA	55.38	16
10	NYJ	57.50	16
11	WAS	58.21	16
12	DET	60.61	16
13	CLE	60.87	16
14	MIA	61.25	16
15	NE	62.50	16
16	PIT	62.50	16
17	NYG	62.86	16
18	ARI	63.01	16
19	LV	63.41	16
20	DEN	63.79	16
21	BAL	64.00	16
22	LAR	64.18	16
23	GB	64.79	16
24	BUF	65.00	16
25	CIN	65.33	16
26	NO	65.63	16
27	SF	65.75	16
28	KC	68.06	16
29	ATL	70.00	16
30	HOU	72.00	16
31	CAR	72.58	16
32	TB	72.60	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 45.16

League laggard

TB · 72.60

League average

61.36

Spread (max − min)

27.44

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	45.16	-16.20	100%
2	PHI	52.17	-9.19	96.8%
3	TEN	52.54	-8.82	93.5%
4	LAC	53.13	-8.24	90.3%
5	JAX	54.10	-7.27	87.1%
6	DAL	54.84	-6.53	83.9%
7	CHI	54.90	-6.46	80.6%
8	IND	55.00	-6.36	77.4%
9	SEA	55.38	-5.98	74.2%
10	NYJ	57.50	-3.86	71%
11	WAS	58.21	-3.16	67.7%
12	DET	60.61	-0.76	64.5%
13	CLE	60.87	-0.49	61.3%
14	MIA	61.25	-0.11	58.1%
15	NE	62.50	1.14	54.8%
16	PIT	62.50	1.14	51.6%
17	NYG	62.86	1.49	48.4%
18	ARI	63.01	1.65	45.2%
19	LV	63.41	2.05	41.9%
20	DEN	63.79	2.43	38.7%
21	BAL	64.00	2.64	35.5%
22	LAR	64.18	2.81	32.3%
23	GB	64.79	3.42	29%
24	BUF	65.00	3.64	25.8%
25	CIN	65.33	3.97	22.6%
26	NO	65.63	4.26	19.4%
27	SF	65.75	4.39	16.1%
28	KC	68.06	6.69	12.9%
29	ATL	70.00	8.64	9.7%
30	HOU	72.00	10.64	6.5%
31	CAR	72.58	11.22	3.2%
32	TB	72.60	11.24	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.