What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Broncos led at 53.01; the league average was 63.35.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

DEN · 53.01

League average

63.35

Best to worst

20.32

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DEN	53.01	16
2	NYG	53.62	16
3	LAR	53.70	16
4	ARI	55.71	16
5	CHI	58.21	16
6	MIA	59.38	16
7	SF	59.38	16
8	GB	60.00	16
9	WAS	60.00	16
10	MIN	60.24	16
11	LV	60.47	16
12	BAL	60.71	16
13	TB	61.90	16
14	SEA	62.12	16
15	PIT	62.50	16
16	LAC	63.01	16
17	NYJ	63.29	16
18	IND	64.06	16
19	DAL	65.43	16
20	NE	66.10	16
21	CIN	66.18	16
22	CLE	66.22	16
23	CAR	67.16	16
24	NO	67.24	16
25	HOU	67.50	16
26	BUF	67.69	16
27	PHI	68.12	16
28	ATL	69.01	16
29	TEN	69.23	16
30	JAX	69.51	16
31	DET	73.03	16
32	KC	73.33	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DEN · 53.01

League laggard

KC · 73.33

League average

63.35

Spread (max − min)

20.32

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DEN	53.01	-10.33	100%
2	NYG	53.62	-9.72	96.8%
3	LAR	53.70	-9.64	93.5%
4	ARI	55.71	-7.63	90.3%
5	CHI	58.21	-5.14	87.1%
6	MIA	59.38	-3.97	83.9%
7	SF	59.38	-3.97	80.6%
8	GB	60.00	-3.35	77.4%
9	WAS	60.00	-3.35	74.2%
10	MIN	60.24	-3.11	71%
11	LV	60.47	-2.88	67.7%
12	BAL	60.71	-2.63	64.5%
13	TB	61.90	-1.44	61.3%
14	SEA	62.12	-1.23	58.1%
15	PIT	62.50	-0.85	54.8%
16	LAC	63.01	-0.33	51.6%
17	NYJ	63.29	-0.06	48.4%
18	IND	64.06	0.72	45.2%
19	DAL	65.43	2.09	41.9%
20	NE	66.10	2.76	38.7%
21	CIN	66.18	2.83	35.5%
22	CLE	66.22	2.87	32.3%
23	CAR	67.16	3.82	29%
24	NO	67.24	3.89	25.8%
25	HOU	67.50	4.15	22.6%
26	BUF	67.69	4.35	19.4%
27	PHI	68.12	4.77	16.1%
28	ATL	69.01	5.67	12.9%
29	TEN	69.23	5.88	9.7%
30	JAX	69.51	6.17	6.5%
31	DET	73.03	9.69	3.2%
32	KC	73.33	9.99	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2020 vs 2019

Broncos lead at 53.01 — they ranked #1 last year. Chiefs are last at 73.33 — #9 last year.

The league average is 63.35, up 3.58 from 59.77 last year.

Biggest riser: Dolphins, #28 → #6. Biggest faller: Chiefs, #9 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 20.32; 23 teams are within 5.24 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

KC · +18.65

Biggest faller

NYG · −10.01

Most consistent

NO · −0.56

League trend 2020 vs 2019

▲ 3.58

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	KC	73.33	54.69	+18.65
2	NE	66.10	50.00	+16.10
3	DAL	65.43	52.24	+13.19
4	PIT	62.50	50.00	+12.50
5	BUF	67.69	56.00	+11.69
6	TB	61.90	51.90	+10.01
7	CIN	66.18	56.76	+9.42
8	DET	73.03	64.38	+8.65
9	IND	64.06	56.06	+8.00
10	BAL	60.71	52.83	+7.88
11	MIN	60.24	53.45	+6.79
12	DEN	53.01	46.67	+6.35
13	ATL	69.01	62.69	+6.33
14	JAX	69.51	63.38	+6.13
15	NYJ	63.29	57.81	+5.48
16	CLE	66.22	61.97	+4.24
17	CHI	58.21	54.10	+4.11
18	CAR	67.16	63.41	+3.75
19	GB	60.00	56.90	+3.10
20	PHI	68.12	65.08	+3.04
21	SEA	62.12	59.42	+2.70
22	TEN	69.23	68.42	+0.81
23	NO	67.24	67.80	−0.56
24	LAC	63.01	64.91	−1.90
25	ARI	55.71	59.49	−3.78
26	WAS	60.00	64.47	−4.47
27	HOU	67.50	72.58	−5.08
28	SF	59.38	65.38	−6.01
29	MIA	59.38	66.27	−6.89
30	LAR	53.70	61.29	−7.59
31	LV	60.47	68.57	−8.11
32	NYG	53.62	63.64	−10.01

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67), 2020 Broncos (53.01).

Broncos have led this stat 2 of 3 seasons.

The best season on record is Vikings 2018 at 45.16; the worst Chiefs 2020 at 73.33.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.