What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Bears led at 50.70; the league average was 60.23.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

CHI · 50.70

League average

60.23

Best to worst

22.91

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CHI	50.70	17
2	MIA	50.75	17
3	PHI	50.82	17
4	SEA	51.43	17
5	PIT	53.62	17
6	DEN	54.24	17
7	ARI	55.22	17
8	LAC	55.36	17
9	DET	55.38	17
10	NYG	55.56	17
11	NYJ	57.14	17
12	TB	57.35	17
13	KC	57.81	17
14	NO	58.82	17
15	LAR	58.90	17
16	BUF	59.72	17
17	LV	59.72	17
18	GB	60.00	17
19	BAL	60.94	17
20	MIN	62.07	17
21	NE	62.86	17
22	TEN	63.16	17
23	JAX	64.00	17
24	IND	64.79	17
25	ATL	65.22	17
26	CLE	65.33	17
27	CAR	65.56	17
28	WAS	67.65	17
29	HOU	67.74	17
30	SF	70.42	17
31	CIN	71.43	17
32	DAL	73.61	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CHI · 50.70

League laggard

DAL · 73.61

League average

60.23

Spread (max − min)

22.91

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CHI	50.70	-9.52	100%
2	MIA	50.75	-9.48	96.8%
3	PHI	50.82	-9.41	93.5%
4	SEA	51.43	-8.80	90.3%
5	PIT	53.62	-6.61	87.1%
6	DEN	54.24	-5.99	83.9%
7	ARI	55.22	-5.01	80.6%
8	LAC	55.36	-4.87	77.4%
9	DET	55.38	-4.84	74.2%
10	NYG	55.56	-4.67	71%
11	NYJ	57.14	-3.09	67.7%
12	TB	57.35	-2.88	64.5%
13	KC	57.81	-2.42	61.3%
14	NO	58.82	-1.41	58.1%
15	LAR	58.90	-1.32	54.8%
16	BUF	59.72	-0.51	51.6%
17	LV	59.72	-0.51	48.4%
18	GB	60.00	-0.23	45.2%
19	BAL	60.94	0.71	41.9%
20	MIN	62.07	1.84	38.7%
21	NE	62.86	2.63	35.5%
22	TEN	63.16	2.93	32.3%
23	JAX	64.00	3.77	29%
24	IND	64.79	4.56	25.8%
25	ATL	65.22	4.99	22.6%
26	CLE	65.33	5.10	19.4%
27	CAR	65.56	5.33	16.1%
28	WAS	67.65	7.42	12.9%
29	HOU	67.74	7.51	9.7%
30	SF	70.42	10.19	6.5%
31	CIN	71.43	11.20	3.2%
32	DAL	73.61	13.38	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2024 vs 2023

Bears lead at 50.70 — they ranked #25 last year. Cowboys are last at 73.61 — #19 last year.

The league average is 60.23, up 2.68 from 57.55 last year.

Biggest riser: Eagles, #32 → #3. Biggest faller: Titans, #2 → #22.

Spread between first and last: 22.91; 22 teams are within 6.13 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

TEN · +21.49

Biggest faller

PHI · −16.30

Most consistent

JAX · −0.18

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▲ 2.68

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	TEN	63.16	41.67	+21.49
2	BAL	60.94	40.00	+20.94
3	NE	62.86	46.48	+16.38
4	SF	70.42	54.55	+15.88
5	CIN	71.43	55.56	+15.87
6	ATL	65.22	50.72	+14.49
7	DAL	73.61	61.40	+12.21
8	HOU	67.74	56.25	+11.49
9	KC	57.81	48.33	+9.48
10	TB	57.35	50.75	+6.61
11	NYJ	57.14	50.77	+6.37
12	GB	60.00	54.55	+5.45
13	MIN	62.07	57.81	+4.26
14	WAS	67.65	63.53	+4.12
15	NO	58.82	55.17	+3.65
16	CAR	65.56	61.97	+3.58
17	PIT	53.62	50.79	+2.83
18	IND	64.79	62.69	+2.10
19	LAR	58.90	58.46	+0.44
20	JAX	64.00	64.18	−0.18
21	CLE	65.33	65.52	−0.18
22	BUF	59.72	61.11	−1.39
23	LV	59.72	64.29	−4.56
24	LAC	55.36	61.11	−5.75
25	NYG	55.56	61.64	−6.09
26	ARI	55.22	61.45	−6.22
27	DEN	54.24	60.81	−6.57
28	DET	55.38	65.15	−9.77
29	MIA	50.75	61.43	−10.68
30	SEA	51.43	63.38	−11.95
31	CHI	50.70	62.90	−12.20
32	PHI	50.82	67.12	−16.30

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67), 2020 Broncos (53.01), 2021 Patriots (48.33), 2022 Rams (47.95), 2023 Ravens (40.00), 2024 Bears (50.70).

Broncos have led this stat 2 of 7 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2023 at 40.00; the worst Raiders 2021 at 80.00.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.