What Red zone pct (allowed) is

Red-zone touchdown rate allowed: opponent red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by their red-zone trips, as a percentage. Holding an opponent to three instead of seven, every time they get close.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Patriots led at 48.33; the league average was 60.77.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

NE · 48.33

League average

60.77

Best to worst

31.67

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NE	48.33	17
2	NYG	51.22	17
3	NO	51.61	17
4	LAR	52.24	17
5	DEN	53.23	17
6	BUF	53.57	17
7	TB	53.62	17
8	PIT	55.26	17
9	SEA	55.56	17
10	MIA	56.52	17
11	TEN	57.58	17
12	MIN	59.46	17
13	SF	59.72	17
14	WAS	60.76	17
15	KC	61.43	17
16	ARI	61.54	17
17	CHI	61.64	17
18	DAL	61.67	17
19	CAR	62.12	17
20	BAL	62.86	17
21	ATL	62.96	17
22	CIN	63.08	17
23	LAC	64.00	17
24	NYJ	64.77	17
25	JAX	65.33	17
26	CLE	65.63	17
27	HOU	66.25	17
28	IND	66.67	17
29	PHI	66.67	17
30	DET	68.49	17
31	GB	70.97	17
32	LV	80.00	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NE · 48.33

League laggard

LV · 80.00

League average

60.77

Spread (max − min)

31.67

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NE	48.33	-12.44	100%
2	NYG	51.22	-9.55	96.8%
3	NO	51.61	-9.16	93.5%
4	LAR	52.24	-8.53	90.3%
5	DEN	53.23	-7.55	87.1%
6	BUF	53.57	-7.20	83.9%
7	TB	53.62	-7.15	80.6%
8	PIT	55.26	-5.51	77.4%
9	SEA	55.56	-5.22	74.2%
10	MIA	56.52	-4.25	71%
11	TEN	57.58	-3.20	67.7%
12	MIN	59.46	-1.31	64.5%
13	SF	59.72	-1.05	61.3%
14	WAS	60.76	-0.01	58.1%
15	KC	61.43	0.66	54.8%
16	ARI	61.54	0.76	51.6%
17	CHI	61.64	0.87	48.4%
18	DAL	61.67	0.89	45.2%
19	CAR	62.12	1.35	41.9%
20	BAL	62.86	2.08	38.7%
21	ATL	62.96	2.19	35.5%
22	CIN	63.08	2.30	32.3%
23	LAC	64.00	3.23	29%
24	NYJ	64.77	4.00	25.8%
25	JAX	65.33	4.56	22.6%
26	CLE	65.63	4.85	19.4%
27	HOU	66.25	5.48	16.1%
28	IND	66.67	5.89	12.9%
29	PHI	66.67	5.89	9.7%
30	DET	68.49	7.72	6.5%
31	GB	70.97	10.19	3.2%
32	LV	80.00	19.23	0%

Does Red zone pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 813–765–37 ATS (51.5%) across 2020–2025, #201 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (149–115, 56.4%); its worst 2023 (119–139, 46.1%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	134–136–2	49.6%
2022	271	149–115–7	56.4%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	130–133–9	49.4%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Red zone pct (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Patriots lead at 48.33 — they ranked #20 last year. Raiders are last at 80.00 — #11 last year.

The league average is 60.77, down 2.57 from 63.35 last year.

Biggest riser: Saints, #24 → #3. Biggest faller: Packers, #8 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 31.67; 22 teams are within 6.55 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LV · +19.53

Biggest faller

NE · −17.77

Most consistent

DEN · +0.21

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -2.57

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	LV	80.00	60.47	+19.53
2	GB	70.97	60.00	+10.97
3	ARI	61.54	55.71	+5.82
4	CHI	61.64	58.21	+3.43
5	IND	66.67	64.06	+2.60
6	BAL	62.86	60.71	+2.14
7	NYJ	64.77	63.29	+1.48
8	LAC	64.00	63.01	+0.99
9	WAS	60.76	60.00	+0.76
10	SF	59.72	59.38	+0.35
11	DEN	53.23	53.01	+0.21
12	CLE	65.63	66.22	−0.59
13	MIN	59.46	60.24	−0.78
14	HOU	66.25	67.50	−1.25
15	PHI	66.67	68.12	−1.45
16	LAR	52.24	53.70	−1.46
17	NYG	51.22	53.62	−2.40
18	MIA	56.52	59.38	−2.85
19	CIN	63.08	66.18	−3.10
20	DAL	61.67	65.43	−3.77
21	JAX	65.33	69.51	−4.18
22	DET	68.49	73.03	−4.54
23	CAR	62.12	67.16	−5.04
24	ATL	62.96	69.01	−6.05
25	SEA	55.56	62.12	−6.57
26	PIT	55.26	62.50	−7.24
27	TB	53.62	61.90	−8.28
28	TEN	57.58	69.23	−11.66
29	KC	61.43	73.33	−11.90
30	BUF	53.57	67.69	−14.12
31	NO	51.61	67.24	−15.63
32	NE	48.33	66.10	−17.77

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 53.94

Multi-year laggard

DET · 67.50

Biggest improver

MIN · −4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

WAS · +3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	53.94	−4.03	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
2	BAL	54.46	−0.85	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
3	DEN	54.48	+0.40	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
4	LAR	55.25	+1.41	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
5	PIT	57.95	+0.02	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
6	NYJ	58.38	−0.70	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
7	NYG	58.84	+3.27	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
8	LAC	59.16	−2.08	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
9	NE	59.35	+1.25	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
10	SF	59.41	−0.20	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
11	NO	59.43	+0.85	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
12	MIA	59.57	+0.84	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
13	TB	59.69	+0.27	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
14	SEA	59.73	+0.15	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
15	CIN	59.79	−1.29	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
16	ATL	60.14	−1.55	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
17	TEN	60.31	+0.04	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
18	KC	60.40	−2.53	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
19	PHI	60.61	−1.98	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
20	JAX	61.06	−3.13	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
21	CHI	61.20	+0.35	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
22	HOU	62.74	−0.16	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
23	BUF	62.90	+2.47	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
24	GB	63.20	+1.04	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
25	CLE	63.28	−1.02	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
26	ARI	63.77	+2.80	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
27	IND	64.27	−0.16	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
28	CAR	64.85	+1.31	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
29	DAL	65.00	+1.56	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
30	WAS	66.14	+3.64	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
31	LV	66.72	−0.13	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27
32	DET	67.50	+0.47	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
NE	66.10	48.33	60.32	46.48	62.86	66.67	64.71
NYG	53.62	51.22	51.39	61.64	55.56	64.79	73.68
NO	67.24	51.61	55.17	55.17	58.82	58.73	69.23
LAR	53.70	52.24	47.95	58.46	58.90	52.31	63.16
DEN	53.01	53.23	52.54	60.81	54.24	47.54	60.00
BUF	67.69	53.57	51.67	61.11	59.72	68.25	78.26
TB	61.90	53.62	67.21	50.75	57.35	70.77	56.25
PIT	62.50	55.26	62.07	50.79	53.62	57.14	64.29
SEA	62.12	55.56	64.18	63.38	51.43	50.00	71.43
MIA	59.38	56.52	59.72	61.43	50.75	64.00	65.22
TEN	69.23	57.58	60.94	41.67	63.16	67.11	62.50
MIN	60.24	59.46	60.87	57.81	62.07	45.90	31.25
SF	59.38	59.72	58.49	54.55	70.42	60.00	53.33
WAS	60.00	60.76	57.14	63.53	67.65	68.92	85.00
KC	73.33	61.43	69.35	48.33	57.81	54.24	58.33
ARI	55.71	61.54	64.94	61.45	55.22	64.20	83.33
CHI	58.21	61.64	65.85	62.90	50.70	64.38	64.71
DAL	65.43	61.67	54.24	61.40	73.61	71.95	66.67
CAR	67.16	62.12	59.15	61.97	65.56	57.97	80.00
BAL	60.71	62.86	48.44	40.00	60.94	53.25	55.00
ATL	69.01	62.96	58.82	50.72	65.22	59.70	54.55
CIN	66.18	63.08	51.72	55.56	71.43	62.96	47.62
LAC	63.01	64.00	64.62	61.11	55.36	50.00	56.00
NYJ	63.29	64.77	51.79	50.77	57.14	68.29	52.63
JAX	69.51	65.33	60.00	64.18	64.00	65.52	38.89
CLE	66.22	65.63	60.87	65.52	65.33	61.54	57.89
HOU	67.50	66.25	54.93	56.25	67.74	61.82	64.71
IND	64.06	66.67	66.18	62.69	64.79	54.05	71.43
PHI	68.12	66.67	56.06	67.12	50.82	58.93	56.52
DET	73.03	68.49	62.34	65.15	55.38	68.12	80.00
GB	60.00	70.97	58.82	54.55	60.00	64.41	73.68
LV	60.47	80.00	68.18	64.29	59.72	57.14	77.27

Red zone pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (45.16), 2019 Broncos (46.67), 2020 Broncos (53.01), 2021 Patriots (48.33).

Broncos have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Vikings 2018 at 45.16; the worst Raiders 2021 at 80.00.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.