What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Chiefs led at 10.06; the league average was -1.37.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

KC · 10.06

League average

-1.37

Best to worst

21.77

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	10.06	17
2	BUF	7.40	16
3	PHI	4.79	17
4	DET	3.96	17
5	CIN	3.46	16
6	SF	3.14	17
7	JAX	2.37	17
8	NYG	1.99	17
9	MIA	1.50	17
10	DAL	1.41	17
11	SEA	1.28	17
12	BAL	0.89	17
13	LV	-0.09	17
14	ATL	-0.17	17
15	GB	-0.42	17
16	CLE	-0.43	17
17	MIN	-1.35	17
18	PIT	-1.44	17
19	LAC	-1.60	17
20	CAR	-2.69	17
21	CHI	-3.36	17
22	NO	-4.36	17
23	WAS	-4.68	17
24	TB	-4.89	17
25	TEN	-5.12	17
26	NE	-5.64	17
27	LAR	-5.84	17
28	DEN	-6.81	17
29	NYJ	-7.27	17
30	ARI	-7.84	17
31	HOU	-10.24	17
32	IND	-11.71	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 10.06

League laggard

IND · -11.71

League average

-1.37

Spread (max − min)

21.77

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	10.06	11.43	100%
2	BUF	7.40	8.77	96.8%
3	PHI	4.79	6.15	93.5%
4	DET	3.96	5.33	90.3%
5	CIN	3.46	4.82	87.1%
6	SF	3.14	4.50	83.9%
7	JAX	2.37	3.73	80.6%
8	NYG	1.99	3.36	77.4%
9	MIA	1.50	2.87	74.2%
10	DAL	1.41	2.78	71%
11	SEA	1.28	2.65	67.7%
12	BAL	0.89	2.26	64.5%
13	LV	-0.09	1.27	61.3%
14	ATL	-0.17	1.19	58.1%
15	GB	-0.42	0.94	54.8%
16	CLE	-0.43	0.93	51.6%
17	MIN	-1.35	0.02	48.4%
18	PIT	-1.44	-0.07	45.2%
19	LAC	-1.60	-0.23	41.9%
20	CAR	-2.69	-1.33	38.7%
21	CHI	-3.36	-1.99	35.5%
22	NO	-4.36	-2.99	32.3%
23	WAS	-4.68	-3.32	29%
24	TB	-4.89	-3.52	25.8%
25	TEN	-5.12	-3.75	22.6%
26	NE	-5.64	-4.27	19.4%
27	LAR	-5.84	-4.48	16.1%
28	DEN	-6.81	-5.45	12.9%
29	NYJ	-7.27	-5.91	9.7%
30	ARI	-7.84	-6.47	6.5%
31	HOU	-10.24	-8.87	3.2%
32	IND	-11.71	-10.34	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

EXP in 2022 vs 2021

Chiefs lead at 10.06 — they ranked #1 last year. Colts are last at -11.71 — #11 last year.

The league average is -1.37, down 0.61 from -0.76 last year.

Biggest riser: Giants, #31 → #8. Biggest faller: Buccaneers, #3 → #24.

Spread between first and last: 21.77; 23 teams are within 4.87 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYG · +12.07

Biggest faller

IND · −14.91

Most consistent

SEA · +0.05

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -0.61

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	NYG	1.99	-10.08	+12.07
2	JAX	2.37	-7.41	+9.78
3	DET	3.96	-5.01	+8.98
4	CAR	-2.69	-10.77	+8.08
5	MIA	1.50	-5.01	+6.51
6	ATL	-0.17	-6.17	+6.00
7	CHI	-3.36	-7.00	+3.65
8	PIT	-1.44	-5.08	+3.64
9	BUF	7.40	4.46	+2.94
10	NO	-4.36	-7.11	+2.76
11	PHI	4.79	3.22	+1.56
12	CLE	-0.43	-1.92	+1.49
13	CIN	3.46	2.53	+0.93
14	LV	-0.09	-1.02	+0.93
15	KC	10.06	9.56	+0.50
16	BAL	0.89	0.47	+0.43
17	SEA	1.28	1.23	+0.05
18	SF	3.14	3.72	−0.58
19	MIN	-1.35	-0.43	−0.92
20	HOU	-10.24	-9.07	−1.16
21	NYJ	-7.27	-5.87	−1.40
22	WAS	-4.68	-3.26	−1.42
23	DAL	1.41	4.44	−3.03
24	LAC	-1.60	3.60	−5.20
25	TEN	-5.12	0.14	−5.26
26	GB	-0.42	7.19	−7.61
27	DEN	-6.81	0.83	−7.64
28	NE	-5.64	3.52	−9.16
29	LAR	-5.84	4.08	−9.92
30	ARI	-7.84	2.43	−10.27
31	TB	-4.89	6.42	−11.31
32	IND	-11.71	3.20	−14.91

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99

EXP since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (15.34), 2019 Ravens (12.49), 2020 Packers (12.18), 2021 Chiefs (9.56), 2022 Chiefs (10.06).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 15.34; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -16.05.

The league average has fallen from -0.74 in 2018 to -1.37 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.