What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Chiefs led at 15.34; the league average was -0.74.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

KC · 15.34

League average

-0.74

Best to worst

31.39

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	15.34	16
2	NO	9.44	16
3	LAR	9.12	16
4	SEA	4.67	16
5	ATL	4.57	16
6	LAC	4.44	16
7	NE	4.08	16
8	PIT	3.49	16
9	IND	3.09	16
10	CAR	3.07	16
11	PHI	1.79	16
12	TB	1.26	16
13	NYG	0.98	16
14	BAL	0.96	16
15	GB	0.75	16
16	HOU	0.75	16
17	CHI	-0.44	16
18	CIN	-0.69	16
19	TEN	-1.75	16
20	DAL	-1.92	16
21	SF	-2.55	16
22	DEN	-3.57	16
23	DET	-4.12	16
24	CLE	-4.31	16
25	WAS	-4.77	16
26	LV	-5.70	16
27	MIA	-7.43	16
28	MIN	-7.55	16
29	NYJ	-8.32	16
30	JAX	-9.18	16
31	BUF	-13.28	16
32	ARI	-16.05	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 15.34

League laggard

ARI · -16.05

League average

-0.74

Spread (max − min)

31.39

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	15.34	16.09	100%
2	NO	9.44	10.19	96.8%
3	LAR	9.12	9.86	93.5%
4	SEA	4.67	5.41	90.3%
5	ATL	4.57	5.31	87.1%
6	LAC	4.44	5.19	83.9%
7	NE	4.08	4.82	80.6%
8	PIT	3.49	4.23	77.4%
9	IND	3.09	3.83	74.2%
10	CAR	3.07	3.81	71%
11	PHI	1.79	2.53	67.7%
12	TB	1.26	2.01	64.5%
13	NYG	0.98	1.72	61.3%
14	BAL	0.96	1.71	58.1%
15	GB	0.75	1.50	54.8%
16	HOU	0.75	1.50	51.6%
17	CHI	-0.44	0.31	48.4%
18	CIN	-0.69	0.05	45.2%
19	TEN	-1.75	-1.00	41.9%
20	DAL	-1.92	-1.17	38.7%
21	SF	-2.55	-1.80	35.5%
22	DEN	-3.57	-2.83	32.3%
23	DET	-4.12	-3.37	29%
24	CLE	-4.31	-3.56	25.8%
25	WAS	-4.77	-4.03	22.6%
26	LV	-5.70	-4.96	19.4%
27	MIA	-7.43	-6.69	16.1%
28	MIN	-7.55	-6.80	12.9%
29	NYJ	-8.32	-7.58	9.7%
30	JAX	-9.18	-8.43	6.5%
31	BUF	-13.28	-12.53	3.2%
32	ARI	-16.05	-15.30	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.