What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the 49ers led at 9.54; the league average was -2.59.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

SF · 9.54

League average

-2.59

Best to worst

24.76

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	SF	9.54	17
2	DAL	7.96	17
3	MIA	5.71	17
4	BUF	5.14	17
5	PHI	4.31	17
6	BAL	4.09	17
7	GB	2.36	17
8	DET	1.56	17
9	SEA	1.25	17
10	LAR	-0.13	17
11	KC	-0.24	17
12	CIN	-0.43	17
13	TB	-1.55	17
14	HOU	-1.61	17
15	TEN	-2.47	17
16	JAX	-2.50	17
17	IND	-3.15	17
18	ARI	-3.55	17
19	DEN	-3.59	17
20	NO	-3.81	17
21	MIN	-3.91	17
22	LAC	-4.71	17
23	CHI	-5.00	17
24	LV	-5.92	17
25	PIT	-5.93	17
26	WAS	-6.93	17
27	ATL	-7.24	17
28	CLE	-8.81	17
29	CAR	-10.98	17
30	NYG	-12.28	17
31	NE	-14.75	17
32	NYJ	-15.22	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

SF · 9.54

League laggard

NYJ · -15.22

League average

-2.59

Spread (max − min)

24.76

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	SF	9.54	12.12	100%
2	DAL	7.96	10.55	96.8%
3	MIA	5.71	8.30	93.5%
4	BUF	5.14	7.73	90.3%
5	PHI	4.31	6.90	87.1%
6	BAL	4.09	6.67	83.9%
7	GB	2.36	4.94	80.6%
8	DET	1.56	4.14	77.4%
9	SEA	1.25	3.83	74.2%
10	LAR	-0.13	2.45	71%
11	KC	-0.24	2.34	67.7%
12	CIN	-0.43	2.16	64.5%
13	TB	-1.55	1.04	61.3%
14	HOU	-1.61	0.98	58.1%
15	TEN	-2.47	0.12	54.8%
16	JAX	-2.50	0.09	51.6%
17	IND	-3.15	-0.57	48.4%
18	ARI	-3.55	-0.96	45.2%
19	DEN	-3.59	-1.01	41.9%
20	NO	-3.81	-1.22	38.7%
21	MIN	-3.91	-1.32	35.5%
22	LAC	-4.71	-2.12	32.3%
23	CHI	-5.00	-2.41	29%
24	LV	-5.92	-3.33	25.8%
25	PIT	-5.93	-3.34	22.6%
26	WAS	-6.93	-4.34	19.4%
27	ATL	-7.24	-4.65	16.1%
28	CLE	-8.81	-6.22	12.9%
29	CAR	-10.98	-8.39	9.7%
30	NYG	-12.28	-9.69	6.5%
31	NE	-14.75	-12.16	3.2%
32	NYJ	-15.22	-12.64	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

EXP in 2023 vs 2022

49ers lead at 9.54 — they ranked #6 last year. Jets are last at -15.22 — #29 last year.

The league average is -2.59, down 1.22 from -1.37 last year.

Biggest riser: Rams, #27 → #10. Biggest faller: Giants, #8 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 24.76; 21 teams are within 5.98 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

HOU · +8.63

Biggest faller

NYG · −14.27

Most consistent

SEA · −0.04

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -1.22

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	HOU	-1.61	-10.24	+8.63
2	IND	-3.15	-11.71	+8.55
3	DAL	7.96	1.41	+6.55
4	SF	9.54	3.14	+6.40
5	LAR	-0.13	-5.84	+5.71
6	ARI	-3.55	-7.84	+4.29
7	MIA	5.71	1.50	+4.21
8	TB	-1.55	-4.89	+3.34
9	DEN	-3.59	-6.81	+3.22
10	BAL	4.09	0.89	+3.19
11	GB	2.36	-0.42	+2.78
12	TEN	-2.47	-5.12	+2.65
13	NO	-3.81	-4.36	+0.55
14	SEA	1.25	1.28	−0.04
15	PHI	4.31	4.79	−0.47
16	CHI	-5.00	-3.36	−1.64
17	WAS	-6.93	-4.68	−2.24
18	BUF	5.14	7.40	−2.26
19	DET	1.56	3.96	−2.40
20	MIN	-3.91	-1.35	−2.56
21	LAC	-4.71	-1.60	−3.11
22	CIN	-0.43	3.46	−3.88
23	PIT	-5.93	-1.44	−4.49
24	JAX	-2.50	2.37	−4.87
25	LV	-5.92	-0.09	−5.83
26	ATL	-7.24	-0.17	−7.06
27	NYJ	-15.22	-7.27	−7.95
28	CAR	-10.98	-2.69	−8.28
29	CLE	-8.81	-0.43	−8.37
30	NE	-14.75	-5.64	−9.11
31	KC	-0.24	10.06	−10.31
32	NYG	-12.28	1.99	−14.27

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

EXP since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (15.34), 2019 Ravens (12.49), 2020 Packers (12.18), 2021 Chiefs (9.56), 2022 Chiefs (10.06), 2023 49ers (9.54).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 15.34; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -16.05.

The league average has fallen from -0.74 in 2018 to -2.59 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.