What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Lions led at 11.62; the league average was 0.98.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

DET · 11.62

League average

0.98

Best to worst

24.62

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DET	11.62	17
2	BAL	11.44	17
3	BUF	10.91	17
4	WAS	9.82	17
5	TB	8.50	17
6	CIN	7.47	17
7	PHI	6.74	17
8	GB	5.77	17
9	ARI	5.03	17
10	KC	4.35	17
11	LAC	3.14	17
12	DEN	2.10	17
13	MIN	1.87	17
14	SF	1.87	17
15	LAR	1.39	17
16	ATL	0.95	17
17	PIT	0.54	17
18	JAX	0.51	17
19	NYJ	-0.34	17
20	SEA	-0.79	17
21	HOU	-1.01	17
22	MIA	-1.21	17
23	IND	-2.90	17
24	CAR	-3.10	17
25	DAL	-3.90	17
26	NO	-4.04	17
27	CHI	-4.26	17
28	NE	-5.19	17
29	NYG	-6.86	17
30	TEN	-7.26	17
31	LV	-8.75	17
32	CLE	-13.01	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DET · 11.62

League laggard

CLE · -13.01

League average

0.98

Spread (max − min)

24.62

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DET	11.62	10.64	100%
2	BAL	11.44	10.46	96.8%
3	BUF	10.91	9.93	93.5%
4	WAS	9.82	8.84	90.3%
5	TB	8.50	7.52	87.1%
6	CIN	7.47	6.49	83.9%
7	PHI	6.74	5.76	80.6%
8	GB	5.77	4.79	77.4%
9	ARI	5.03	4.05	74.2%
10	KC	4.35	3.36	71%
11	LAC	3.14	2.16	67.7%
12	DEN	2.10	1.12	64.5%
13	MIN	1.87	0.89	61.3%
14	SF	1.87	0.89	58.1%
15	LAR	1.39	0.40	54.8%
16	ATL	0.95	-0.03	51.6%
17	PIT	0.54	-0.45	48.4%
18	JAX	0.51	-0.47	45.2%
19	NYJ	-0.34	-1.32	41.9%
20	SEA	-0.79	-1.77	38.7%
21	HOU	-1.01	-1.99	35.5%
22	MIA	-1.21	-2.19	32.3%
23	IND	-2.90	-3.88	29%
24	CAR	-3.10	-4.08	25.8%
25	DAL	-3.90	-4.88	22.6%
26	NO	-4.04	-5.03	19.4%
27	CHI	-4.26	-5.25	16.1%
28	NE	-5.19	-6.17	12.9%
29	NYG	-6.86	-7.85	9.7%
30	TEN	-7.26	-8.24	6.5%
31	LV	-8.75	-9.73	3.2%
32	CLE	-13.01	-13.99	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

EXP in 2024 vs 2023

Lions lead at 11.62 — they ranked #8 last year. Browns are last at -13.01 — #28 last year.

The league average is 0.98, up 3.57 from -2.59 last year.

Biggest riser: Commanders, #26 → #4. Biggest faller: Cowboys, #2 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 24.62; 21 teams are within 6.05 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +16.75

Biggest faller

DAL · −11.86

Most consistent

NO · −0.24

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▲ 3.57

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	WAS	9.82	-6.93	+16.75
2	NYJ	-0.34	-15.22	+14.89
3	DET	11.62	1.56	+10.06
4	TB	8.50	-1.55	+10.05
5	NE	-5.19	-14.75	+9.56
6	ARI	5.03	-3.55	+8.58
7	ATL	0.95	-7.24	+8.18
8	CIN	7.47	-0.43	+7.90
9	CAR	-3.10	-10.98	+7.87
10	LAC	3.14	-4.71	+7.85
11	BAL	11.44	4.09	+7.36
12	PIT	0.54	-5.93	+6.46
13	MIN	1.87	-3.91	+5.78
14	BUF	10.91	5.14	+5.77
15	DEN	2.10	-3.59	+5.69
16	NYG	-6.86	-12.28	+5.42
17	KC	4.35	-0.24	+4.59
18	GB	5.77	2.36	+3.41
19	JAX	0.51	-2.50	+3.01
20	PHI	6.74	4.31	+2.42
21	LAR	1.39	-0.13	+1.52
22	CHI	-4.26	-5.00	+0.73
23	HOU	-1.01	-1.61	+0.60
24	IND	-2.90	-3.15	+0.26
25	NO	-4.04	-3.81	−0.24
26	SEA	-0.79	1.25	−2.03
27	LV	-8.75	-5.92	−2.84
28	CLE	-13.01	-8.81	−4.20
29	TEN	-7.26	-2.47	−4.79
30	MIA	-1.21	5.71	−6.92
31	SF	1.87	9.54	−7.67
32	DAL	-3.90	7.96	−11.86

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71

EXP since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (15.34), 2019 Ravens (12.49), 2020 Packers (12.18), 2021 Chiefs (9.56), 2022 Chiefs (10.06), 2023 49ers (9.54), 2024 Lions (11.62).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 7 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 15.34; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -16.05.

The league average has risen from -0.74 in 2018 to 0.98 in 2024.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.